CheeselandSkies

I keep seeing that term crop up. My understanding of the phrase "death ridge" among the wx nerd community is that's a ridge in May or June that shuts down chase season prematurely (or basically the pattern seen for the better part of the last six or so springs, although the failure mode isn't always ridging per se). After the summer solstice, it's kind of an expected feature of Plains weather.

Day 4 outlook contains the entire state of WI. Here's MKX's take: They didn't even mention the Day 4 highlight, probably so as to avoid explicitly disagreeing with SPC, but it's pretty rare to see them implicitly do so anyway.

Kinda scratching my head at that Day 5 outlook too...GFS has an interesting parameter space for Tuesday but (as usual this year) a very strong cap. MKX doesn't even mention severe for Tuesday in their AFD or HWO.

Marginal dropped for today, lol.

SVR just went out for Dodge County.

850s been torching all year, that's why we've seen so many underachieving severe threats...or so I'm told.

Wrong month, guys.

GR Level 3 showing a lot of shear markers with those discrete cells in Green/Rock Counties...however velocities don't look that strong.

Carbon copy of yesterday...storms firing up from northern Grant to Rock Counties and training ESE.

OK, if this produces a tornado I'm gonna be annoyed after chasing yesterday and sitting out today, because we're in sub-2%.

Watch likely for S. WI/N. IL/north-central to northeastern Iowa: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1382.html @cyclone77, @hawkeye_wx, @hlcater still getting left out. @A-L-E-K and the rest of the Chicago crowd are in.

SPC 20Z outlook explicitly mentions this complex is expected to affect southern WI, but they steadfastly refused to increase our probabilities. 30% hatched extended to MS River, however.

Quite the inflow notch there.

Got a feeling this bow echo has some surprises in store. Our mets this morning weren't very enthusiastic on the severe potential for our area (in line with SPC). However most models seem to have the instability gradient right across southern Wisconsin. Had an enjoyable little chase yesterday, following the lead cell from near Orfordville to near Beloit. Showed some supercell characteristics visually and on radar. Didn't realize "Ryan Hall, Y'all" had chasers active in WI, but I guess I shouldn't be surprised. DSLR pics later.

I thought that little guy firing up over by Blanchardville looked suspicious. Could be what the HRRR was hinting at, although the signal weakened somewhat during the day. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1364.html

"Here comes the sun..."

Tornado warning with the very HP supercell crossing I-39 just south of I-80. Go figure, rotation looked stronger before the warning went out. Sporadic reports of minor wind damage with that southeast-moving line segment crossing the WI/IL line.

HRRR seems to be dropping the idea of significant supercells traversing southern Wisconsin this evening, despite some clearing nosing its way into SW WI.

13Z HRRR is, um... interesting. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

SPC up to 5% on the prob at 13Z. Looks like another day this year I can't ignore, as much as I might want to (4/30, 5/19, 5/25).

21/7/4. 145 ACE. Put a sock in it.

We've had the setups, they just always verify up north in the trees (6/15) or something hoses them day of (3/28/20). August marginal risks are where it's at.

3K NAM gets a little frisky with the MCS over southern WI/northern IL overnight Monday-Tuesday, and fires up another one Tuesday evening.

Latest MKX AFD... Sounds good to me.

Yeah, it was not good. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk