WesternFringe

32° and just ripping out there! Awesome storm!

Ripping fatties at 32° here northwest of Staunton in Augusta County. Coming up on 2” otg.

Started off as rain, but all went over to all snow 30 minutes ago. 33 degrees and dropping. Roads are beginning to cave.

Agreed. I am just west of the gap here in Augusta County. A typical modeling error away from not a lot of qpf. Hope it’s wrong or if not it isn’t in my or your backyard.

Honestly, I thought it dropped 2 degrees in 15 minutes but decided I might be tripping!

36°, down 2° in the last 30 minutes. nw of Staunton in Augusta County

But you don't mind stealing bread from the mouths of decadence... Back to the storm, after the 12z suite looks like 3-6" for most with booms up to 8" and busts down to 1" possible forum-wide. Hopefully AI comes in juicy in about an hour!

Ensembles aren't as useful at these lead times (<36 hours here). Ops outperform due to higher resolution.

I know you are referring to 2m temps, but it helps that most in the sub have snow cover, so the temperature at the literal surface is freezing. Even if it is slightly above freezing at 2m and just overhead, the flakes that make it to the ground will stick immediately.

Lightly snowing in Augusta County and 37° about a half an hour ago. The new snow pellets are on top of the ice footprint in the pic.

Guess I wasn’t articulating well. I have been reading and posting about the volatility and unpredictability of this pattern. I was just trying to say because of that we find ourselves with different lead times than we typically have with tracking.

Usually under 4 days from onset we are trying to nail down the track and the qpf and the thermals. With this one, we are relegated to trying to figure out whether there will be a storm or not in the vicinity.

One of the mets on here (MillvilleWx maybe?) said it was doing well up until Day 5, but not so well Days 6+

I think the train tracks (Chill, 2024) have been laid down for this winter and it seems to want to snow at our latitude. Great cold and longwave pattern and lots of shortwaves to bring us precip (PSU, 2025). We generally need three chances to score once, but some models have us going 2 for 3 or even 3 for 3 in the next couple weeks for measurable snow! Should be fun to track and I think Sunday into Monday (1st shortwave) is a increasingly good chance for a 2-4” event right now imby (Augusta County). 12z Euro showed a 12” snowstorm in frigid cold on Wednesday night after that and was reloading at the end of the run. Long range guidance looks good for snow chances possibly until the end of March (PSU, 2025) Life is good if you like cold and snow. Best luck to all in the forum! That is all.

Multiply them each by 40% and you get a 100% probability of 5-6”

Maybe AI can tell them which parts of the GFS physics model needs to be fixed and why

18z GFS at 144 is snow in nearly all of Virginia

Radio Shack model has 3-5” forum-wide!

What's the timing? 19th/20th or 21st/22nd?

Yeah he said you don’t bring it up in every single (expletive) post, so he had no idea you were the lowest

100% disagree. My family will remember this week forever. 3 rounds of snow totaling 11” and still haven’t gone above freezing since Sunday. The kids got a whole week off from school, as did my wife and I since we both teach. Sledding, fires, plowing snow, movies, blowing snow, family dinners, atv rides, jebwalks, 5° nights, etc. This area in general, and my family specifically, will remember this week in perpetuity.

In reality though, it is cold as heck. Hasn’t gone above freezing since the last storm 5 days ago. We have gotten down to 8° one night and 5° another night. Horses need water heaters in their troughs. I got 6-7” of snow/sleet/snow and then 2 inches of fluff later on Monday night. Wood stove hasn’t gone out since 5 days ago as well. Two inch refresher and the fire rages on!

Southern Alaska is colder and maybe parts of Greenland and central Africa. That’s what I get out of that forecast. Lol

It has mostly ended now. A little more than 2” refresher!

Underdone- from driving in it and seeing it irl