Geoboy645

Hard to believe that that gauge was at major flooding for an extended period of time not more than 5 months ago.

Interesting note, there is currently a Red Flag warning for the SW and Central areas of Wisconsin. From what I can tell at least since IEM records start in 1986, this is one of if not the first time that these areas have been under a Red Flag warning at this time of year. In fact this is only the 10th time MKX has ever issued a Red Flag warning in general. Not very surprising considering the drought, and with the holiday weekend there are certainly quite a few potential ignition sources. Especially considering that people don't really think of fires all that much in this part of the country, and especially not outside of March/April during our usual fire season.

This upcoming heatwave over Labor Day weekend looks to be near record-breaking at least in the northern areas of the subforum. Here at Green Bay, our point forecast for both Sunday and Monday is 95 as of right now. It's a lot harder to get Green Bay up to 95 in general compared to Madison or Milwaukee, but to do it this late in the year is quite extraoridinary. This would be the first time Green Bay has hit 95 or above in September since 1955! And to potentially do it two days in a row is even more spectacular. The only other time Green Bay has exceeded 95 on consecutive days in September was on 09/09-11 1931 where the temp was 95,97,95. If we overperform and reach 96 on either Sunday or Monday it'll be only the third time ever that Green Bay has reached that temp in September behind 09/10/1931 and 09/08/1933. We are also looking at the first 70+ degree lows in September since 2015, which while not nearly as record breaking is still pretty significant.

It is amazing that despite having 3-4" of rain in a relatively short amount of time, there's really no runoff issues at all. Just goes to show how dry things truly are rn. In an average summer, this would probably have been at least a minor flood event. This event should at least put the drought off for a week or two, depending on how hot things get next week and for how long.

It is currently an ungodly 88/81 rn at Peoria. That is just gross, especially for 10pm at night.

https://reservoircontrol.usace.army.mil/nae_ords/cwmsweb/cwms_web.cwmsweb.cwmsindex This gauge was at 500 CFS at 6:30 pm last night. It's now at 48,000 CFS (!). That's almost a 100x increase in flow in 18 hours, and an increase of 30,000 CFS in 2 hours (!).

Err these fires are from Alberta and not California. Alberta decidedly did not have an incredibly wet winter. And yes, it is involved with climate change because this ridge pattern that is giving Alberta such bad fire conditions is almost an exact carbon copy of the June 2021 heatwave that oh you know led to the very natural 110 degrees in the Olympic Rainforest. A pattern that almost assuredly couldn't have happened without climate change. And this super unprecedented pattern happened again all of not even 2 years later... Which has led to consistent 80s to 90s and very low humidity and wind which are like the best pattern for fire spread from literally any ignition source.

Well this week is the week of the crest. We are now at Mdt or Major forecasted crests at every gauge from St Paul to south of Keokuk IA. And an astounding ~300 miles of forecasted major crests from Winona to Burlington, IA. The crests themselves have gone up slightly, and pretty much every gauge is going to have a top 10 if not 5 or even 3 or 2 crest all time. No crest looks to break records as of rn, at least north of Dubuque. South of Dubuque, is a maybe at some spots including Davenport which is now only 1 ft below the 2019 record crest. Even to the south of Keokuk there are several gauges that are going up into mdt stage, and we have at least forecasted flood stages down to the Illinois confluence. The pattern this week looks to focus the rain south and west of the basin, mainly in the Arkansas and Kansas basins which are quite low because of the drought in the plains. This should help with the crest south of the Missouri, although this is so far out that may very well change. Back up north, we are going to have lock and dam closures at various points along the river during the next week, which will greatly affect shipping along the river. Overall, this is looking to be the worst week of flooding along the Upper Mississippi since 2001 north of Dubuque and 2019 south of Dubuque.

As a side note that doesn't really apply to the subforum per se but is still something to note. The first of the meltwater pulses from the megapack in the Sierras seems to be starting this coming weekend. This means that a lot of the rivers in the Central Valley are also about to go back up into flood stage potentially. This will also greatly intensifying the already bad Lake Tulare situation. Looking ahead into next month, we are going to be having two major long-term flooding events occuring at the same time in two different parts of the country. Talk about a far cry from the widespread drought of last Autumn.

