WesternFringe

If you read LWX’s discussion, they said they had roughly half of guidance showing 30s and wintry weather and the other half showing 70s, so they split the difference and said 40s/50s. I suspect your local news station either did the same or agrees with the trend of a NW passing system that brings in warm air from the south.

We have one more window mid-month after the 3/4 hail mary, and after that I am done tracking winter weather and rooting for 70s and working my greenhouse

I know how to read them, but okay, fair point, so multiply them by .25- still missing LOTS of snow. There have been many, many times this winter I have been in the 80%+ probability zone for more than an inch and the 50% to 90% probability zone for more than 3 inches. I have 1.5” of snow this winter with another 1-2” of sleet. They never verify this winter, even when showing high probabilities. They have been egregiously useless this winter wrt snowfall, full stop.

Yeah, we are all missing 30-50” inches vs those ensemble maps verbatim this year

Futility thread is there for a reason lol eta: Not completely giving up on this storm, but I do agree the writing is on the wall most likely. Let’s see if CAPE’s/Stormchaser Chuck’s/PSU’s mid month period works out. That combo of people is like the Euro/Icon/GFS all agreeing on a snow threat, so it is probably our best chance to salvage this craphole of a winter!

We had light rain, then heavy rain, and finally sleet here NW of Staunton.

Surrounded by SLPs- it's happening!!

The big storm is only 10 (or 11) days away! This winter sucks. Lol

Got to 70 here today

11/15/22. Wet snow mixed with the rain 11/17/22. Flurries early 11/18/22. Flurries early evening 12/15/22. 1” of sleet/snow and freezing rain 12/22/22. Trace of sleet and more freezing rain 1/8/23. Trace of Sleet and freezing rain 1/11/23 Some snow mixed with rain 1/23/23 Flurries intermittent 1/26/23 afternoon flurries 1/27/23 morning flurries 2/1/23. 1.5” snow 2/12/23 0.5” sleet and snow mixing in with rain season total: 3”

Where is the eye roll emoji?

A bunch of sleet here (1/2” accum) this morning and then cold rain. Never got above 33 today even though the forecast was for 38-41. Lots of ice so far. Seeing some big wet snow flakes mix in more often now. NWS says 1-3” tonight, but I am just hoping everything is coated white and then we stay below freezing overnight! 33° with freezing rain and snow mixing in. NW of Staunton in Augusta County. eta: 31° and freezing raining. Ice is starting to build up. Seeing some snow, but not a lot as of now.

It’s not and we get it. You are funny. Now can you please just go cheer for your eagles tomorrow and leave us alone in this storm thread that won’t come near you? Please?

Okay. Keep us posted.

Bump this, MacChump! Lol .

0Z Euro ups the ante to 2-6” for western VA. Anyone have the 6Z? .

NWS has 1-4” for Augusta County, so some of us do give a fuck. Also, why come to this unpinned storm thread to tell us who gives a fuck and that it is rain? Who does that except a troll? Go be a miserable troll elsewhere, please.

You know it is bad when a current article on accuweather says this: As the snow drought continues along the I-95 zone of the mid-Atlantic, southern cities such as Knoxville, Tennessee, have already picked up 1.6 inches, which is more than all of the snow that has fallen so far in Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City combined. A number of additional southern cities may join that list in the wake of this storm.

Which ones? They are all over the place for my backyard here out west. From 6” of snow and sleet and ice on top to sleet only to freezing rain only to a mix to just cold rain.

For you in PA, you are right... You will get no snow... But ALL of the models show snow in SW Virginia... And they will get snow...

Oh, there is still hand wringing here out west. Does my area get 2.5" qpf of snow, sleet, and rain like the 6Z GFS shows? Or do we get 0.1" of qpf per the 6Z Euro? Stark differences for these leads.

Agreed, but usually stronger lows like to climb in latitude as they amplify, so it is tough to get both adjustments unfortunately. Not saying it can’t happen, though. Fingers crossed. You all are in a much better spot than I am for this one. I about 2 or 3 counties north of your forum in Augusta County, VA at 1550 ft. Hoping for a Super Bowl miracle and then a day off from school for my kids and work since my wife and I both teach. And sledding for the first time this season! Lol But you all have a much better ULL pass going for you which is able to pull down cold air from the heavens above since there is no cold air in the eastern US or SE Canada to pull from due to the persistent SER this winter. I hope you all get obliterated with snow and someone jacks with 2 feet!

The cutoff ULL at 500 is over northeastern GA and western SC/NC at 66 hrs. At these leads, it is time to follow the ops for synoptics and precip and the NAMs for thermals/precip type. Ensembles have limited usefulness less than 3 days out and almost always start caving to higher resolution ops and mesos. This storm looks great for the places I mentioned above and for the mountains and hopefully foothills. We would want to see the ULL be even stronger for the lowlands to cash in significantly with this warm antecedent air mass. .

Yes, GFS is steadfast for the western crew, even looking at snow depth maps: .

Guidance has trended towards a slower move east of the ULL. If the neutral tilt can hold until it gets towards the east coast states and then go negative, then we all win… I know, self weenie