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Have a swell time!

Looks like some storms will be popping up here this afternoon.

Looks like some storms firing for midday up here.

Up 7.5 feet at Shell Beach https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8761305

Water at Shell Beach buoy is pushing 5 feet above "predicted level" https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8761305

There has been a storm just sitting and regenerating over the same spot in central VT for quite awhile, at least 3 hours now. Flash flood warning is up. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=btv&wwa=flash flood warning BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Burlington VT 647 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Addison County in central Vermont... West Central Orange County in central Vermont... Southern Washington County in central Vermont... Northwestern Windsor County in southern Vermont... * Until 1045 PM EDT. * At 647 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1 inch in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... East Middlebury, Granville, Hancock, Ripton, Rochester, Warren, Lincoln, Braintree, Roxbury, Salisbury, Lower Granville, Alpine Village, Bread Loaf, East Granville and West Braintree.

A couple more webcams, though not embeddable: Watch Hill Boat Yard https://watchhillboatyard.com/webcam/ Bonnet Shores Beach Club (more action here) https://www.bonnetshoresbeachclub.com/webcam East Greenwich RI yacht club https://www.ipcamlive.com/livefixedview

a couple of web cams

Some big rains in Central New Jersey: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CRH&product=PNS&issuedby=PHI ...Middlesex County... Cranbury 8.28 in 0647 AM 08/22 Trained Spotter Jamesburg 7.96 in 0801 AM 08/22 CWOP Plainsboro Township 7.50 in 0700 AM 08/22 Public

Of course it is better, now you won't have 5G cell for 7 days.

Well No 30+" snowfall this time, most likely.

Happy Battle of Bennington day to all our Vermonters!

79/63 partly sunny (by which I mean 85/68 hazy and breezy.)

Here is the BTV AFD discussing Thursday: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Thursday still looks to be active day with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threats with these storms will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flash flooding. Plenty of instability will be available owing to the hot and humid conditions, and CAPE values are progged to be in the 1500- 2500 J/kg range. Meanwhile, marginal deep layer shear is expected with 0-6km bulk shear of 15-25 knots. The biggest limiting factors will be the absence of large-scale lift and/or strong low-level convergence. This means that convection will likely be initiated by terrain-induced lift such as lake breeze convergence or orographic ascent. However, once convection is initiated, storms should have no problem continuing to develop given the favorable environment, especially if there is an elevated mixed layer as indicated by GFS forecast soundings. Heavy rainfall is expected where thunderstorms develop with PWAT values of 1.75 to 2 inches. Meanwhile, warm clouds depths should well exceed 10,000ft and storms are expected to be slow moving. Therefore, localized flash flooding and ponding of water is possible. Otherwise, still expecting another day of oppressively hot and humid conditions on Thursday with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s during the afternoon.

Off topic: As I was driving to work today, my mind wandered to the history of the NE subforum banter thread. If I remember it correctly, didn't the banter thread get created as a place for weather related banter so as to avoid having it in either the monthly model thread or storm threads? We had the Monthly thread which would in theory have serious discussion and be based on models. When threats loomed, we would then have the threat thread and eventually an obs thread. The banter thread was for other weather discussion that did not fit into those formats- ex discussion of that day's temps, snow pack, etc. Is that correct or is my memory on this off?

Without doing any research, I think the Euro does tend to show more snow in the Dec-March period in N.E. than it does June- August. However, as I said, that is off the top of my head and perhaps others have looked into this already. We all know the GFS is almost as accurate as the Euro when it comes to July/ August snows despite its general weakness beyond 6 hours.

Euro continues to show no snow at all in the N.E over the next ten days. It has been consistent in showing this for a number of model runs and has been bang on when it comes since May, at least, so I think it may be on to something.

Mike's Hard V8?

Software update = phone vaccine.

Where is that? (I know you are in Iceland) Are you on the southern coast? Near Vik?

I tried the Tropifail Deppresscho at Starbucks last week. I would advise skipping the caramel but getting extra whipped cream.

Are the Lupines still in bloom?

I enjoy the subscriptions when I have them but my last commute it was frequently blocked my mountains on my commute so I cancelled. When I signed up again for 3 months free I thought it was for the car but it was just a streaming account which I just don't use often enough to justify the expense. Now I have a new commute I may sign up for the car again when they send me a new offer for that as I think it should be better reception on this route. Plus my regular car antenna is not working well at the moment- I think a mouse chewed the connecting wire- so I am driving 168 miles a day with CDs as the primary listening.