etudiant

So what is your implication, that we will see rising arctic ice levels from here on out?

Just wish there was a little more humility all around. With a reliable instrument record dating back two centuries at most, we have no real experience in the inherent variability of the environment. It would help if there were longer term records of first frosts and such, but afaik, nobody thought that was important until recently. Hence we get excited whenever our short experience base gets exceeded. Great for papers, not necessarily so for actual understanding. icne

Texas decided to stay off the federal infrastructure, so there is no meaningful power transfer possible between Texas and the rest of the USA. Someone would need to pay for the needed gigawatt power links from the rest of the country, if that was indeed available. That said, I think it disgustingly irresponsible to sell power without some minimal reliability standard. In Texas, that apparently was the norm.

The Texas outages were largely the result of there being no legal disincentive for providing unreliable power, just so long as it was cheaper. So no one winterized their turbines, feed water pumps or gas extraction stations, not cost effective. Result was gas powered capacity shut down for lack of gas, nuclear plant offline because the feed water pump sensors froze, coal plants shut because the coal was frozen in and wind turbines dead because they were frozen. Bad regulations caused this debacle, not 'green energy'.

TWC is an IBM company and IBM was loudly advertising their powerful AI based forecasting prowess. So this forecast is perhaps a reality check, there is still lots of room for improvement in this space.

A bold assertion indeed. Not a projection that I can put much stock in. Given how erratic this winter has been, we'll probably wind up with a blizzard in May.

The updated NSIDC trend lines support your supposition. Also the Arctic is considerably warmer than usual this year.. https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

The data on that link also stop at Feb 19th and the scan map shows that one sector was unscanned, which was the cause of the sudden downturn. Maybe a data processing issue with the satellite or the ground station?

Slant sticking again in Central Park?

No expert, but the data at : https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRT2.html show some sort of glitch since Feb 19th. Is there a better source? Separately, I do agree that the recent ice trends have been suggestive of an early peak, but we do need a better confirm.

Thank you for this helpful link. I'm obviously a dinosaur, but I thought it a mistake to ditch the old style weather maps with the fronts indicated. I don't find the maps with colored blobs of hi and lo pressure as informative.

Is it just me, seeing leak paths all over the place here? Guess I was too long at the fair in suburbia...

Agree entirely, but this is just stupid, not politics. A f***g nuclear plant going off stream because the cooling water pumps were frozen??? Just brain dead greed imho.

Sadly it is only after such catastrophes that we learn to set serious standards. Shipping is safer because of the Titanic, buildings are safer because of the Triangle Shirt Waist fire, Texas had lots of warning that cold spells could be a problem, but no one hit the mule over the head with a 2x4 to help it see reason. Imho this is just another lesson that will soon be forgotten.

Afaik, the grid managers are prioritizing locations with hospitals and similar sensitive facilities, at the expense of residential and industrial sectors. Not sure how easily that is actually implemented though...

Well, I've only been there in winter along the eastern coast, so can attest robust deep snow cover. But don't have any idea of seasonal averages.

Hokkaido is considerably (about 500 miles) further north than is Tokyo, so it gets snow where Tokyo gets rain. The liquid equivalents may even be in the same ballpark.

Does no one make rubber shoes with some sort of spiked sole? They don't need to be huge spikes, just enough to give some grip on slick surfaces.

That's nature coming back. Sneeze and be grateful!

Is it feasible to show the first sign in date for the posters? That would perhaps allow us to filter the socks.

Whatever happened to the record cold NYC was supposed to experience this weekend?

Very wet snow falling in Manhattan UES since about 9.30 AM, mostly melting on contact. Actual accumulation is modest, perhaps an inch as of 1PM. Would guess it might be a more substantial event further north.

The super premium super tall apartments are mostly empty, owned by absent individuals to serve as a pied a terre on visits and as a safe stash of funds. Not so many actually live there, so NYC gets eyesores that don't even give much back economically to the community.

Now that this is in the books, did JB's expectation of 40"+ in the Poconos verify? I've always respected his meteorological chops and he did get it right that this would be a big one, but he does get very enthusiastic when in the chase.