klw

BTV has given me a Watch. They put out a couple of new maps: Well there is a third but why would I want to look at that: Probable range is dusting to 14 inch with a 5% chance of more that 18". Expected is 5". https://www.weather.gov/btv/winter

That would have me regretting my decision this past weekend to not bother clearing a way to get the snow blower out of the garage.

From the BTV midday AFD: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1202 PM EST Tuesday...No changes needed to fcst this aftn. We have noticed some significant changes with the new 12z guidance, with a shift northward in the qpf and potential snowfall acrs our central/southern cwa associated with system late Weds into Thurs. After coordination with WPC and surrounding wfo`s we will have the latest update with aftn package. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

It doesn't want to fall into the water and melt

Until 18z goes back in the other direction.

The gradiant on that run is so severe here it would give me 20 inches at our house and 7 inches at the start of the driveway.

Welcome to the board, you must be new here.

So the range for the potential in my area has been reduced to a dusting to 28 inches. Glad to see this coming into focus.

FWIW (I know) the Nam puts the heaviest snow in the same general area as the SREF https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2020121509&id=SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_ SREF mean is 15" for KLEB and members top out at 26.7 inches. Clearly not a big deal because it is not officially winter until a SREF member shows be getting at least 40".

Get better, here's hoping for a speedy recovery!

It bumped me from about .03 to about .11. The trend is my friend! (unless we include the 06Z)

"I'll take signs of desperation or obsessiveness for $100, please Alex"

If my memory of the last couple of years is any indication, I would guess today and Wed AM we have ticks NW and Tues and Wed PM on we have ticks SE but that is just based on my rough memory of how things have been going.

I have about 10 pages from overnight I haven't read. Were there any decent melts or should I just skip them?

We had just shy of 11" with that one here.

12 Z GFS with the annual Grinch storm falling on Festivus this year. It is hour 384 but in our hearts we know it will happen as it does almost every year. (Yes I know it gives me snow as shown) We could have started the thread for this back in June had we wanted.

36 and mostly snow at this point

How can your camera be down on today of all days! You had one job! Just one job!

light rain and 37f here in the 05055. I got up the last of the leaves just now. Pond is full from the recent rains, springs are active again. Winter can now start.

These are cool but may be more than what you were planning on spending: https://ramblemaps.com/maps?q=new+england

BTV has expanded WSW for all of the NEK and added WWA to eastern and central VT. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ012&warncounty=VTC027&firewxzone=VTZ012&local_place1=West Norwich VT&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=43.7543&lon=-72.3728#.X8qS9thKhPY Including Stowe.

The only chart I could find is on page 107 of this PDF. http://www.weatherknowledge.com/The_Great_NorEaster_of_Dec_1992.pdf Here is a screen shot.

That was my first winter in VT. It was a forecast of 12- 18+ for my area. I spent 3 days watching CNN covering the storm while we were pounded by nothing but virga as the storm stopped a county away from me. One of my least favorite events ever.

Based on nothing but my gut and how the last couple of years of modeling and storms have been going (in my now feeble memory), I expect a bit more of a NW trend this afternoon. (leading to some good meltdowns) Things will then trend back a bit to the east after that but the storm will have a bit more on the west side up here than the clown maps show and a heavy band will set up from MReeve to PF and up to Alex and Phineas. Reeve and Freak will end up with 11 or so, Kev in Tolland will get his 8" and accompanying power outages, heaviest will be Monadnocks to Dendrite up to the Maine folks. I get 3 to 5. That is all a guess.