Geoboy645

And the crests continue to go up and up on the Mississippi. ARX is now expecting at least April 2019 level crests along its entire stretch of the river, with some gauges nearing 2001 levels. For instance, McGregor IA which is just across the river from Prairie Du Chien is expected to reach a top 3 crest on record. Only behind 1965 and 2001. La Crosse is forecasted for a top 5 crest behind those years and 1952 and 1969. Governor Evers has declared a state of emergency already for the flooding. And the rain the next two days, which could be as much as 2 inches in spots including the areas that just got 10"+ of snow two days ago, is going to make things even worse. Especially south of the Black River. It's not just up there though. Dubuque is forecasted at least to 22ft, with that number almost certainly increasing as the crest becomes in view of the forecast period. And even as far as south as Davenport, which is already forecasted at 18.2 ft, which is major flooding. And that is with the crest potentially being 10 days out yet and a continued wet pattern for the forseeable future. 2023 is already shaping up to be a renowned flooding year on the Mississippi, and we've barely started this. P.S: I know that I have been basically the only one posting anything in this thread, but I really don't care. This is too major of a event to be not talked about. If a random snowstorm in January can get incessantly talked about for days and days, this should be too.

And now we have forecasted moderate flood stage as far south as Davenport. Out of the 133 gauges that have current forecasts by the NCRFC in their coverage area. 57(!) of them are forecasted to be at moderate or major flood stage within the next week. And that number is probably going to continue going up with the wet pattern forecasted for this week and next weekend. We really went from a dodged bullet to an oh **** moment in like the last 36 hours. This is going to be a very long 2-3 weeks at least for the Mississippi River basin. Oh and btw this is exactly how 93 started, a large snowmelt flood that just kept getting added on because it wouldn't stop raining for three months. Now not saying that that's going to happen here obviously, but the parallels are troubling.

Lol 5 days after nearly hitting 90 and areas could get a foot of snow. Yeah, ok. Just keep it west Idc.

Well I spoke too soon about escaping major flooding along the Mississippi. The precip from this weekend has now been factored into the forecasts and every gauge from Brooklyn Park to La Crosse sans Alma are forecasted to be at Major or high Moderate flood stage within the next week. Some of them like Hastings are starting to get close to the 2001 crests. Further east, the main deformation band should get up to 2" of precip either rain or snow which is just going to do wonders to the already high tributaries. Plus whatever snow that does fall will pretty much immediately start melting once the storm is over so that's great. We also got precip chances next week again which could do the same thing all over again.

There are over 30 different flood warnings and watches out right now across WI, MN, and the UP. Several rivers including the Mississippi are at or forecasted to be at moderate flood stage. While this isn't quite hitting the worst-case scenario for this melt, still a major flood for the Mississippi basin. Will be interesting to see how much, if any, effect the storm later this weekend will affect the rivers.

We overperformed here in GRB as well, with a high of at least 85. The models almost always seem to underdo these warm, windy, sunny days when we don't have green vegetation yet.

Well the flood has already started in earnest across the Upper Midwest. Every major river has at least 2 or 3 gauges either at or predicted to reach flood stage. Mostly minor flooding, although there are some notable exceptions. The Wisconsin at Portage, WI is predicted to be at moderate flood stage all week long. While the St Croix at Stillwater is forecasted to reach major flood stage, and as of right now a #7 all time crest and the highest since 2001. The Mississippi at Wabasha is also predicted to reach moderate flood stage, with additional rises possible thereafter. This will be an evolving situation all week long, although thankfully we have like no precip chances for a little while yet so that is going to help.

Quite a few flood warnings out at this point across Wisconsin. Nothing super major, and pretty much all the usual spots. But still, flood warnings with a major warm wave next week to melt the snowpack. I'm not going to be shocked if we start getting some flood-related headlines next week because of that.

I'd go a solid B+ here. December was pretty good with the Christmas Blizzard delivering some pretty top-tier winter conditions even with the small amount of snow. Plus it gave a legit white Christmas which is a big feat considering the last decade or so. The three weeks after Christmas were really really blehh and are the reason I can't give an A for this winter. Because they really sucked a lot. Love it being wintrier on my Spring break than my Winter break. After coming back to campus here in January, the rest of the month wasn't actually too bad, although we only really had deep winter conditions for about a week. February started off really warm, with multiple record highs the week of Valentine's Day. It legit felt like a morning from about now on Valentines Day. And then the rally started the next week. The 2/21-23 storm did underperform compared to what it was modeled 24 hours out which sucked, but it did give a really good snow day so that was a plus. This storm started an almost 50" rally in the next month, culminating in the surprise snowfall on 3/25. Obviously way overperformed with a total of ~15" here. That storm was some of the heaviest rates I have ever seen, and the most snow I have seen personally since 12/20/12. Also ended up being a top 10 daily snowfall for Madison, which is still insane. We still have snowpiles here and it's been a week and a half of 40s and sun with some rain. Overall, despite the blehh stretch in January and early February, any winter that has such a late rally like we did with a legit big dog deserves at least a B grade.

I don't agree with that we are already almost done at all. In fact, I argue we have barely started. While yes there has been some snowmelt to the south of MSP and in the urban area, outside of there the snowpack has been hardly touched at all. Even before this last storm there was still 18"+ of snow in the Northwoods, and they just got another foot+ on top of it. Hayward is still at 30"+ of snowpack, which is just insane considering how late it is in the year. And the SWE is still at record high levels for this time of year. After Tuesday's storm, we should be done for at least the next few days with storms, and it should warm up to the 40s and 50s. The melt will start in ernest then. And this snowpack is going to take a while to melt, as it is so wet and icy.

