Geoboy645

Yeah I'd be alright with this weather for the next 6 weeks, with the occasional rain chance so we don't dry out.

It's been a couple years since we have had our late August first cool wave. Definitely will feel nice (smoke not withstanding) after this humid summer.

Yeah MKX is really highlighting the potential for multiple rounds of rainfall pretty much every night from tonight through Tuesday next week, depending on where the mesoscale boundaries and such line up. This could get interesting fast around here, as thanks to last weeks rain we can't really tank a couple inches of rain again. And anything E of the Rock would be a huge concern given all the flooding in Milwaukee and fact that the rivers have mostly just fallen out of flood stage. These types of events with a stationary boundary sitting across the state have really hurt in the past (2018,2007). Hopefully it will not be to that level at all, but considering what happened lsat week I'm not all that confident to say the least.

It is going to be a long night for S WI for rain/flooding. Already a rare FFW out for Milwaukee and West Allis (On State Fair weekend no less!) with 2.5"+ hrly totals. And WPC just put out a pretty strongly worded MPD for the area.

Yeah I'm definitely worried for some potentially significant flooding somewhere in S or SW WI. While it hasn't been as wet as most of IA over the last 30 days, it's still been wet enough to cause concerns even without some of the more extreme totals that models have put out. SW to NE is a bad direction for precip maxes in regards to the drainage network in this part of the state. And 6-10 inches of rain in a night would be very bad news for really any drainage around here.

It always amazes me how much of a difference there is for # of 90s pretty much every year between Chicago and Madison. Madison is only at 8 for 90s so far this year. Obviously the UHI is a major part of that, but still such a stark difference over only ~85 miles in latitude.

Huh, I did not realize the SPC outlook for 8/18/05 looked like that. Crazy it has been 20 years since then. I was too young to remember it personally though. I can't and frankly don't even want to imagine what it will be like when we get another Stoughton or Oakfield level tornado in the Madison area, and we have had a couple close call setups where that would have been possible the last few years.

It isn't so much a weakness per se as the edge of a ridge of high pressure. We have been in some variation of a ridge riding pattern for over a month now with only a couple brief exceptions. In this case, the last few days the MS Delta has been absolutely baking underneath a heatwave, and that ridge has flexed in such a way that as of rn its aligned with the I70 corridor. Hence the repeated flooding experienced in those locations the last few days. And overall it has just been a wet month for most areas E of the Rockies as this ridge of high pressure flexes and moves. With the extra moisture from yet another broiling Gulf of Mexico, it has led to a lot of rainfall along the edge of the ridge, and is the reason why it has been so humid even if the temps haven't been so extreme this month here in the Midwest.

Guess I'll just put this in here, but there's a WPC MDT today for central IL. And the forecast discussion for it is pretty strongly worded. 8-11" of rain is not a small amount of rain to say the least. I don't think there are going to be any drought concerns wherever the precip max sets up after this...

Well, looks like after Monday the ridge will move east and then stall, setting up a ring of fire pattern for potentially the rest of the week next week. There are some differences as to where the exact stationary front sets up, however whatever areas that do end up underneath the ring could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain and potential flooding. These setups where there is a large ridge stalled on the E coast and a wide open GOM have caused major flood events in the past, such as a year ago when MN/IA/WI flooded while Detroit and points E experienced several days in the 90s. Definitely something to keep an eye on as we move into next week.

The forecast has really zeroed in on a potentially quite significant heat wave for most of the subforum starting tomorrow and going through at least the weekend. At least 3-4 days of mid 90s over mid 70s dew points is going to cause heat index values to rise over 100 degrees over the weekend, especially in the Chicago and Detroit UHI's. While at this juncture it doesn't look like record highs are in jeopardy, the heat index and warm nights could cause some issues in the metro areas. This will probably be the most significant heatwave since the 2 day heatwave back in August 23. Figured that this is significant enough to warrant a thread of it's own. Edit: As I was typing this out, ARX just put out an Extreme Heat Watch. With heat indexes up to 105 mentioned over the weekend.

Over the last day or so, the Models have really zeroed in on a potentially major severe weather outbreak across the sub forum. Figured that there should be a thread for it considering it's only 4-5 days out.

Today felt like a May or June day, not late March. Waking up to morning t-storms that ended about 9. Cleared out and became sunny and warm. And then sunset, with distant anvils and occasional flashes of lightning. All it was missing was the greenery that comes with that time of year. Pretty cool though.

Between the ~4" of snow on the ground and the air temps/WCs, it is truly a deep winter day out there right now. After the most recent storm system here, Wisconsin actually has a pretty good snowpack. Most of the state is 4+ with a large percentage 8+. Considering how bad this winter has been for that, that's a pretty big rally.

One thing to note for our Toronto people on here. That's potentially 30 inches of snow on the ground.

Yeah I am worried about tomorrow sneaking up on people because of the uncertainty. Tonight alone could be an impactful hit because of the timing of max rates during rush hour. But tomorrow is so up in the air this far out which is insane. And if some of the higher solutions verify for us, we'd be talking potentially a foot combined between the two snows on top of the stuff from Wednesday. That's a major storm.

So while yesterday's storm ended up being not that big of a deal in the MSP metro, further E it was actually a pretty significant storm. Wausau recorded 9.5" and reported a snow depth of 12" after yesterday and Green Bay recorded 7" with 8 on the ground as of yesterday. That's a signifcant hit, and does bode well for us down below as it finally sets up a N-S snow depth gradient for storms to track. Edit: This also means that Wausau and Green Bay are at 14.2 and 10.6 inches of snow for the month, respectively. Crazy how just two storms changes things up there.

I had something in Wausau today, and traveing back on I-39 from Stevens Point to Portage was a pretty stressful drive with the blowing dust. Had a few plumes cross the road that were so thick it was hazards on and 45mph on the interstate for about a mile before it lightened up again. Would have expected that with snow on February 6th, not dust. Really goes to show just how it dry it has been period, frozen or otherwise, the last couple months.

One thing to note about the ENSO state this winter is just how late this La Nina is starting. The only other Nina to start in OND was 1949-50. And this Nina has shown significant strengthening over the last couple weeks. That could really throw a wrench into things not only for the rest of the winter, but the whole year in regards to long-range forecasting.

Yeah like most recent winters, February looks to potentially be the most active month for storms. Definitely a signal after around the 5th of at least some snow chances for the forum. A reminder that we have had winters in the past that look like they were going to be futility winters, and then we have a major rally for snow in February and March. Case in point 22-23 where Madison and Green Bay had ~50 inches of snow accumulate from Feb 14th to April 2nd. We still have quite a bit to go for winter, even if the last week hasn't quite felt like it.

Bare ground, sun, and WAA is always a recipe for an overperformance. Going to make the next 5 days feel that much more brutal.

Say what you will about this winter, but this incoming cold wave is impressive considering the lack of snowpack both here and upstream. As of rn Monday is forecast to be 0 for a high and both Sunday and Monday nights are supposed to be around -10 for a low. That's pretty significant even if it's not historic or anything. We usually only have one or two 0 or below highs a winter, and pretty much all of those have snow and several inches of snow OTG. So pretty unusual. Of course, if we did have anything resembling a snowpack this would be a major if not historic cold wave. Still will be a frigid few days early next week.

Not even the 2021 event? The one that dumped 18" downtown?

Do not envy the LSX mets at all rn. If the storm goes even just a bit S, STL gets a foot plus of snow for one of the few times ever in it's record. If it goes just a bit N, STL gets a crippling ice storm of potentially an inch of ice with wind.

So are we the Commanders or are we the Bears in this scenario?