Greg

"But I don’t have the Kuchera ratio on that. Add 25 per cent to your output snowfall" I never use the Kuchera, I found it exaggerates the fluff factor potential a little too much.

Correct, same here my friend.

Just like I pointed out recently.

I really don't think we will get a 15-20:1 ratio, but 12-13:1 is not totally out of the question. Need to keep things on the reasonable side.

This may be true but still, it shows us what can happen.

The CMC is a warning to us that there's a limit to how far north and west this can come. People need to keep that in the back of their collective minds.

I would use the word "significant" vs "substantial" but yeah, I'm with you on that statement.

The man had nowhere to go but up from his very conservative forecast earlier.

I know, I just watched that.

Where you are in CT is fine, you just need a little more quantity, but where Taunton is, he better stop wishing for large jumps NW.

You don't want this thing to start coming too close, not that I'm personally worried, but anymore and the smell of taint starts entering into the conversation, especially near you.

Seems like a dual Low structure. In other words, you have 2 lows battling for dominance. Obviously, the SLP closest to the cost is delivering the goods here. If that other Low got absorbed by it, we'd be talking about a bigger storm sytem.

Jet Streak and spacing influence of the storm to the north and strength of the SLP.

Then if that is true the temperature would have to be a ratio that would be poor to dendrite formation. The temp here in Wilmington would be 29F or something like that. Doesn't make too much sense to me.

That's actually off a little bit based upon the LE map we just saw if you scroll above. Go out to about 70 hours then do the 24-Hour total for snow, the map will match up better. Can't have 4.4" of snow in Lowell/Lawrence with a 10-1 ratio and 0.5" LE unless the temperature is above 32F based on that output.

Titanic.

It's ok! The more, the merrier.

As much as I'd love to see these models come to wishing, I always remain guarded when the amped 18Z come in like this. We all know or should know for that matter that the 00Z suite will end up keeping things reasonably in check.

It's possible he may do that at the 11:00 PM news cycle if the trends continue.

C

I'll take the NAM 3KM for 400 please.

FROM WEATHER SERVICE NORTON, MA *Thursday night through Friday... Coastal low-pressure system will develop off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night and make it`s way toward southern New England during the early hours of Friday. This system will likely produce widespread snowfall, but is not forecast to be a major storm. Right now there are a couple of ingredients lacking with this system that will limit both impacts and snow accumulations. First, there isn`t expected to be strong enough forcing to generate intense snowfall rates. Second, there is no downstream blocking that will slow the system allowing it to produce snowfall for a longer period of time. At this point an advisory level event is the most likely scenario. The jury is still out on the track of this system, but latest ensemble guidance has the storm tracking just south and east of the 70/40 benchmark. This would mean a higher snowfall potential for the southeastern portions of southern New England and a lower potential for the northwestern portions. The consensus among the global model ensembles is for a swath of 4-6 inches of snow across the east/southeastern areas including Boston and Providence. West of I- 495 would be more likely to see amounts in the 2-4 inch range. While 4-6 inches doesn`t fall into the category of a major winter storm it certainly should not be ignored. Latest trends suggest the heaviest snowfall would be in the early to mid morning hours Friday, thus the modest snow accumulations could impact the morning commute. Latest trends support the snowfall ending in the early to mid afternoon. Finer details will be ironed out in the next 12-24 hours as the exact track of the system becomes more clear.

Do you just see things black and white like that? We also said there was "Central" part to it. Not just west or east. There's an in-between area you know.

I would generally tell you that around and east of the 495 belt is mostly considered Eastern Mass, anything a little west of that to the Worcester area is considered Central Mass. CT River Valley west is considered Western Mass.