Yeah if you guys don't get at least 4-5 inches out of Tuesday's storm, your probably not going to hit the record unless something really stupid happens later in the month. The overall pattern looks to be shifting to warmth or at least average (finally) and while there is a chance for snow for a couple more weeks yet at MSP's latitude. It's pretty hard to do anything significant outside of a 4/13/18 style event which most likely isn't happening.

ARX has already put out flood watches for the usual spots, the Black at Black River Falls and Galesburg, and the Yellow at Necedah. Tomorrow's storm is going to definitely increase the flood threat. We should be getting at least 1.5 to 2" QPF across most of the Northwoods. While most of that will be snow (again) up there, areas to the south such as the Fox Valley should be mostly rain until Friday night. Some areas around Rhinelander could reach another foot of snow. What this does however is dramatically increase the snowpack for next Tuesday's storm. Which as of rn, is modeled to be warmer and have a farther north heavy rain threat. On top of the snowpack. Next Tuesday and onward could potentially be a significant flood threat because of this, especially with streams running high after tomorrow.

One thing with this incoming stormy pattern, it is probably going to be a wet first 2 weeks of April across most of the subforum. With areas to the NW potentially still getting snow ala April 2013. Hopefully not to that extent though.

With the increased chances for warmth and rain this week for more northern areas, the flood risk probably starts to rise this week. We could have a decently heavy rain chance on Thursday/Friday up here, on top of whatever remains of the snowpack from this last weekend and with river levels quite high. Could get some rain on the still quite large snowpack up north as well. The extended looks very stormy and wet at least somewhere in the subforum, and we definitely have an increased chance of flooding across the entire subforum over the next two weeks.

We had sun and 40s all day yesterday, plus some sun and warmth in the afternoon after the storm ended at Madison. Madison reached 44 after the clouds moved off. This stuff started to melt/evaporate basically as soon as the storm was over.

This March has been one for the record books when it comes to snowfall at Madison and Green Bay. At Madison, there has been 25.3" of snow recorded this month. This is good for the 4th snowiest March on record. This total also enters 2022-23 into a very elite club of winters with 4 consecutive months of double-digit snowfall. This has only been done 3 times previously. 2007-08, 1992-93, 1985-86, and 1886-87. 07-08, 92-93, and 1886-87 were all Dec-March while 85-86 was Nov-Feb. Along with this, the strech from 03/09 to 03/12 tied for 2nd for most consecutive days with a daily snowfall >1" with 4. At Green Bay, the monthly total is 25.5" of snow, which is the third snowiest March of all time. With the caveat that GRB really missed out on the highest totals in both of the major storms this month, so this may be as high as 32" in some areas of the Green Bay metro. Overall, 2022-23 is now up to 73.5" of snow for the season. This slots it in between the esteemed winters of 2013-14 and 2018-19 for annual snow. Which is incredible, considering that Green Bay only had 27.5" for the season as of February 20th. We have recorded 46.1" of snow in 35 days. That is more snow than 18-19 did in the same span of time. Overall, the last month and change have been an all-time stretch of snow for both Madison and Green Bay. Now hopefully we are done with this and can finally move on to actual Spring weather. And maybe Friday can be Green Bay's first 50+ of the year...on March 31st...

So final totals ended up being 12.1" at Madison and 10" even at Green Bay. GRB just barely missed out on the max snowband, as there were several 12-15" reports all across the metro. I estimate we recieved about 15" here total at my campus. Today it is sunny and in the low 40's out. The snowpack is melting incredibly quickly. Or rather evaporating because there really isn't that much melt water out. Kind of what happens when you have the sun angle equivalent of September 16th.

Just insane snow amounts all over the state today. This is going to be one of if not the most widespread 12"+ snowfalls in this state since 12/20/12. This is also now in the top 10 for daily snowfalls in Madison's history, with snow still falling. Today's storm is going to go down as one of the biggest overperformers in the Midwest at least in the last 15 years, if not since 2000.

I guess I way underestimated how much snow there is out. There's a report from just east of me of 8" of snow. In like three hours. These are some of the heaviest rates I have experienced in quite some time. Insane considering that it's March 25th. Also with this storm we are going to be entering at least the top 10 if not top 5 snowiest Marches all time at Madison and Green Bay.

We are experiencing 2-3" hour rates here right now from this. When I went to bed at midnight it was practically bare ground, and now there's at least 4" on the ground. The deformation band is just sitting right on top of us. We are going to way overperform on this storm.

This is where this cold pattern is really hurting us right now. The longer we stay cold, the more snow gets dumped on the snowpack and the higher the chance of a hard flip occurs. It also increases the risk of getting a rain event on such a wet snowpack as well.

Some figures to help illustrate the amount of snow within these basins.

We are in store for potentially a major flooding event this spring along the main-stem rivers. The constant snowfalls in the Northwoods and Minnesota have created a near record snowpack across much of that region. Several stations are very close to breaking their monthly snow depth records or even their all time snow depth records. This snowpack also has an incredible amount of SWE within the pack. Most of the region is within the 90th percentile for SWE, with a widespread 4-7" throughout the region. These factors coupled with a well above average start to the year for precip to the south have set the stage for a potential major flooding event sometime within the next month along most of the main stem rivers within the Midwest.