WesternFringe
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Everything posted by WesternFringe
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All (wet) snow has started! ETA: pouring snow
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37°, but equal amounts of snow and sleet mixing with rain now
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Rain mixing with sleet and a random huge snowflake mixing in, too! nw of Staunton
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39° and rain, models show it flipping to mix and then snow in less than 2 hrs. Fingers crossed Meanwhile, Cowboys vs Eagles with the wood stove!
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Looks like 1-3” and 32° for western part of our county! We take!
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But it was never forecast to changeover until…..
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Sorry, at times I can’t tell the difference between those on here who have been legit panicking and debbing and those employing sarcasm.
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It was never forecast to start as anything but warm rain, but if it is stressing y’all out, there is a panic room!
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Rain and thunder with 55° here in Augusta County NW of Staunton
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Any way to zoom out that map a little more? Lol I think it says 2-4” for Augusta County, but not really sure!
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If you are talking accumulation, I get it. Just saying the 850s are really good on the back end of the front regardless of the surface temp In Pittsburgh, which many in this forum have elevation on
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Look at the 850 temps. Pittsburgh?
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TT's map looks way different than WB's...
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GFS has mby fringed on the east of the best snow, NAM has me fringed on the west. Seems legit- lol.
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It's an op run at range, which isn't worth discussing.
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36 and flurries here in Swoope in Augusta County
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Now we are retroactively downgrading storms from the past based on the present. Lol. Awesome! ETA: Nothing would be at all the same about the 500 progression or the surface if there were different temperatures at play. But pretend like you could change one variable and everything else stays the same! Only PSU is allowed to do that! Etaa: btw, I love PSU’s analysis (big ups, man) and learn a lot from him and CAPE And Terpeast and Eskimo Joe and Brooklyn and Mappy etc. Sincerely thank you all for the analysis.
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Western Fringed with 23” lol. Op at hour 312 for the win!
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I agree 100%. The weeklies might be good for getting a general idea of what average temps over a future time period are forecast to be, and I get that. But not sure where this idea came from that we have to average lower than normal temps over an entire week for it to snow.
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So, over a 5 day period that starts a week and a half from now, we will average 1°F over normal cold December temps. Got it.
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Some of my HS students said their thermometers at home and in their cars said 9 or 10 degrees that morning. My heat pump’s online temp said it was 14 when I checked around 8:00am that morning. Was driving an old truck instead of my car so I didn’t have the temp displayed in my own vehicle
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Y’all live and die with every op run thinking this time must be the final solution.
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Yeah, not worried about the high here today (50) affecting ground temps in 6 days, especially since the lows are below freezing on Monday and Tuesday night.
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Exactly. What are the verification scores for the Euro weeklies on temps 1-4 weeks out? How about those DJF temp maps? I honestly don’t know, but I would be surprised if they were high. What sea of warm? Last I saw, all these long range temp predictions were saying about an average December, which is cold enough to snow where I live at least. Forecast has 7 of the first 13 nights of December below freezing here.
