WesternFringe

Nearly all snow now and still 24 degrees. NW of Staunton

In its wheelhouse it is, but a couple days ago it had the primary cutting west of us and was all rain.

Been sleeting for almost 6 hours. 24 degrees. NW of Staunton

12/7: 0.4" 12/16 4.0" 1/16: 0.5" 1/31: 7.5" 2/6: 8.0" 2/11: 5.0" TOT: 25.4" Climo is 24.5"

33 and fog. Fog all day and continues with a light mist falling. Reminds me of Ireland. Although I have never been, just what I think of when I think of Ireland. Plus I am part Irish.

I think it is cool that you know what you like and make no apologies for it. I grew up in 70" per year climo in Upstate NY, so I hear you. But I also understand many of those here who just want to see snow falling out of the sky and hopefully enough of it to cover everything in white. It reminds me of home and childhood, so that is all I need to see to be happy. So I, like many in here I suspect, will track the sh@# out of 1-3" snowstorms as long as there is tracking to be done! self-weenie

Thumpier and snowier and souther with the snow than 12Z. Great run and keeps mby in snow longer down here.

That's more than a warm nose. It's more like a nose and lips!

Anybody else think it is suspicious that this EHoffman guy shows up magically to take all the heat off of PSUHoffman just when he was defending himself from his NAM related concerns? In all seriousness, the trends have been good for the last 24 hours or so on the models wrt both track and thermals, even for down here in Augusta County. Let's weather will this thing home!

Purple rates of snow approaching from the southwest at 69 on the GFS

It must be cool knowing exactly what is going to happen in the atmosphere above you 3 days from now while watching the rest of us struggle to figure it out!

I had to look it up in my notes, but we had 2 inches of sleet out here on 11/15/18. It was crazy.

Icicles on the old truck. Still raining and 30°. NW of Staunton

Upgraded in Augusta and Rockingham: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet. Around a quarter of an inch of ice from freezing rain. A coating of sleet is possible. * WHERE...Augusta and Rockingham Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very dangerous. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roadways are becoming very icy and dangerous. Avoid all unnecessary travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. &&

Light rain and 27. Snow has a thick glaze on top and more is actively accumulating. Everything is encased in ice actually, the truck, sidewalks, roads, even the tires on my car. Beautiful, but we are not able to go anywhere. Stay safe, all! NW of Staunton in Augusta County.

Woke up to around 5” here NW of Staunton. 23° Forecasted to stay below freezing today, so we should be able to enjoy it! eta: measured 4.8”, which puts me at climo for the season!

Coming up on 3” and 27degrees NW of Staunton. On my Jebride:

28° and snowing here northwest of Staunton. 2 inches so far. Going for another Jeb-ride on my four wheeler.

31° and snow here northwest of Staunton. Euro has me in the mini lolli of 6”

33 and wet fatties coming down outside Staunton. Agree that models are converging on a wave 2 for down here of 2-4”. With lows in the 20s tonight and tomorrow’s high of 31, any snow should stick around for awhile. Excited!

Just tough not to look, especially when it is modeled as on and off wintry precip for 48 hours

This is your second comment (unless I missed another one) about how people on this subforum are too negative. Kinda funny coming from a person with a user name of Warm Nose, but okay, you do you. Looks like wave 1 is primarily a whiff for Augusta County and central Virginia folks, but wave 2 is a nice little event for down here Thursday evening. The globals and the NAMs and RGEM all show .6" to 1" qpf for the total of both waves for mby. Should have some p-type issues at some points, but I will take my chances at my elevation and let chips fall.

I think you take him too seriously and too much to heart, man. You might have to use that ignore feature for the first time for your own health!

But you never offer predictions, or possible glimpses into the future like the models and ensembles do. Or forecasts that can be verified or not. We all get your point that the models aren’t perfect and that climo and experience matter. But why come to a weather board where we are by definition discussing model runs to constantly deb on the models? Without offering any sort of insight vis a vis the forecast of the storm that we are all following thanks to the technology you claim to not trust? Just saying! Back on topic, models look decent for the whole event imby, but wave 1 is nearly a non-event here NW of Staunton. I am not complaining, though, since we look to be in the bulls eye for wave 2 on some of the ensembles and globals as well

The ratio conversation was a couple of pages back. Around 10:1 or slightly under was the consensus, so yes, 8-10:1 seems reasonable.