Greg

Nammy being Nammy!

Anything after 60 hours on the NAM tends to get finicky.

The 4-8, 8-12, and 6-10 were mostly on the table if this thing tracks classically. The 18" amount was highly unlikely with both the speed and temps on this storm. Now if, and it's a very large "If" a death band over some elevation occurred, then the possibility would increase of that happening but still in the end, an unlikely scenario.

Usually when you see the GEM too amped, which it does have that bias, compared to its regional one, that is a flag that the global GEM is way too amped to be real.

The problem with the forecast here is truly how the SW behaves/interacts. It seems to want to hang back a little too long vs being absorbed or gelling quicker into the main offshore low. The Southeast tracks of the main ocean low are good. It keeps the heaviest precipitation in the heart of our viewing area. But if the SW hangs back too much then this thing comes farther north which is not good.

Yes! All the easterly wind does is help to saturate the atmosphere here. It really doesn't do much damage to the temps. This is important. You want that.

Go out to hour 102 and hit 24 hour total. It looks better.

Exactly! They play the marine influence card early here but with the track of the Main Surface Low offshore south of us and the Mid and upper levels fine, most of this would be snow with perhaps the exception of far Southshore cape and islands.

Marine influence too strong on that take from Boston but depending on the trajectory of wind the North Shore would do only slightly better in that set-up.

Great analysis Ray. Really get into it. Always loved that stuff.

Typical GEM bias being furthest north with other models further south. Interesting but not surprising knowing the traditional model biases this lag time.

The 4 corners region low tracks are not the best pattern to be in for snow here in the majority of New England going back 30-60 and even 90 years. As Will stated, we need get the MJO to stop hovering around the 4, 5, and 6 zones. Storm track needs to originate from more of an upper Midwest area then dive southbound with the cold highs following. Not trailing well behind or coming in too soon to just to be moving out while a storm approaches.

First flakes here in Wilmington.

Exactly what I was pointing out in another post not to mention the CMC running cold which gives some pause also.

True, but we can still cash in when we have the upper 20's and low 30s a t this time of year. The mid 30 would be toward the Boston and SouthShore areas for sure but if the dynamics take over it would start as a mix, then a wet sleety snow for those areas.

That is usually good news in a step-down process that we're in now. It's good that both Oct and Nov won't go down in histoy as being both above average leading into the winter season.

As Will stated, even a NE Wind with a decent high, doesn't have to be a great high in place, would be fine for even Wilmington. I've seen it myself many times even in December. But an east wind and especially a southeast wind would most definitely be a mid-level and even low-level killer for snow with any weak high or marginal airmass in place.

I don't think the coastal devestation reached quite 78 magnitude with 3-4 consecutive high tides but it was close. but Boston reported a peak tide of 9.35 ft (2.85 m), which was 1.05 ft (0.32 m) less than the record set in 1978.

The problem for BDR is twofold actually. Number 1, it's in a valley. Many call it a shadow effect of the winds down sloping whether from an overall easterly or westerly direction. Number 2, they use a snow gauge. This has to catch snow that is already hindered by the valley shadow effect and also any wind will cause the snow to bypass the gauge a little regardless of a funnel put on top. With these relatively significant hinderances, one can pretty much see why a conservative snowfall report is somewhat the norm for that particular location.

1.8/1.9 January 2024 Peak of 3-month average.

1979-1980 Winter: Predominately a subtropical jet vs the polar jet stream year. As some on the board have illuded to a more active subtropical jet stream potential this coming winter season.

Not sure that's actually a state record. Depends upon how far back he compares. 30 years, 60, 90? '78 had that in several places in less that 24 hours and that was a 30 hour storm.. April Fools Days storm of 1997 had a few of those. that was a 24-Hour storm and of course Blizzard of January 2005, 24-Hour storm. So again, not sure what Ryan is looking at.

Trying to see what I can make of the EC-Fast Euro on the Pivotal now. Just to see what it has.

12Z GFS coming in!