George BM

The Tennessee tornado becomes the first violent tornado of the year in the US.

Me thinks some get too heated over things that don't affect them.

Clearing.

A low risk of some thunder and perhaps some gusty winds tomorrow depending on the amount of sunshine we can get. Low-level lapse rates look steep... with mid-level lapse rates looking somewhat steep as well. And FWIW... SPC doesn't even have us in a 10% thunder risk for tomorrow so...

Drink safely!

Meteorological Spring is upon us!

@WxWatcher007 What is your guesstimate of the maximum snowfall rates that you've encountered up their over the past few days? Have you heard any thunder or seen any lightning?

I personally say (if you have the time) Map. Go for it.

If the surface low of that mid next week system can track just off to our northwest lots of models have some impressive wind fields. CAPE would be the main question though mainly because of warmer low/mid-level temperatures... and also climo in general (it's still on the early side)... Though the February 7th system probably has a few choice words for me about that "climo" statement.

They made a reference to that event in the 1630z update.

Day 2 MRGL wind in southern zones.

@Kmlwx Indeed I am. June 23rd is around the corner.

Knowing our luck... probably. My ideal pattern over the next couple months, say through June, would be for this pattern to last through early May. Then the NAO will tank to strongly negative from say May 10th onward while a ridge builds into western Canada over a trough in the western US (-EPO/-PNA) allowing for a ridge to build over the southern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the nation east of the Rockies while a trough gets locked in between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay in response to the ridge nosing into western Canada(-EPO) AND the ridge over Greenland (-NAO). Think May 30-31, 1998 but through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic instead.

I just hope that we can keep this general pattern over the next couple of months.

Yes. I’ve actually seen your work occasionally for the past few years now. As for the June 23 tornado/derecho event I actually posted a radar image of it at the very beginning of this thread as the event was getting underway locally. Finally, I should think that you were around for it. But I may be mistaken... it was a time of year where lots of people travel after all.

Well see how things look after our back to back HECSs on March 29th and April 1st. Also on a slightly (emphasis on slightly) more serious note... I'm really looking forward to your map of the June 23rd Tornado Outbreak/Derecho Blowdown event in this region. You are very good at what you do. Many of us always thought that the 2012 derecho was as extreme as it gets severe-wise around here. Boy was that wrong in a big way... In other words... yeah I'm not winning.

12/11: 0.3" 12/16: 0.3" 1/07: 2.4" 1/18: 0.4" Total as of 2/21/2020: 3.4"

Never been. It probably didn’t help that I was an incoming freshman at 28 years old and had to retake 20 credits from the classes that I ditched back in ‘81. Wait... you're all the way up there?! ... Also, happy 1,000th to me!

Funny. My car alignment actually IS a little off to the right. ... I'm sure most people do have a slight alignment issue with there car though. So probably not to big of a coincidence to have it mentioned.

In other words... a fairly decent tropical hit. I abscond.

Wallops Island launch will take place at 3:21pm est. Less than 15 minutes from now. ... Assuming it's not scrubbed again of course.

Not going to lie... you threw me in a loop for a second there... until I read the end of the post. Yeah 5 years ago at this moment the heaviest part of that snow squall was getting ready to wind down here. It was my favorite minor snow event here for sure.