WesternFringe

But the trends…

You practically said 25% for each of 4 scenarios, so you have all of your bases covered and the forecast is essentially meaningless, but keep trashing others with ad hominem attacks. eta: ninja’d by NA101

I like you and always have enjoyed your posts, but do you always talk about yourself in 3rd person? Too funny. Lol If one data point from where you start makes a trend, then my Stats professors lied to me. Agree with your post regarding the first wave determining a lot of the outcome of the second wave.

Starting from what reference point? Last 3 runs? Last 5? Last 10? Not being contentious, just honestly curious. Like you have correctly stated before the starting point is important to denote when identifying trends, and choosing that starting point can frame the data in any way you would like to frame it. In other words, I am wondering about the magnitude and the timing of the trend. eta: For example, the 18 hr trend on Will’s gefs mean snowfall maps was robust and towards more widespread snowfall in Virginia, but the 24 hr trend was minor and only a slight push SE with the heavier snow line.

The latest run looks most similar to its run 24 hours ago, except for a slightly better push SE with the 2” line in northern Maryland and towards the metros.

Question for the mets, is there a NBM for ensembles? Or does the blend include ensembles, ops, and mesos? If it includes all, does the weighting change as time progresses toward zero hours out?

I know it is an op run at 6-7 days, but the gradient on the 12z GFS is crazy if it were to verify like that. Verbatim Augusta Co imby would get 10-12” but 10-15 miles away would get 0-1”!

Apparently, the geese know what’s up.

So, the Geese Index is high right now. And there is a 2-3 week delay in its effect on snowy weather, sort of like SSW events. Got it! In all seriousness, I am focused on the ensembles and the 7th. Would be nice to get everyone on the board, even if it isn’t the MECS, HECS, or the KU that some in here are hunting.

Snowing at Wintergreen according to mPing users. Reports of sleet in Greenville, according to family members.

Ops aren’t great at predicting temp at hr 216? Wow! Great insight eta: ops are pretty useless after Day 5, but we know this

Yeah, whatever man. See my post. I am not even arguing either side of cc though my whole point is that the cavalry is late bc the model doesn’t even show what we were arguing over being impossible even happening anymore

Again, people putting words in my mouth. I don’t disagree with any premise you mentioned. I also am not going to pretend that a 192 hr op depiction proves anything! That is my point. I am not talking climate change at all. The next 2 runs of the fricking same model showed nothing like we were talking about!!!! So why even say this shouldn’t happen when it never fucking did!!!! Jesus Christ, that is all I am saying!!!

Yeah, we were all talking about a discrete threat, so you have it right about that. The models saw rain bc the ground layers were warm in its depiction of the future. And then we all agreed to kinda see what actually happens in 8 days instead of focusing on one model run’s output. But I am missing the point? Enlighten me eta: And it is bs if you say it is concerning when the model says this at all. Where were you all in saying it was concerning when the models were portraying 20-30 inches a few runs ago? Get real and accept the good with the bad. And also realize that 192 hr depictions rarely verify.

If that means discounting an op run at 192 that never happened that it’s own two subsequent runs disagreed with and said would not happen, count me an ostrich! Lol ETA: but keep preaching to me about events that never happened. That will prove your point.

If every model run’s output is a concern to you, you are ridiculous and missing the point. Hour 192 never verifies on the GFS. But yeah, I am missing the point!? Lol eta: it was model output that we were discussing that never happened at 192, and hasn’t been modeled since as even close to our area at 186 or 180 in the 2 subsequent models runs, but I am missing the point? I should have been alarmed by the one run? Okay, you are right. The fact the models showed something that never happened is evidence of….what exactly?

So a model that factors in historical data is outputting what would not have been expected in the past? Thanks for the insight. Abd btw, the model isn't even showing anywhere close to what we were disagreeing about 2 runs ago at hr 192 anyways, so you are way late.

So the forecast temp on an op changed 7 degrees 13 days out? Shocker!

Didn’t a wise poster (psu) just say this 20 hrs ago?: A pattern change doesn’t mean we instantly snow. You seem overly focused on snow otg but in the long range we’re often discussing a process. There was no cold anywhere in North America. We can’t go from that snow by snapping a finger. It’s taking some time after the long wave pattern flips to establish enough cold in our area to get snow. Even then we will need luck. It is a pretty good pattern to get a snowstorm in the eastern US. But it could go just north of us. Just south. Cut island a bit. Out to sea. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee snow. We also need luck.

GFS saying snow again for Augusta and surrounding counties Friday night into Sunday morning.

44 currently and steady light rain today in western Augusta County.

I hear you, but let’s wait until it happens or at least gets closer and is continually modeled to add it to the book. And maybe more than just one model showing it as well. It is also perspective. My elevation of 1550’ helps out here. I got 8” on 2/6/21 for the superbowl and another 5” five days later. This storm that we are discussing now drops 6” imby verbatim according to the GFS. Not sure what storm last year you are referring to, but it has happened out here as well. Did we not used to get perfect track rainstorms in winters in the past? I remember some in the 80s even in upstate NY that were disappointing rain even with a classic track.

Never said it didn’t bother me, so please don’t put words in my mouth. I think it is perfectly relevant to distinguish between weather depicted at Day 8 on a model (with very little skill after Day 5) and weather that has actually occurred. I will have to respectfully disagree on this one. When you say, “it shouldn’t be possible” it very well might not be. There are plenty of times the experienced and knowledgable posters on here disagree with the surface depictions based off of the H5 in the Day 5-10 range. But this time it is irrelevant that the event hasn’t occurred and is 8 days away? C’mon, man!

It hasn’t happened yet. Can we at least wait until it occurs to put it in PSU’s book?

Remember a couple pages back when we had a KU on the longe range GFS and snow maps were allowed bc it is Christmas? Those were the good old days. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, all!