WesternFringe

I like how Solution Man is literally the solution.

It was snowing here when the sun came up and it is still snowing! I don’t care if it has only accumulated an inch or two so far. It has been awesome! 29°

Despite the radar returns (I live in a well-documented radar hole that is shaped like an isosceles triangle), it has been snowing all day here. Only have about 1.5” to show for it, but I will take a cold smoke snow for 24 hrs straight storm all day every day. NFL playoff football and a roaring wood stove and good beer and herbs and snow. Life is good, y’all!

This map is event total. The map you might be referring to is Monday 7:00am until tomorrow, which shows less since some has fallen already, especially down in the SW portions of the lwx area

We just go to my buddy’s house in Staunton since he is a bachelor. It was a blast watching the Cowboys get crushed (I am a Washington fan)!

25° and lightly snowing. Approaching 1” here in NW Augusta County.

Heading out to hang with my fellas and keep the Sunday wild card NFL tradition going. It has been over a decade and even babies being born soon before and soon after and snow storms haven’t been able to stop it. Might need my 16 yr old son to pick me up tonight! Beer and legal herbs and cold and football and snow squalls and a 2-4”+ event tomorrow night help the mood. We are all teachers and could use a snow day for sure. Hope all in this sub-forum score a cold smoke even tomorrow night!

Snow squall line came through with moderate flurries at the peak (about 20 minutes ago). 34° and feels cold af outside with the high winds. nw of Staunton in Augusta County

You can see the skip even in the short term models. @Heisy is annoyingly accurate in his analysis. Lol

35° and flurries here northwest of Stanton in Augusta county

I’m am not sure where the panic room is bc I have never been there, but some of you all might want to find it and check it out!

It gave me 4”, but I got “zero point zero.”

Yeah, they are called weirdos or freaks. We are the normal ones. Right? Right?? Please say right

Looks a tick west to me.

If the one outlier of all the models is taken verbatim as the final solution, then you would be right. Hopefully, there is a continued move towards the GFS/CMC/UKie camp for the Euro.

My gut thinks it moves ever so slightly towards more amped and less flat, ticking NW only slightly. Leaving us all thoroughly confused and uncertain of the final outcome.

But when the probability maps have been encouraging, how has that worked out? Bottom line is not to put much stock into these probability maps, because they are very rarely correct.

I think you slowed it down some as to not induce seizures at the same rate. Thanks!

Agreed. Maybe slowing down the loop of the 2 images would help?

Those are the last 2 numbers in the pressure of the slp, not the enemble member number

Did you see any 70 degree days in there? No? I bet you saw the vast majority of members showing a storm on or around the 16th. That isn’t every possible outcome. That is a specific outcome of a shortwave passing by. Were some solutions warmer and some further north or further south? Sure, because the models don’t have it pinned down from 6 days out. But because of models, we know it is going to be cold and that a shortwave will be passing by the mid-atlantic. Which is why we are all in here and talking about the 16th and the 20th. How would you know that without models? And how would we know that if models were showing every possible outcome? Furthermore, the individually perturbed members are meant to be taken in aggregate, not as 70 different models. eta: I recall you saying that the cold would stay in place for the last storm and the mesos showing mixing and cold rain were wrong. Were they wrong? Or did the southerly winds at the midlevels cause mixing and rain for most?

I think you are getting closer to the way most of us think about models, but they are tools for forecasting (meteorologists literally use them as tools to do so) and they don't show every possible outcome. Without models, we would have no idea that it is going to get very cold next week, for example. Now, we don't know exactly what each shortwave is going to do 5-10 days away, but we do know the major players at 500 and the overall synoptic set-up that will drive the weather during this timeframe.

West Augusta had and inch or two of snow this morning. School division is closed due ‘power outages and rapidly deteriorating road conditions.’

I have seen at least 6 flakes and I am NW of Staunton about 8 miles.

30° and heavy sleet with snowflakes mixing in here NW of Staunton.