George BM

I'm low-key watching the post-Barry remnants period. While areas to the north are definitely favored a ring of fire type pattern looks fairly likely to make an appearance.

Happy Birthday Mr. Reaper!

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1123 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-503>506-VAZ052>054-506-042330- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0006.190704T1700Z-190705T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 1123 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, and Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park. * Until 8 PM EDT this evening * Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop after 1 PM this afternoon before diminishing early this evening. Torrential rainfall rates may lead to totals exceeding 2 inches in a short period of time. This may cause flash flooding of small streams and other poor drainage urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$

My friends my friends welcome to the club!

95/69 IAD 5:10pm edt Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Yeapers on a bigly reaper stick drenched in weenie tears. It's become a yearly tradition.

I'm watching the activity in Michigan right now (MCV with some convection) that will drop to the southeast throughout the day. CAPE will be limited early but could rise to over 1,000 J/kg (mlcape that is) especially west of I-95 by mid-late afternoon ( the later it gets the higher CAPE gets). It will be interesting to see whether anything can grow upscale a bit and move in from the northwest later.

No I meant just tomorrow morning. A beautiful start. Now if we get HX of 115F+ with 7000+j/kg mlcape and 80+kt deep-layer flow... wait what happened? Anyway 50's/low 60's tomorrow morning would be beautiful indeed.

A beautiful start to a great summer month.

Holiday Season approaches.

SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 462 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Cluster of strong thunderstorms over south-central Pennsylvania may cross into portions of Maryland and Delaware, while additional development occurs farther west. Scattered damaging winds are the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south of Hagerstown MD to 25 miles southeast of Dover DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 460...WW 461... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Grams

Hail 1"+ in diameter (quarter sized or greater)

There is some decent mlcape and low-level lapse rates as well as of 16z.

SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 461 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far northern Delaware Far northeast Maryland New Jersey South-central New York Central and eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will spread east across a large portion of Pennsylvania and adjacent states through early evening. Embedded strong wind gusts producing damage will be the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of State College PA to 20 miles south southeast of Newark NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 460... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025.

That's good, thank you.

If it won't bother you too much could you post a link to the 5 min obs please?

While it definitely doesn't look like much atm I wouldn't completely sleep on Monday. With increasing cape and modest shear if a remnant MCV moves in from the west it could spark something. Again, it's definitely not much atm but something to watch... perhaps.

Oh hell yeah! Those patterns brings around a lower risk of my yard being in the middle of Splitsville (as well as the negatively tilted trough pattern). It needs to come with deep-layer flow AOA 50KTS as well. Give me an 1893 Atlantic Hurricane Season repeat, an October 1878, or a Hazel. October 15, 1954 was an absolutely marvelous day in the area.

Psssst... We abscond the 18z hrdps.

Random note: This Thursday marks 6 years since the immediate area was last under a moderate risk.

If only we could get a Bill 2015 track repeat but with a very powerful southeast ridge in place. An example: Say, a category 1 landfall near Houston, TX Tuesday night, June 18, 2019. Then the fast-flow around the ridge combined with a shortwave moving in from the north slingshots it to this region by Thursday afternoon June 20, 2019 as a ~990mb low bringing backing SSE winds and upper 70's/80F dewpoints and mid 90'sF air temperatures yielding mlcape ~4000J/kg despite warm temperature profiles aloft with 50-60+kt EBWD and 250-350+ m2/s2 effective shear bringing a goodly severe threat to the region. Sorry. Weenie mode getting carried away. But you hopefully get my drift.

1893 tropical system tracks redux with a Hazel and 1878 track thrown in with mid 30's Celsius water temps off the SE coast and in the Gulf of Mexico please... pretty please with 22 cherries on top.

Happy Eleven Year Anniversary weenies!

Sure that wasn't 2014?

Hopefully while occasionally getting into an enhanced 65+kt mid-level "ring of fire" flow. Epic Derecho train FTW!... And then the waters off the southeast coast and in the GOM can rise into the low/mid 30's celsius for peak hurricane season while we get a 1893 repeat in storm tracks. dot dot dot 68/50 at IAD with 20+mph wind gusts as of 10:37am edt Monday, June 3, 2019