Well each day the crest forecasts just keep going up and up. Every gauge sans one (Alma, WI) from St Cloud to Burlington, IA is forecasted to crest in either moderate or major flood stage within the next 2 weeks. With every gauge from Dubuque to Burlington cresting in major stage. Which is particularly insane because the crest still isn't even in the forecast period that far south. It's barely in the forecast period for Minneapolis and Hastings. Which btw, those areas are likely to experience a very long time at major flood stage. Hastings for instance has reached major flood stage as of last night, and isn't actually supposed to crest until at least next week Wednesday. This is because as the main Mississippi crest north of Minneapolis pulses through, the Minnesota crest from the Coteau des Prairies is going to be right behind it. That crest hasn't even reached New Ulm, and the main snowpack melted a week ago at this point. Plus now we have the new snow from today's storm which will send the rivers back up in that drainage basin and the Upper Mississippi. The Black has also been pushed back up to moderate stage at Black River Falls and Galesville from the rain and snowmelt the last couple days, which is the reason why the gauges south of La Crosse are just going nuts. Most of them are practically a straight diagonal line up, such as McGregor IA. There, they may actually break the 1965 crest at the pace it is increasing. At least it seems that most streams sans the ones named, and the Wisconsin at Portage, are pretty much done with significant flooding, for now. Emphasis on the for now.

And the crests continue to go up and up on the Mississippi. ARX is now expecting at least April 2019 level crests along its entire stretch of the river, with some gauges nearing 2001 levels. For instance, McGregor IA which is just across the river from Prairie Du Chien is expected to reach a top 3 crest on record. Only behind 1965 and 2001. La Crosse is forecasted for a top 5 crest behind those years and 1952 and 1969. Governor Evers has declared a state of emergency already for the flooding. And the rain the next two days, which could be as much as 2 inches in spots including the areas that just got 10"+ of snow two days ago, is going to make things even worse. Especially south of the Black River. It's not just up there though. Dubuque is forecasted at least to 22ft, with that number almost certainly increasing as the crest becomes in view of the forecast period. And even as far as south as Davenport, which is already forecasted at 18.2 ft, which is major flooding. And that is with the crest potentially being 10 days out yet and a continued wet pattern for the forseeable future. 2023 is already shaping up to be a renowned flooding year on the Mississippi, and we've barely started this. P.S: I know that I have been basically the only one posting anything in this thread, but I really don't care. This is too major of a event to be not talked about. If a random snowstorm in January can get incessantly talked about for days and days, this should be too.

And now we have forecasted moderate flood stage as far south as Davenport. Out of the 133 gauges that have current forecasts by the NCRFC in their coverage area. 57(!) of them are forecasted to be at moderate or major flood stage within the next week. And that number is probably going to continue going up with the wet pattern forecasted for this week and next weekend. We really went from a dodged bullet to an oh **** moment in like the last 36 hours. This is going to be a very long 2-3 weeks at least for the Mississippi River basin. Oh and btw this is exactly how 93 started, a large snowmelt flood that just kept getting added on because it wouldn't stop raining for three months. Now not saying that that's going to happen here obviously, but the parallels are troubling.

Lol 5 days after nearly hitting 90 and areas could get a foot of snow. Yeah, ok. Just keep it west Idc.

Well I spoke too soon about escaping major flooding along the Mississippi. The precip from this weekend has now been factored into the forecasts and every gauge from Brooklyn Park to La Crosse sans Alma are forecasted to be at Major or high Moderate flood stage within the next week. Some of them like Hastings are starting to get close to the 2001 crests. Further east, the main deformation band should get up to 2" of precip either rain or snow which is just going to do wonders to the already high tributaries. Plus whatever snow that does fall will pretty much immediately start melting once the storm is over so that's great. We also got precip chances next week again which could do the same thing all over again.

There are over 30 different flood warnings and watches out right now across WI, MN, and the UP. Several rivers including the Mississippi are at or forecasted to be at moderate flood stage. While this isn't quite hitting the worst-case scenario for this melt, still a major flood for the Mississippi basin. Will be interesting to see how much, if any, effect the storm later this weekend will affect the rivers.

