WesternFringe

You are kind of proving my point by looking so intensively at the last 30 years as if they represent the data set on whole. A running 10 to 20 year data set? It is almost like you want to massage your numbers to show a point. What is wrong with 136 yrs of data points unless it doesn’t show what you want it to show? Lol

We can suck with annual snowfall. And we can suck with almost no snowfall some years. But no one has shown me statistically that we are sucking more than we used to suck. We have always sucked. Prove me wrong, with stats. Tired of hearing the negative Nancies. I grew up in upstate NY where we averaged 65+” ETA: love Bob Chill, bc he is always grounded

I was responding to others, but yes Ji, we can get get back to the ‘fact’ that this winter is over bc you have no blue on your models. Forgive me.

Actually tired of hearing we are failing bc of climate change and not that we are failing (we haven’t failed yet for 22-23) bc of la nina which we all know to be a real thing. eta: obviously, climate change is a real thing, bc the climate has always been changing

Yeah, that is what we have been talking about. Would love to see someone show me that scenario with numbers, and not a “we should see larger events” explanation. Show me the data.

Right. And 136 is big enough ETA: I will exit stage left at this point. I am just saying, I don’t believe the doomsayers in here with regard to future snowfall. DCA is getting more snow than they were in the 1980s. The data show the rate of change since 1880s is low and negligible and likely due to statistical noise, but the human brain likes to find patterns, even when there aren’t any

Just treat it normally. We don’t treat height that way, even though it is bound by zero and the mean is low. eta: in fact, all observable occurrence data is bound by zero. That doesn’t mean we model it’s distribution differently

My whole point is not to be a downer, but the opposite. Stats say these bad years recently are aberrations and that we should have some good years coming soon! Like, good, big years!!

But again, given that you need a sample size of 18+ (30?), how can you say what the median decreasing and the standard deviation even means, when the n = 14?

Also, if you had a decade of 3,4,4,4,4,5,8,20,25,30,40,45 (like we seem to do with Ninas), is 5 inches or does 17.5” encapsulate the decade snowfall better? Not sure, just thinking aloud.

Usually studies with n=18 and higher start to become highly generalizable to the general population and those below it do not (thus my issue with looking at decade median data, especially from recent decades). Even looking at decadal data from 1880s only gives us n=14. That isn’t a generalizable sample size. At least that is what I was taught at University of Virginia when I was getting my doctorate eta: I think looking at the slope of the standard deviation from 1880s might be useful. Definitely more useful than median decadal data

Especially when I start to look at trends since the 1960s. My n = 62 will go to n = 6

n = 136 isn’t such a low number, but I can run a statistical analysis of the median of decades. I think mean is more useful over 136 years than medians of decades, which are a man-made concept, but I will take a look.

This is the link for my DC annual snowfall statistical analysis since 1888. Snowfall is barely decreasing when measured from 1880s (-.07” per year) and 1960s (-.03” per year). Snowfall is up (+0.17” per year) when measured from the 1980s. Most of the variability is random and statistical noise (96+%). Doom and gloom, in my opinion, is just human error (recency effect) when interpreting recent winters emotionally. These were my conclusions from the link above if you don’t want to view the link: Conclusions: Annual snowfall In DC has declined on average 0.07" per year since 1888. Annual snowfall In DC has declined on average 0.03" per year since 1969. Annual snowfall In DC has increased on average 0.17" per year since 1984. The vast majority of the variability (94% up to 99.8%, depending on the time period observed) from year to year is statistical noise, or random, and not due to the passage of time.

I had 28.5” last year which was a few inches above climo for here (Augusta County). Perspective is paramount, for sure.

So one in the 40s, two in the 50s, none in the 60s, one in the 70s, two in the 80s, none in the 90s, one in the 2000s, and two in the teens. Seems like a pretty consistent pattern.

Down to 16 degrees here and continuing to drop. Gusts over 40mph. Sunny. NW of Staunton

That is consistent with what LWX has been forecasting for out here in Augusta County. An inch or two of snow/sleet with .1 to .25 freezing rain.

This. I have a gut feeling we can still do snow well in a modoki nino and a nice run of plentiful snow years will put this all in perspective. Then we can better determine whether this poor run we are currently in is more cyclical in nature vs a long-term trend. We shall see.

Okay, keep us posted.

Well, exactly. Do you follow this weather board to see how much other people are getting, or how much you might get? Lol Also, I score little events out here when most of you all have given up, this place turns to banter, and Ji is jumping out windows. So, yes, I was asking how much the Euro showed for mby, and I am not sorry.

Does anyone have a VA zoomed in map of 6z Euro snowfall for this storm? To my weenie eyes, it looks like the 6z is depicting 6-8 inches in western Augusta County.

Such a blanket statement that it is almost meaningless. It matters where you live in VA and where you live in NC. I eked out 28” last year here in the valley (augusta county). Pretty sure most of NC didn’t do better than that. On the other hand, I am sure the mountains of NC do better than VA Beach at accumulating snow.

Also, there is still frozen falling at the end of its run for far western and northernmost VA.

Meanwhile, my buddy in Deadwood, SD just got a record 5 feet in a couple days. If snow is the measure, there are winners and losers in all patterns.