George BM

This is just me being 'Curious George' but what would the winter weather pattern look like if there was ever a "super" la nina (ONI < -2.0C)? - TIA

667 WWUS20 KWNS 031938 SEL5 SPC WW 031938 DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-040200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 340 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE GREATER WASHINGTON D.C. AREA AND SPREAD EAST AS A CLUSTER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MID-EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON DE TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PATUXENT RIVER MD. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

From the 1630z SPC: OTHERWISE, STORM-SCALE CLUSTERING AND THE DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY YIELD A COUPLE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH 45-65 KT GUSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND SWATHS TO THE COAST.

I just got back from looking at some of the mesoscale guidance for tomorrow and thought: "Hmm... I bet @high risk made an appearance in the severe thread this morning." Now we patiently await the day that we are actually put under your namesake AND it verifies.

Those storms firing up in NW Pennsylvania look like good candidates for the main event here.

Did you also notice the Day 5 15% risk for us?

Mesoscale Discussion 1373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Areas affected...northern Virginia...eastern West Virginia...much of Maryland...and the District of Columbia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012000Z - 012200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Convection over eastern West Virginia will gradually spread eastward, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. A WW may eventually be needed pending convective trends. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has developed across portions of eastern West Virginia over the past hour or so, with one cell showing signs of broad/weak rotation aloft. The airmass supporting these storms has become moderately unstable, with 70s F dewpoints and 80s F surface temperatures resulting in 2000-2500 J/kg along and south of a warm front located from PIT to WAL. The cells are also in a weakly forced synoptic environment, with a mid-level trough located well west of the region. Nevertheless, weak inhibition and buoyancy in tandem with weak surface confluence has fostered initial development in eastern West Virginia. This regime should continue through the evening, with 30-40 knots of deep shear fostering organization. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with this activity, although a tornado cannot be ruled out given favored cellular storm mode and potential for updraft interactions with the aforementioned warm front. Convective trends are being monitored, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed especially if a greater concentration of convection can be achieved through nightfall. ..Cook/Bunting.. 08/01/2020

SLGT shifted ENE to the Potomac river. (1300z update)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 393 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Western and Central Maryland South Central Pennsylvania Northern and Central Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from NOON until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify and over the mountains of northern Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania and spread eastward this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds and perhaps hail are expected with the more intense storms today.

Yeah... It sure seems like we've not seen too many of those events this year.

Indeed. Cells taking advantage of decent speed shear with otherwise modest instability would do that.

Did you lose power and/or notice any damage to your house after it took a direct hit from lightning during the June 4th storm?

Indeed. Now parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region are under a moderate risk of severe weather (45% hatched wind)... only the second moderate risk or greater anywhere in the US since April.

Lots of models have been hinting at a strong shortwave trough interacting with Cristobal's remnant circulation and becoming negatively-tilted through the Ohio Valley. The GFS has been most aggressive and fastest model when it comes to swinging the cold front associated with the shortwave through the region (late Wednesday). Most other models are slower with the cold front and have weaker shear/dynamics as a result of the shortwave being farther away from us by the time the front passes through (Wednesday night/ early Thursday) as well as poor timing heating-wise anyway. Should the shortwave and front be a bit faster, like the GFS shows, there could be a severe threat come later Wednesday given the warm/moist airmass that should be in place from Cristobal. Just me thinking out loud. It's a bit of a long shot atm given how different the GFS is from other models timing-wise. Well have to see how the interaction takes place between the two main features. #Notanexpertopinion

Being in a spot that normally misses out on storms this evenings storm was a decent one my MBY standards. Sheets of rain w/ 40+ mph wind gusts at times. Better than normal for MBY.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights Next in line.

Yeap. I haven't noticed any lightning though.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/pennsylvania/philadelphia/?cam=philly Enjoy.

Verbatim, it would be a nice fast-moving line with good wind potential if CAPE ended up better than modeled... not that I'm implying that it will be.

Congrats intermountain NW?

I'm just glad that I was not old enough (4 years old) to remember that debacle of an 'event'.

Yeap. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 666 STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000 THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MARYLAND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA CENTRASL AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 700 PM EDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. ALSO...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 95 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND. REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION... CONTINUE...WW 665... DISCUSSION...INTENSE BOW ECHO OVER SERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD AT 55 KT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ACTIIVTY WILL REACH THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC AREA AROUND 5 PM. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27055.

August. August 9, 2000 to be exact. It was even Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666. Lol.

For todays risk look out for how much high level cloud cover we get from the storms currently developing in the Carolinas.