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Greg

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  1. Greg
    I do realize that. I still think the heavier omega will be east and the orientation will be only a little different than what you have there in your forecast map. However, I don't think this Feb 13 or Jan 15 all over again exactly. I will admit where you have that band is somewhat aggressive. Everything would need to come together just right for it to pan out like that, but we'll see.
  2. Greg
    I agree somewhat with this. I think it may tic west but not like some of the crazy stuff we saw with the UKIE and CMC just recently.
  3. Greg
    This is ridiculous....
  4. Greg
  5. Greg
    It did very briefly in the very beginning. Then straight snow all the way through.
  6. Greg
    Probably not the QPF in 1992 nor 1997. But those were different storms.
  7. Greg
    I do NOT have a "Jack POT" fetish or an IMBY mentality. I have seen these models not just how they performed this year, but others, and this trend has continued. Believe what you must but I have lived and seen this many times before.
  8. Greg
    Even the Euro and GFS have their collective biases that need slight correcting my friend. This is fairly well known. The GFS is still a little too far southeast with its tracks and tends to overdo the extent of its precip shield. the Euro, has a tendency to have a slightly over amped bias, not quite like the NAM of course, and tends to very slightly overdo the "LE" Liquid Equivalency. So, all these things need to be kept in a reasonable perspective.
  9. Greg
    Out of all the upgrades, it still has a tendancy to over do "LE" Liquid Equivilancy and hug the coast a little too much. Needs to be adjusted for final outcome. Not to mention, people are basing this also on the 84 Hour. Well outside of its range credible solutions.
  10. Greg
    We'll see. I still know the bias the model has. So, I actually can correct those biases it in my mind based on the output I see.
  11. Greg
    Same here. It will change several times from this point on. More eye candy then reality.
  12. Greg
    True, but I believe this storm won't be an 18–24-hour event either. IMHO, I think it will be between a 15–18-hour storm. But we'll see.
  13. Greg
    Winter Storm "Grayson" January 3-4, 2018, had a Pressure around 953/954. This potential storm has some similarities to that not to mention a couple of other things.
  14. Greg
  15. Greg
    I violently agree.
  16. Greg
    I think you do better than that of course but I am thinking at this moment slightly heavier totals eastward.
  17. Greg
    I was actually thinking a similar situation.
  18. Greg
    1.0" here. Nice to see it look like winter again.
  19. Greg
    44.7F Partly sunny.
  20. Greg
    27F still just cloudy here. Don't expect much here at all. Maybe a couple of inches, tops.
  21. Greg
    Wilmington / Cloudy 20.0F
  22. Greg
  23. Greg
    They are. They're slightly warmer aloft.
  24. Greg
    Same here.
  25. Greg
    Makes me wonder a little if we should take the "Positive Depth Change map" and average the "forecast map" together and the truth of what really falls may lie somewhere between there. Just a mere tongue and cheek thought.
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