WesternFringe

Not nervous here NW of Staunton. I think we will see accumulating snow. Most of the models keep bullseying my county or a neighboring county. Also, getting 28" last month helps. Still have snow piles otg despite 50s lately.

Bullseying me NNW of Staunton so it must be right.

Snowing very very lightly here northwest of Staunton.

Yeah, this one seems to be getting away from me over on the other side of Afton Mountain from you as well. Like PSU said, the second wave is the more interesting one anyways!

This year, the ops are leading the ensembles at 5 days out* *special 21-22 winter weenie rule

Per the GPS, NW of Staunton I am fringed on snow and sleet and expecting .35" qpf of freezing rain (which verifies as often as I hit the Powerball). Can I pass? eta: I hope northern areas that have been fringed earlier this winter get destroyed with snow, and ice (if you like ice)

You are a bundle of joy! eta: I am digging the GFS. Back-to-back ice storms, a little snowstorm on the 10th, a little snow on the 13th, and another wave approaching at the end of the run. Hopefully another model or ensemble latches on to one of these threats and gives us something to legit track!! Hard to be pessimistic here as I just had 28.5" in January when my climo is 24" for the season

Ended up with 3” of powder here NW of Staunton. ETA: pictures are right side up now

28/27 NW of Staunton 3-4” of fluff out of nowhere amazing

36/27 Light Snow in Staunton

You just can't help yourself Just playing- I appreciate the pbp!

16 degrees and heavy snow. 8” and counting! The globals (euro and GFS) kicked the mesos ass so far here

16 degrees NW of Staunton. About 4”. Picnic table is under a pergola

Moderate to Heavy snow. 3-4” otg. NW of Staunton ETA: This was earlier when there was only an inch. My wife spent hours making sure their stalls were comfortable, but they prefer Jebwalks and hay!

It has started earlier than forecast here. The thump is incoming 16 degrees and steady, light snow. Beautiful. About 1/2”. NW of Staunton

Steady light snow here NW of Staunton. 18°

16/6 here in Churchville area (NW of Staunton). Friend of mine just reported seeing first flakes at Wintergreen about 20 minutes ago. eta: First flakes here too! I had to go outside to notice because it’s super light. But it’s snow!!

After that, head on up to Intercourse, PA and do the whole trip over again.

23/12 here NW of Staunton

I will take my 14” and run. If only that were to verify!

Hoping for some late bumps east to the projected track of the low today to make this event better for everyone in the sub. Still looking like a nice storm out here imby NW of Staunton. Latest Euro drops 14”. GFS was 10-12”. NAMs do give me some pause, and I expect to mix some towards the evening, but even the last 3k I looked at had 5-6” of snow before ice afterwards. I hope this storm overperforms and everyone in here is pleasantly surprised! And thanks for all of the analysis and laughs along the way. This has been a helluva roller coaster thread, and fun to be a very small part of it.

Not where I live

To be fair, no one has missed, won, or lost on this storm yet. That is good thinking when the outcome has become obvious, but with all the changes in the last 2 days worth of model runs, who is confident they know the final outcome?