We overperformed here in GRB as well, with a high of at least 85. The models almost always seem to underdo these warm, windy, sunny days when we don't have green vegetation yet.

Well the flood has already started in earnest across the Upper Midwest. Every major river has at least 2 or 3 gauges either at or predicted to reach flood stage. Mostly minor flooding, although there are some notable exceptions. The Wisconsin at Portage, WI is predicted to be at moderate flood stage all week long. While the St Croix at Stillwater is forecasted to reach major flood stage, and as of right now a #7 all time crest and the highest since 2001. The Mississippi at Wabasha is also predicted to reach moderate flood stage, with additional rises possible thereafter. This will be an evolving situation all week long, although thankfully we have like no precip chances for a little while yet so that is going to help.

Quite a few flood warnings out at this point across Wisconsin. Nothing super major, and pretty much all the usual spots. But still, flood warnings with a major warm wave next week to melt the snowpack. I'm not going to be shocked if we start getting some flood-related headlines next week because of that.

I'd go a solid B+ here. December was pretty good with the Christmas Blizzard delivering some pretty top-tier winter conditions even with the small amount of snow. Plus it gave a legit white Christmas which is a big feat considering the last decade or so. The three weeks after Christmas were really really blehh and are the reason I can't give an A for this winter. Because they really sucked a lot. Love it being wintrier on my Spring break than my Winter break. After coming back to campus here in January, the rest of the month wasn't actually too bad, although we only really had deep winter conditions for about a week. February started off really warm, with multiple record highs the week of Valentine's Day. It legit felt like a morning from about now on Valentines Day. And then the rally started the next week. The 2/21-23 storm did underperform compared to what it was modeled 24 hours out which sucked, but it did give a really good snow day so that was a plus. This storm started an almost 50" rally in the next month, culminating in the surprise snowfall on 3/25. Obviously way overperformed with a total of ~15" here. That storm was some of the heaviest rates I have ever seen, and the most snow I have seen personally since 12/20/12. Also ended up being a top 10 daily snowfall for Madison, which is still insane. We still have snowpiles here and it's been a week and a half of 40s and sun with some rain. Overall, despite the blehh stretch in January and early February, any winter that has such a late rally like we did with a legit big dog deserves at least a B grade.

I don't agree with that we are already almost done at all. In fact, I argue we have barely started. While yes there has been some snowmelt to the south of MSP and in the urban area, outside of there the snowpack has been hardly touched at all. Even before this last storm there was still 18"+ of snow in the Northwoods, and they just got another foot+ on top of it. Hayward is still at 30"+ of snowpack, which is just insane considering how late it is in the year. And the SWE is still at record high levels for this time of year. After Tuesday's storm, we should be done for at least the next few days with storms, and it should warm up to the 40s and 50s. The melt will start in ernest then. And this snowpack is going to take a while to melt, as it is so wet and icy.

Yeah if you guys don't get at least 4-5 inches out of Tuesday's storm, your probably not going to hit the record unless something really stupid happens later in the month. The overall pattern looks to be shifting to warmth or at least average (finally) and while there is a chance for snow for a couple more weeks yet at MSP's latitude. It's pretty hard to do anything significant outside of a 4/13/18 style event which most likely isn't happening.

ARX has already put out flood watches for the usual spots, the Black at Black River Falls and Galesburg, and the Yellow at Necedah. Tomorrow's storm is going to definitely increase the flood threat. We should be getting at least 1.5 to 2" QPF across most of the Northwoods. While most of that will be snow (again) up there, areas to the south such as the Fox Valley should be mostly rain until Friday night. Some areas around Rhinelander could reach another foot of snow. What this does however is dramatically increase the snowpack for next Tuesday's storm. Which as of rn, is modeled to be warmer and have a farther north heavy rain threat. On top of the snowpack. Next Tuesday and onward could potentially be a significant flood threat because of this, especially with streams running high after tomorrow.

One thing with this incoming stormy pattern, it is probably going to be a wet first 2 weeks of April across most of the subforum. With areas to the NW potentially still getting snow ala April 2013. Hopefully not to that extent though.