George BM

Hopefully the TPV can trend a bit further south so we will have a shot at some snow squalls come Friday.

Do you mean the TGI Friday’s in the Worldgate Centre with the AMC movie theater by the large Marriot hotel? If so, that’s basically my neighborhood. Is that AMC Worldgate theater the one you went to?

Hey welcome aboard! Models are definitely honing in on a storm around that general area a week from now. However, it's a week out with another storm coming a few days before (Monday/Tuesday) that could affect the Thursday storm. Things will definitely change around on the models between now and then. Hopefully by game time it looks like that but displaced about 100 miles further NW. I'll let more experienced posters like @CAPE and @psuhoffman answer you though. I hope that this helps! BTW, I assume that from your screenname you are from Leesburg, VA?

Dec 7,9,14,25/2020: T Dec 16-17, 2020: 2.1" Dec 18, 2020: 0.2" Jan 5, 2021: T Jan 20, 2021: 0.1" Total as of Jan 20, 2021: 2.4"

That's 0.1" of snow/graupel on the day.

Well that was a surprisingly decent snow/graupel shower just now. Briefly heavy and it has whitened the grass.

I had a brief and very light snow/graupel shower around 2:30pm (Herndon).

Not this winter so far OR last winter. Last time was early 2019 IIRC.

23F if I'm not mistaken.

Okay, gotcha. I would still go with the regular scheduled programming for our region. Now if those 10" events come in the form of Jan 25, 1985 type snow squalls, though... eh it would still be close for me. Conventional HECSs would be nice to experience once in a while... though I do love me some snowy severe thunderstorm QLCSs.

Well you wouldn't want to miss out on future HECSs/BECSs for two 10" events that would be the last snow we ever experience living here in our lives leading to constant depression due to "lack of blue" for you for the rest of your life... would you?

Now this only focuses on the long range HRRR but... last nights 0z run had surface winds backing to SE for tomorrow afternoon as a surface trough/low developed and move through the region (probably helped low-level convergence). The 12z does not do that and has surface winds keeping a westerly component for the afternoon (W to SW).

Just an observation: The 0z HRRR actually backs surface winds to southeasterly during the day on Saturday as it develops a surface trough/low in the mountains that moves east across the region during the afternoon/evening. This probably enhanced the convection this run.

^ @high risk is a great red-tagger to follow if you want to know about any sneaky convective potential.

Potentially of the more "convective" nature.

I'd be quite worried if time wasn't moving, actually.

@WinterWxLuvr Congratulations!

He'll be back next winter... or, more likely, sometime within the next 24 hours.

@losetoa6 You seem to be the eternal optimist. I vote that you weenie-in and amp up the Tuesday wave for us.

The 2020 Meteor coming in a week late.

I don't remember an April snow event in 2006. Do you mean 2007? It snowed during the early morning hours on April 7, 2007 and IIRC areas to the south got more snow than DC proper. I'm not entirely sure if anyone saw rates like that though.

Meanwhile, I am getting some light rain/graupel now.

The Jan 1985 event actually did drop several inches of snow in some areas of northern/central Maryland east of the mountains. With @Stormfly getting 6-7" in 40-45mins and @CAPE getting 4" in ~45mins. CAPE was living west of the bay at the time though IIRC. But your point still stands about how uncommon something like that is.

Yeah. Our standards are pretty low here in general. Once in a while we luck into more legit convective snow showers like on February 9, 2017, ... April 9, 2016 from NVA into SMD, ...and, of course, the favorite recent convective snow event in these parts... February 14, 2015. I'd love more than anything to experience a January 25, 1985 event here.

There's an interesting vorticity-max showing up on LWX radar centered near the eastern tip of the WVA Panhandle. Perhaps it enhanced any showers/snow showers this afternoon? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=LWX-N0Q-1-48-50-usa-rad