WesternFringe

Mappy posted the FRAM for the Euro yesterday for me, and I believe it was WB.

The RGEM may have a cold bias, but when the Euro, GFS, Nam twins, and CMC all show my area (Augusta County) getting more than 1" of accumulating freezing rain, it gets my attention!

It bullseyes my county, so no it’s not. Lol In actuality, I think there is zero chance of 2” of freezing rain verifying here, but would love to see it (minus the requisite power outages and accidents, of course).

Euro doesn't think too much of snow chances, even at my elevation and location in the valley. Anyone have freezing rain and sleet accumulation from the Euro?

NAM says 5 or 6 am for you in Annapolis

Btw, guidance has me expecting an ice storm down here of epic proportions (Augusta County) based on latest euro and gfs and respective ensemble convergence. So, knowing what I know about freezing rain verifying here (even with 1550’) and my climo being in this general area for 30 years, I am 99% sure I will be seeing cold rain and will be teaching young adults Thursday and Friday and not having snow/winter weather days! Hope the northern/eastern crew gets lots of accumulating snow though! You all are still in the game

Makes sense since the planet spins at 1,000 mph at the equator and therefore there must be a force generated by the slower moving fluid layer on top compared to the solid 1000 mph layer underneath it. Mountains are like rocks on a river bed if the rocks were moving faster than the water lol eta: thanks for explaining it, CAPE

Very, very slow decline. I did a linear regression for total annual snow in DC and Baltimore since 1880s last year and the slope was barely negative (statistically within the margin of error for zero slope). Also not sure about there being more big ones and less small events than in the past, although I didn’t do a statistical analysis of that yet. There were some huge KUs all throughout the last 120 years as well.

Because that is when it is least likely to verify? lol

You called?

All snow here NW of Staunton and 32 degrees. More than an inch accumulation in places. eta: just dumping snow now- huge flakes

Sleet piling up here NW of Staunton. Snow mixing in now. 33 degrees

Tropical Tidbits 0Z 3K MAM

NWS saying 1-3” for Augusta County nw of Staunton.

Wife heard pingers late last night on the skylights. Warming up nicely now- 50° and headed up to low 60s. NW of Staunton

It’s happening!

Ended up with about 4.5” here NW of Staunton. Mood flakes now and 24°

Went from 37 to 30 in an hour a little while ago. 30° and moderate snow. Visibility 1/2 mile. 1.5” otg NW of Staunton

Serious question (and I am not complaining- I am excited about any snow tomorrow): Why does NWS have Staunton in the 1-2" range on their expected snowfall map, but has a 66% probability that Staunton will get over 2"? Aren't those two things mutually exclusive? They both have the 10:26 am time stamp. As a teacher of math, I am befuddled by this. 63 degrees here NW of Staunton

You read my mind! I am going to take each decade's median and run another linear regression to find the line of best fit. I just did it in Google Sheets rather than Excel since I am on a Chromebook. I will share a link to the document and graphs when I get a little further on.

I ran the linear regression for DC annual snowfall. Using 1888 as the starting point, the equation is: Annual snowfall in DC = -0.07 X # of years past 1888 + 22.9 So, on average DC is seeing 0.07" less snow per year since 1888. The R squared value is 6%, which means that 6% of the variability from year to year is a function of the passing of time. Another way to look at this number is that 94% of the variability from year to year is random. Using 1969 as the starting point, the equation is: Annual snowfall in DC = -0.03 X # of years past 1969 + 18.4 So, on average DC is seeing 0.03" less snow per year since 1969. The R squared value is 0.2%, which means that 0.2% of the variability from year to year is a function of the passing of time. Another way to look at this number is that 99.8% of the variability from year to year is random. Using 1984 as the starting point, the equation is: Annual snowfall in DC = +0.17 X # of years past 1984 + 22.9 So, on average DC is seeing 0.17" more snow per year since 1984. The R squared value is 0.4%, which means that 0.4% of the variability from year to year is a function of the passing of time. Another way to look at this number is that 99.6% of the variability from year to year is random. Conclusion: Annual snowfall In DC has declined on average 0.07" per year since 1888. Annual snowfall In DC has declined on average 0.03" per year since 1969. Annual snowfall In DC has increased on average 0.17" per year since 1984. The vast majority of the variability (94% up to 99.8%, depending on the time period observed) from year to year is statistical noise, or random.

Washington DC has annual snowfall data going back to 1888. When I get a chance, I will enter in all the annual totals and run a linear regression to find the line of best fit. By the slope of that line, we will be able to quantify any change in snowfall totals relative to the totals of the late 1880s, or from any point in time since for that matter. I can then overlay and/or add other cities and do likewise. It should be interesting to see how the cities may differ or not and what the slope is when starting with different points in time.

NWS is forecasting 2-3" for western Augusta County and along the ridges of the Shen Valley. Could be a sneaky day off from school for the kids on Wednesday here.

Thanks! NWS says 2-3 inches accumulating for the west of my county, so I will happily track.