Greg
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Everything posted by Greg
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I believe in some areas it will be comparable if these models hold but I don't think everywhere in Eastern MASS. -
What's interesting is that he doesn't do this so easily.
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I'm out to 42 Hours on the TT.
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I actually recognize which stations did those maps without reading the fine print. The takeaway is that their thinking similar thoughts.
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For Ray they were settled depth records, but for the official COOP data that was given they are actually a little lower but I'm not going to get into the ambiguity of snow measuring techniques either here.
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If I remember correctly, I had 25" from the storm and 27" on Ground. The other spotter in NE Wilmington recorded 24" with 27" on Gound. Reading Mass had about 24.8" with 27" on ground and East Billerica had 25.7" with 26.2" on ground. So those are the official final totals that were recorded at the time. True, it did start to sublimate quickly but it tells me that with these observations they, like me allowed it to settle somewhat before the finally reading was reported.
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I do realize that. I still think the heavier omega will be east and the orientation will be only a little different than what you have there in your forecast map. However, I don't think this Feb 13 or Jan 15 all over again exactly. I will admit where you have that band is somewhat aggressive. Everything would need to come together just right for it to pan out like that, but we'll see.
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I agree somewhat with this. I think it may tic west but not like some of the crazy stuff we saw with the UKIE and CMC just recently.
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It did very briefly in the very beginning. Then straight snow all the way through.
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Probably not the QPF in 1992 nor 1997. But those were different storms.
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I do NOT have a "Jack POT" fetish or an IMBY mentality. I have seen these models not just how they performed this year, but others, and this trend has continued. Believe what you must but I have lived and seen this many times before.
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Even the Euro and GFS have their collective biases that need slight correcting my friend. This is fairly well known. The GFS is still a little too far southeast with its tracks and tends to overdo the extent of its precip shield. the Euro, has a tendency to have a slightly over amped bias, not quite like the NAM of course, and tends to very slightly overdo the "LE" Liquid Equivalency. So, all these things need to be kept in a reasonable perspective.
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Out of all the upgrades, it still has a tendancy to over do "LE" Liquid Equivilancy and hug the coast a little too much. Needs to be adjusted for final outcome. Not to mention, people are basing this also on the 84 Hour. Well outside of its range credible solutions.
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We'll see. I still know the bias the model has. So, I actually can correct those biases it in my mind based on the output I see.
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Same here. It will change several times from this point on. More eye candy then reality.
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True, but I believe this storm won't be an 18–24-hour event either. IMHO, I think it will be between a 15–18-hour storm. But we'll see.
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Winter Storm "Grayson" January 3-4, 2018, had a Pressure around 953/954. This potential storm has some similarities to that not to mention a couple of other things.
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I think you do better than that of course but I am thinking at this moment slightly heavier totals eastward.
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I was actually thinking a similar situation.
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1.0" here. Nice to see it look like winter again.
