Greg

Take them all the way down now. Coastal graze in effect.

The temps initially are what are going to make the snow relatively tough to accumulate readily. Seen this with the Jan 6-7 storm. All snow but struggled in the beginning with 33-34F temps never mind the 36-36F to the south in that event that mad it tougher. So, I believe that is what the Mets are trying to get at with their snow accumulation maps at the National Weather Service in Norton. Nobody is getting a settled snowfall depth of 18" out of this. That's the Color Code Range, not the prediction. Even when colder mid-levels crash in, the intensity will be key to the wet bulb. Once again Speed, Temp and Track are paramount.

The Point Click method instead of the using the Range is probably the closest to the truth than reading (12-18") range for this particular storm. The speed of this thing, temps and its track are what are stopping this frome going higher.

Relax about crazy uncle.

Mother nature doesn't care if one feels overdue. It can end up remaining like that for several more years. Look at why the National Weather Service of Norton, MA states about the uncertainty about the far SouthShore, Cape Cod and Islands. They state it all why.

I think downtown will fall a little short of double-digit snowfall unless they measure it funny and don't allow it to settle but definately North/ Northwest of that looks good.

I know of a couple in the KU book that this somewhat resembles but not to a perfect tee though. Thay are not blockbusters but nice and decent.

Finally in agreement with you here but only on that northern periphery with the H7, the rest as I stated with the model solution, meh.....

Stated the same comment to another poster just moments earlier.

Your not getting that bank on it.

It's also outside of 36 hour spoke for consitancy. Need to gett it closer in to be more relevant of a solution.

No offense, I get what your saying but the Northeast is pretty broad in description,

Better looks don't translate to realism. Use the 10:1 instead.

Heights will crash better than the Jan 6-7th this time, which is very good for those who have missed out on the most part of this winter, Places like Bedford, Mass Blue Hills (Milton), Boston, Northern Rhode Island, Hartford to Poughkeepsie, NY in that sort of line/corridor should do well in this one and catch up in the snowfall department.

Misspoke. My bad on that. However, the rest of my statement are indeed correct.

Of course it's strong. Strongest I have ever seen here is 2.5 Enso in the 2016 Winter. That was extreme on the scale.

Enso Neutral Negative. (-0.4)

To me a 0.1-0.4 is Enso neutral positive, 0.5 is Beginning weak. 0.5-1.0 is Weak to Mod, 1.0 is solid Mod, 1.0-1.5 Mod - Strong, 1.5 Beging Strong, 1.5 - 2.0 Strong to very strong, and 2.0 + or higher Super/Extreme whatever floats one's boat for a description.

Not sure 1.8 for an average is solid strong but moderate to strong for sure depending on the definition. But yes, Big East Coast storm for all the big I-95 cities and suburbia.

I still mostly use the traditional average ONI's for the main determinant variable. However, the other variables such as the SOI and so forth can help to modify/subvert certain elements in a strong El Nino winter where one can "Buck the trend' in certain circumstances.

Correct! Thank you sir.

I did indicate 1983 as you saw I stated. Depends upon one's definition of a big storm. and what area coverage.

Looks somewhat similar to the swath the January 6-7 storm brought us earlier.

Not sure I agree totally with that. '78 was a week el nino, '69 was a moderate, 2005 weak, 2015 weak. Only Feb 1983 was strong.

Not happening this winter. Take what you can get in this strong El Nino.