WesternFringe

I had to look it up in my notes, but we had 2 inches of sleet out here on 11/15/18. It was crazy.

Icicles on the old truck. Still raining and 30°. NW of Staunton

Upgraded in Augusta and Rockingham: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet. Around a quarter of an inch of ice from freezing rain. A coating of sleet is possible. * WHERE...Augusta and Rockingham Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very dangerous. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roadways are becoming very icy and dangerous. Avoid all unnecessary travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. &&

Light rain and 27. Snow has a thick glaze on top and more is actively accumulating. Everything is encased in ice actually, the truck, sidewalks, roads, even the tires on my car. Beautiful, but we are not able to go anywhere. Stay safe, all! NW of Staunton in Augusta County.

Woke up to around 5” here NW of Staunton. 23° Forecasted to stay below freezing today, so we should be able to enjoy it! eta: measured 4.8”, which puts me at climo for the season!

Coming up on 3” and 27degrees NW of Staunton. On my Jebride:

28° and snowing here northwest of Staunton. 2 inches so far. Going for another Jeb-ride on my four wheeler.

31° and snow here northwest of Staunton. Euro has me in the mini lolli of 6”

33 and wet fatties coming down outside Staunton. Agree that models are converging on a wave 2 for down here of 2-4”. With lows in the 20s tonight and tomorrow’s high of 31, any snow should stick around for awhile. Excited!

Just tough not to look, especially when it is modeled as on and off wintry precip for 48 hours

This is your second comment (unless I missed another one) about how people on this subforum are too negative. Kinda funny coming from a person with a user name of Warm Nose, but okay, you do you. Looks like wave 1 is primarily a whiff for Augusta County and central Virginia folks, but wave 2 is a nice little event for down here Thursday evening. The globals and the NAMs and RGEM all show .6" to 1" qpf for the total of both waves for mby. Should have some p-type issues at some points, but I will take my chances at my elevation and let chips fall.

I think you take him too seriously and too much to heart, man. You might have to use that ignore feature for the first time for your own health!

But you never offer predictions, or possible glimpses into the future like the models and ensembles do. Or forecasts that can be verified or not. We all get your point that the models aren’t perfect and that climo and experience matter. But why come to a weather board where we are by definition discussing model runs to constantly deb on the models? Without offering any sort of insight vis a vis the forecast of the storm that we are all following thanks to the technology you claim to not trust? Just saying! Back on topic, models look decent for the whole event imby, but wave 1 is nearly a non-event here NW of Staunton. I am not complaining, though, since we look to be in the bulls eye for wave 2 on some of the ensembles and globals as well

The ratio conversation was a couple of pages back. Around 10:1 or slightly under was the consensus, so yes, 8-10:1 seems reasonable.

Kuchera tends to do pretty well imby. I am at 1550' and get higher than 10:1 frequently. I also can get lower than 10:1 of course, but Kuchera usually sniffs this out reasonably well also.

Can’t agree more. Let’s look at the entire 0Z suite before deciding to head to the reaper guy over this storm.

I thank you for posting it, but without the key or legend it is really difficult to see what it is depicting other than relative amounts. Which is probably all that is important in the end given that these model depictions will bust one way or another. Carry on.

And yet I am still barely out if it an at my elevation of 1550’ NW of Staunton. I will take my chances, given my local climo, and also give a bit more weight to the Euro than the NAM for the medium timeframe (until Friday). I think I see a decent amount of accumulating snow, and that makes this former Yankee very happy. Big picture is we are all tracking snow. Lucky us!

Fringed out in the western area here with qpf, like my namesake! Nah, who am I kidding? I would take 3 more chances at frozen by Sunday in a heartbeat. The GFS has 9 days of the next 16 that show some sort of frozen falling for mby in Augusta County and for most of the subforum. We take!

Same phenomenon here. Had 8”+ total but never had quite 8” on the ground except in the shady areas. I have 3-4” now due to compaction and melting and it is 37.

Snow is done falling. Had 8” here outside of Churchville NW of Staunton at 1550’. 35° and melting has commenced. Going down to 17 tonight, so will be interesting to see how much survives. Good luck to all. May your yards jackpot repeatedly!

I understand the concept- I was kidding! Hope your visibility stays low and you get nuked with snow.

What if it is puking parachute fatties, though?

Agree with PSU that it is sad in the sense that it’s heavy snow and I am at 1550’ and I am still only 31°. Having said that, I am going outside until it stops and going to enjoy the sh@& out of it. Approaching 5 inches and puking snow. NW of Staunton (if you all didn’t know by now) Wishing all the best luck to all you posters and lurkers and weenies like me. There is something wrong with us to be so obsessed with frozen precipitation, but I love it!

Over 4” here now. Light snow at the moment. 31° NW of Staunton at 1550’