WesternFringe

Which ones? They are all over the place for my backyard here out west. From 6” of snow and sleet and ice on top to sleet only to freezing rain only to a mix to just cold rain.

For you in PA, you are right... You will get no snow... But ALL of the models show snow in SW Virginia... And they will get snow...

Oh, there is still hand wringing here out west. Does my area get 2.5" qpf of snow, sleet, and rain like the 6Z GFS shows? Or do we get 0.1" of qpf per the 6Z Euro? Stark differences for these leads.

Agreed, but usually stronger lows like to climb in latitude as they amplify, so it is tough to get both adjustments unfortunately. Not saying it can’t happen, though. Fingers crossed. You all are in a much better spot than I am for this one. I about 2 or 3 counties north of your forum in Augusta County, VA at 1550 ft. Hoping for a Super Bowl miracle and then a day off from school for my kids and work since my wife and I both teach. And sledding for the first time this season! Lol But you all have a much better ULL pass going for you which is able to pull down cold air from the heavens above since there is no cold air in the eastern US or SE Canada to pull from due to the persistent SER this winter. I hope you all get obliterated with snow and someone jacks with 2 feet!

The cutoff ULL at 500 is over northeastern GA and western SC/NC at 66 hrs. At these leads, it is time to follow the ops for synoptics and precip and the NAMs for thermals/precip type. Ensembles have limited usefulness less than 3 days out and almost always start caving to higher resolution ops and mesos. This storm looks great for the places I mentioned above and for the mountains and hopefully foothills. We would want to see the ULL be even stronger for the lowlands to cash in significantly with this warm antecedent air mass. .

Yes, GFS is steadfast for the western crew, even looking at snow depth maps: .

Guidance has trended towards a slower move east of the ULL. If the neutral tilt can hold until it gets towards the east coast states and then go negative, then we all win… I know, self weenie

Not true. If it gives my family a day beautiful day of snow watching football and a day off after the super bowl, nothing was wasted! Lol

Yes they are, but the link is on my computer at work. Will try to remember to send it to you tomorrow morning.

I miss eduggs telling everybody here that their analysis sucked and that this was a real threat for us but our simpleton surface oriented brains couldn’t process it. Those were good times. Lol Obviously I hope the south trend reverses in future guidance and we all score a perfect ULL pass, but I agree the chances are slim now.

Lets see what the gefs and Euro and eps say before completely giving up. The GFS hasn’t been consistent run to run for the last 6 runs, so accepting this as the inevitable final solution doesn’t make sense. Trends are against us, even out west at elevation, but still worth tracking for me at least.

Congrats, Georgia! This is the ULL bringing down cold air from that cutoff low at 500 .

It is at 500. At 18z Sunday At 12z Sunday

6Z GFS on Pivotal shows 2.66" of ice resulting from that deform band! lol eta: Actually, this is the 0Z GFS I posted. The 6Z is not nearly as impressive, bringing 0.3" of ice

6Z Euro looks just slower to move the ULL east than 0Z, which is what LWX was saying in their recent AFD: To start, the long term forecast is riddled with uncertainties at this point regarding the progression of a strong upper-low. Recent runs of global guidance seem to be coming to some sort of agreement on the evolution of a strong trough diving out of the central CONUS into the southeast on Saturday. This system will likely cut off from the upper jet over the southeastern CONUS. From there, that is where things are a bit fuzzy. A surface low will develop to our south along the cold front that pushed through on Friday. The upper low track will be the key factor in how things evolve from here, as these are very tricky to nail down even a few days out, let alone five. That being said, the guidance has actually been trending later on this suite, bringing precip in more towards Sunday. This goes to show the uncertainty with forecasting cutoff lows in the long term. The shortwave to watch has actually entered the Pacific Northwest, so will be interesting to see if there is any sort of swing in the guidance as we get some balloon data today. There is still a real possibility that this system even slides by mostly to our south, but we will see what we can get out of the latest guidance today.

Ops are starting to be more important than ensembles at this point bc of higher resolution, right? And I count more than half that give western areas measurable snow, which I would classify as a win for this winter. eta: But I hear you and understand it would have been better to see more ensemble members show improved solutions

I know you are joking, but to be fair, that super bowl “threat” is only 7 days away! Lol

They look very, very similar at 96 hrs. They start diverging from there and have notable, significant differences by 120 hrs that increase moving forward in time.

Agreed. If one truly thinks that things are so desperately bad that we can’t snow well in the MA anymore, then why visit this medium to long range thread? It makes no sense to me. The only good reason to devote this many hours to a hobby that hasn’t produced much in the last several years for many in the sub is because one thinks it can snow well still. If one doesn’t think so, aren’t they kind of trolling us? On the other hand, if one does think it can still snow big and/or often, why keep pointing out the failures over the last few years and insinuating that this is the new permanent base state? ETA: for the record, I believe it can and will snow big and often again in the MA. In the meantime, I will be tracking my ass off until it happens! Lol

I noticed it! Probably because I am an inlander at elevation lol. But it is much more fun in here when we all score, so I root for that all day every day. And thanks for posting great analysis. Appreciate the hopeful but honest takes from you and brooklyn and many others on here. You all have taught this Yankee who grew up with plenty of snow in upstate NY in the 80s a lot about the science behind snow. Happy hour is upon us shortly. Cheers!

I think we have some good chances left this winter. Feb. 10-12 is a chance. I think people were over-analyzing a Day 10 Euro op run earlier. Let’s watch the ensembles and hopefully get something to track that can change the vibe for all of us snow lovers!

Have about 1.5” and lightly snowing still at 30° here in Augusta County.

33/33 nw of Staunton. Drizzle. Won’t lose any frozen to virga at least. Very soon the column cools enough and we should see actual snow here!

Models keep mini jacking Augusta County. 1-3” from pretty much all guidance. Let’s go!!

36° and misting NW of Staunton I have been watching this minor threat like a hawk for days now because even when it wasn’t showing anything for most of the subforum, the models kept keying on Augusta County for a mini jack. Super glad to see the Euro and NAMs jump aboard today and the trend towards a norther and more expansive precip field so that the majority of the sub hopefully sees at least some snow. We got this!