WesternFringe

Your posts definitely imply this is the new normal. At least that is how I think the vast majority of folks in here read them. You talk about trends a lot. And medians of decades declining. The posts are very suggestive of how things might be going forward, even if that isn’t your intention. eta: You also write about how if we need every teleconnection to even snow along with anomalous cold, then what is the point. I am not sure how one would interpret that other than you are implying this is the new normal. I agree with BobChill and Ji and others that our lack of snow is primarily cyclical. I had 28.5” last year, which is a few inches over climo, so we all have our perspectives.

I volunteer. I am one of those folks who thinks recency bias and a bunch of ninas has colored our understanding of the past and our expectations for the future. If we don't turn it around in the next 2-3 years, I will admit I am wrong, go see the reaper, and disappear from this forum forever. Because what is the point in tracking if we absolutely can’t snow for the most part? Especially if we have to read about it over and over from people in every mid/long range thread. That isn’t good for mental health if one is investing so much time tracking potential snowstorms!

Rain with snow mixing in. Went from 43 to 37 degrees on my 15 minute car ride. NW Augusta County

Okay, we can go back to hearing from preferred posters why it can’t snow in the MA after it just did. My bad. I will stop being so optimistic for snow chances.

Yeah, we got to -15 two or three years ago. Haven’t noticed any immediate warming trend. Been in this area longer than you. 1993 to present. Not sure how to respond to how you know that this year’s cold snap would have been below zero years ago, but instead was right around zero. Those are some serious skills you have.

‘Shenandoah Valley Area’ is a large area to generalize. I live at 1550’ nnw of Staunton and we have had many nights below average temps this year. It has been plenty cold, just no precip to match.

Okay, mansplain my climo for me. We were 0 to 10 degrees recently for 3 nights in a row, with wind chills in the -20s and -30s. Where were you all with ‘20-30 years ago, it was in the 30s-40s this time of year’ ??

Tonight is a low of 22. Plenty of cold but no precip. Tomorrow night’s low is 28, but no precip again. Cold isn’t my problem at the moment.

It’s cold right now. 34 dropping to 28 tonight here. Just can’t get precip plus cold.

Sleet and snow here in Augusta County. 32 degrees

26/24 cloudy here in NW Augusta County. Smells like snow outside.

But I don’t think you realize how big a hole were in. DC needs almost 20” this season just to avoid the last 7 years being the least snowy period ever! I probably don’t realize how big the DC snow is because of the imby bias where it hasn’t been horrible except for one year. And the statistical analysis I ran said most of the variabilty is due to noise. However, if it becomes the least snowy year ever, then the law of averages says it will snow a lot soon. Under my theory. Again, we shall see.

I understand what you are saying about the end result and what is otg, but at this point I would pay to see inches of snow falling from the sky even if they are disappearing as they hit the ground!

Good points. I think that same analysis could apply to years before and after 2009-10 and before some great storms in 2014 and 2016. Etc No doubt we are in a bad luck stretch and folks are stressed. 3 Ninas in a row will do that to you. I just think recency bias makes people overly negative regarding our modern snowfall potential.

It matters because it seems that you and others are almost saying we can’t snow anymore. Thus the ‘perfect track in the coldest week of the year can’t even snow’ comments. We just had near record cold, just no precip around. That’s merely called bad luck in my book. I fundamentally disagree and think the law of averages means it will snow very well in the MA soon. It might be the end of this winter or the next or the next. I just don’t agree that bad luck in the last few years for some or many on this board (I had above climo last year) means that our immediate, medium, or long-term prospects for significant and healthy annual snow are doomed.

What about the record setting cold in Texas and Oklahoma last year? Or close to record cold in Atlanta this year? They don’t have a colder climate than us. In the next decade or two I think we will be approaching very close to historical averages. The pendulum swings. In the 1970s they were worried about a quickly approaching ice age because of the extreme cold. We shall see. My parents who live nw of Atlanta have been seeing more snow than they used to a decade ago. We have had really bad luck in the MA. I am not arguing with that. But sometimes it is just bad luck and not due to an over-arching phenomenon that is affecting the entire east coast equally. But if people want to doom and gloom, people are going to doom and gloom.

So, record snow from bombogenesis (which should decrease in frequency with a warming climate, according to IPCC 6) in Buffalo is climate change. Record cold is climate change. And droughts of snow is climate change. When it is super hot it is climate change. When we have drought it is climate change. When we rain more than normal it is climate change. Bigger hurricanes (which we haven’t seen) are the result of climate change. Got it. Are there any weather phenomena that are not the result of climate change? Lol

Was it climate change that just brought Buffalo a once or twice a century blizzard? Or that just gave Duluth, MN a record snowfall total for December? Or that just gave us record breaking cold in December here in the mountains of western VA? Or is only climate change when we don’t get the snow we wish for in our backyards?

If you are certain of what is going to happen, then why are you here? eta: I think even though we all know the air mass isn't ideal, the CMC, GFS, and Euro have all shown us glimpses of how we can still get it done. That's why the thread gets hyped.

Why are we looking at 850s for what would be Jan 11th 7:00pm EST here when our storm would be on the 15th?

Rates will overcome!

Yeah, I will take my 14" and run with it!

I am starting to believe in atmospheric memory! For Augusta County it looks like a mix of rain, snow, and sleet just like 12/15 and 12/22.

NAMs thoughts. Better than I thought they would be