etudiant

It might be worth checking what the pattern is for the west coast to tease out the differential impact. California is in a prolonged drought, despite the increase in SST. Are they also getting mostly increases in their night time lows?

I hope your happy vision comes about, but don't see how it can without much pain. Wind and solar are intermittent, they need backup, which implies massive capacity(expensive) on standby, in addition to the green energy conversion costs. Simultaneously, cutting Russian oil really squeezes global fuel production, implying shortages, which generate higher prices. So the consumer gets hit with higher priced gas and more costly electricity during the transition, which can't be quick. If nuclear were not such a swamp of massive delays and cost overruns, this could be its moment to shine, but the still available workforce that is qualified for these projects is small and mostly old, so not a plausible option.

The volume of nuclear waste is tiny and easily managed, unlike the cubic miles of coal ash and scrubber residues, which are themselves quite unpleasant wit heavy metals that have infinite half life, they stay toxic forever. That said, the inability of the nuclear industry to build on a reliable schedule and at a reasonable price is far more damaging to its prospects than the objections of anti nuclear activists.

Maybe Snowman19 is just trying to keep things honest. Lord knows that there have been plenty of surprises already this winter, temps bouncing up and down, so recognize that longer range forecasts are pretty iffy at best. Even the groundhogs don't seem to agree on the six week outlook. That said, Red wing Blackbirds are back in Central Park, so spring is definitely imminent here in NYC.

Sadly still short of the mark, energy output half of input. That said, there is steady progress and we are getting closer. The emergence of a number of well funded private efforts is perhaps another indicator that we are getting closer. The main problem though is that the device has to be cheap enough to build, else the interest expenses will swamp the low power production costs. Most of the designs to date ignore that problem.

Help me understand. I've seen zero evidence that any kind of climate change has impacted the formation of contrails. We do have a lot more jets flying around, dumping lots of CO2 and water vapor from their engines. So there are many more contrails, but does climate change affects that?

Afaik, the polar ice, including the multi year ice, gradually rotates around the pole following the ocean currents. There are exit paths from the Arctic Ocean, such as the Fram Straits, through which masses of even multi year ice can be lost. The Titanic was a casualty of one such large outflow event. It suggests that changes in ocean flows are a substantial factor in determining the durability and extent of Arctic multi year ice, possibly amplifying the effects of temperature.

Thank you ! Very nice.

Very clever, teach the kids early that they should not rely on the parent for answers to their problems. Well done!

Think that getting a large eruption caught in the act by a very capable satellite is what these scientists dream about.. That said, Krakatoa was much more devastating, perhaps because it was in a more settled space. But also the shock wave was recorded sweeping the earth repeatedly, so a much larger amplitude event.

Thank you all, Miller.b.time, so- whats-happening and Dalfy! You've really posted useful info. Is it possible these recommendations could be put on a sticky?

Hey Irish, So sorry to hear about your family issues. We all have them, in greater or lesser amounts. Sadly we all get old and frail, certainly not what we'd planned for, but life happens. Just keep the faith, it will work out somehow. Please keep adding your wit and wisdom to this site, it's what makes the place worth visiting.

So just about a bullseye, by long range forecasting standards.

A serious loss. I cannot understand why such an enormously talented and skilled individual is not taken up by some meteorological site. I'd pay to read what this man thinks, suspect others might as well.

At least for the northern hemisphere. I believe the Antarctic is considerably less icy than usual.

Just start from the bottom. There is more there as well...

If you have to ask, 100% sure.

Absolutely, they are just as lazy as we are, so they do the minimum migration necessary. If they sense that they cut it too fine, they head further south. Sadly we've not got their weather smarts, so we get surprised every time.

Lovely dog, just in great shape. But why call her 'Lake Placid'? Extra calm disposition, unusual for that breed?

Honestly doubt that the quantum world uncertainties will impact our mundane weather and climate issues. Right now, afaik, we cannot even model the impact of earth's spin along with the daytime and nighttime on the atmosphere all that well and nor has any model generated the Roman or the Medieval climatic optimum, so we are still groping with the basics. Lots of room for humility in climate science, imho.

The site is surrounded by a 10' cyclone fence with razor wire on top, so it takes determination to vandalize these instruments. Actually, the Park is pretty well cared for at the moment, vandalism is down to its lowest levels in decades. However, the tree cover is also at its fullest in decades and surely skews the readings. I'd not thought of the trades driven by cooling degree days, but there is a very active market in that supporting the natural gas futures. Possibly there might be a legal liability here.

Thought that tree rings measure warm season moisture, rather than temperature. Separately, I have to question this graph, if only because the Briffa tree ring data showed a decline since the mid 1900s, which is not reflected here.

So we need lots of electric generating capacity to power all those cheap electric cars. Is that why the price of coal has gone way up recently?

Japan, whose population is falling, has been the precursor country for all of the industrialized world, in Europe, the Americas and Asia. Their populations too are aging, with way below replacement birth rates. China and increasingly India are on the same trajectory Overpopulation is getting to be a regional issue, mostly in Muslim communities.

Sad to say, no confidence at all in any of these 'forecasts'. Here in sunny Manhattan, the forecast changed in minutes from weekly nighttime lows in the high 40s to the mid 30s . Clearly there remains great uncertainty. Imho, forecasts will not improve until forecasters are compelled to post their prior forecasts as well. Right now, the past is completely opaque, no weather channel afaik allows one to go back a day to see what actually happened. This unwillingness to honestly face up to what worked and what did not is probably a result of TV/net channel pressures, the effect remains the same. Those unable to learn from the past simply make the same mistakes again.