WesternFringe

Also this. eta: I had to take a break from this thread bc of all the vitriol and ad hominem attacks (always a good way to win an argument (eye roll)) like calling me childish. I had to laugh eventually. Imagine the vitriol if I had said we will never snow here like we have snowed before! Or if I said the data show we will never be snowy again! I wonder whether some folks here would have just nodded along and said you are right. i got attacked for saying the data don’t show a huge downturn and implying that we might get normal to above snowfall soon. And that it is location dependent and not an observable trend statistically. Lol i looked at the data set of annual snowfall with clear eyes. I took Stats 1,2,3, and 4 at UVa when studying for my doctorate. But suddenly I am trolling and childish when I say the data for DC statistically don’t show a cataclysmic drop in annual snowfall? Someone needs a reality and self over confidence/assurance check, but I don’t think it is me, since my self confidence was in the gutter following the hostile attacks last night. I stand by my data analysis, and don’t think the sky is falling and it is not is it ‘harder to snow around here’ anymore. We are just in a bad stretch for some in some parts of the mid atlantic.

This.

Well, folks are wrong then. I ran the numbers and the slope of the line is virtually zero. Yes, DC is getting .03” less per year on average over the 140 year period. That is statistical noise. DC is getting 0.17” more per year since 1960s. That is also statistical noise. The single digit snowfall years ‘trend’ is arbitrary, too. Some years with 2 recordable events might yield 9.8” for the season and some years a 10.2” total could have come from 6 recordable storms. We would need to look at snowfall per event by year to make any valid conclusions on snowstorms trending bigger or not. i am not trolling. I simply am saying the numbers in DC at least do not point to a cataclysmic drop in snowfall over the last century and a half. They just don’t.

140 years of data says otherwise. But emotion away

No, it is about how the median better represents 140 year data sets and how 10” is a magic cutoff for judging yearly snowfall in DC, as are certain decades better comparison decades than others. When in reality, annual snowfall remains much the same across 140 years. And yes, across cities as well. So, mock away. But facts are facts. And average annual snowfall is relatively unchanged in DCA in 140 years. And is relatively unchanged statistically in most east coast cities now that I am looking into it. And how many want to explain our poor run of snowfall luck and the unchanging average on more bigger storms and less smaller storms as a result of global warming. Even though global warming predicts the opposite (less big storms).

Okay, now do the 40s compared to the 2000s we can do this all day

Cherry picking. IPCC predicts less big storms as we warm, not more. Kinda destroys the whole “more big storms is the reason for the unchanging mean” narrative.

Talk about cherry picking, lol. Across many cities, we recently had our 4th best of the last 11 decades for snowfall, if we want to look by decade (which I don’t think is very smart).

I guess. I think perspective is king and the proper perspective is the whole data set, not our limited lifetimes.

I have been here, with no one showing me statistical analysis of DCA getting less snowfall on average other than noise since 1888. I can show you the equation of the line of best fit. Where have you been? ETA: teach me all you know about linear regression, SnowenOutThere. I will wait while you Google.

Since 1984, DCA has averaged 0.17” more snow more per year annually. I didn’t go by decades. Nor did I change my analysis based on that. That is a lie. I went by year markers until present with all of my analysis.

Yes, I want you to prove it with numbers, rather than emotion

Mean of 136 numbers isn’t skewed easily by a few numbers.

by that slope DCA is getting 3/100 of an inch less per year from 1880 to present. Or 17/100 of an inch more per year since the 1980s to present.

If you call looking at the slope of annual snowfall data recorded from DCA 1880 to present cherry picking or ‘slicing up the data’ lol

Yes, other than panic jumping like Ji, or mansplaining/panicking like PSU, I haven’t seen the data showing we have less snow than the 1880s. Prove me wrong.

I was going by decades. This is weird and confusing

So, less snowfall in 20teens than 1960s. N = 2

My analysis was from 1980s, not 1960s. I edited.

I guess, man. You can keep talking about how 2 and 3 and 4 don’t represent a data set that averages 22, but that doesn’t make it true. The mean, or average, of 135 data points, is generalizable. And represents the population as a whole. Generally speaking, ETA: we are getting more snow per year than when compared to the 1980s etaa: it doesn’t matter whether you like it or agreee, DCA is getting more annual snow now then they were in 1984

So, 7 minimums since the 1920s.

So low amounts of single digit snowfall are common. Got it.

You haven’t shown me data that single digit DCA snowfall is new a phenomenon that didn’t exist before close to 1888. I am all ears.

But tell me annual snowfall is decreasing at DCA since the 1980s and I can call you a liar and back it up with data