George BM

@BlizzardNole Hmm... Not too often I see this profile pic outside of winter. 75/65 at IAD atm.

BWI: 10/04 IAD: 10/04 DCA: 10/26 RIC: 10/12 Tiebreaker: 87F

If this can track far enough NW,@losetoa6 may be able to score a full TWO hundredths of an inch of rain. That's right. Not even one hundredth, but TWO.

This is going to be the second system in a row where the rain we get is from remnant tropical. The third event in a row with a tropical connection (There was tropical moisture from 94L on Sept 10th). There have been four storm systems (including this one just starting to affect us now) to affect us this month. Of those four systems only the first system (the one that gave some of us severe weather on September 3rd) did not have tropical connections. ... Man... I REALLY need to work on my grammar... Hopefully you all understood what I said.

@yoda Hmm... LWX radar down indefinitely... a strong trough moving in early/mid next week... Verifying Moderate risk day, here we come!

November of last year ended up with below average temperatures overall. So yeah probably last year.... but then again also the year before including the November 15th, 2018 snow event for some.

Maybe an early season snow chase at Canaan from moisture on the west side of a decent tropical remnant hit in the DMV region.

This is just me being 'Curious George' but what would the winter weather pattern look like if there was ever a "super" la nina (ONI < -2.0C)? - TIA

Let's just go all the way for a super La Nina. It would be interesting to see what it would do during winter and next spring. Severe weather train rolling on for months?

IAD got down to 38F. I saw frost on the roofs of some houses earlier. There's still about 80 minutes of astronomical summer left.

Meanwhile, cicada storms are around the corner.

Oh. I thought that you'd put 780F because of the asteroid set to strike the DMV region on October 28th. Nevermind. But I think I'll go 783F for the tie breaker.

Nah... snowfall rates need to be AT LEAST as intense as they were during your 'Spooky Scary Goose Whiteout'. Heck, why stop there. We should go all the way for @RDM's vertigo glacier special. A couple QLCS spin-ups along the leading edge would be a nice touch as well.

I'm 24.

Two years earlier for you (probably): "I've never seen it this wet and nasty in the 40 years I've been alive."

Looking at the radar you may actually fairly easily get another 0.00" of rain through the remainder of the evening and into the overnight hours.

Wow! What a game changer.

Finally seeing a faint orange/red circle 30 minutes after sunrise.

I cannot see the sun through the smoky haze yet over 20 minutes after sunrise.

Today will feature a slightly smoky sky following this mornings clouds from the Western US wildfires. Now we won't see Star Wars-level orange skies though... just skies similar to some of the smoky skies we experienced in July of 2014.

Even with Laura. You would find it hard to believe that it was fairly decently sized storm not far from a Cat 5 at landfall in Louisiana 48-60 hrs before the remnants came right over the region. It somehow became scattered tropical downpours that affected the usual spots and missed the usual spots(aka your dust bowl, @BlizzardNole's yard and MBY... probably because its energy got strung out along the associated cold front. ... Hmmm... I'm starting to get good at being EJ. @Eskimo Joe You might be getting replaced.

It can be frustratingly hard to get decent tropical remnants up here as you probably know WAY too well. Over the years I've noticed how the weather pattern has done everything in its power to prevent us from seeing good remnants. If a tropical system is near the Florida/southeast US coast a trough will often be right there to curve it out to the NE to our southeast. If a tropical system is in the GOM the flow will often become configured in a way that will prevent it from moving NE towards us. Often it will stall out or meander slowly in the south and southeastern US or if it is on the move it will track WAY to our west. But I'm just rambling/venting and am almost definitely biased because of how much I weenie for extreme weather... and I'm no expert anyway. I know that it has been quite dry IYY lately. Hopefully you get a 3-foot deluge soon and then get thundersnow supercells w/ tornadoes all winter long.

Pwats are around 2.3-2.4". These are going to be some real gully-washers.

56/54 at IAD this morning.

667 WWUS20 KWNS 031938 SEL5 SPC WW 031938 DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-040200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 340 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE GREATER WASHINGTON D.C. AREA AND SPREAD EAST AS A CLUSTER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MID-EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DE TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PATUXENT RIVER MD. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.