chris21

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, not too much to speak of. Slightly drier.

Kind of all over the place... the para is a fair amount wetter at 18z. Gfs is a little drier but includes more sleet now. RGEM is a nasty ice storm with over .3, icon is .4 and euro is .4. 3k was a lot wetter at 18z than 12z and the NAM was pretty much the same.

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

These huge icers can happen but mostly not . There have been some but last time it was like what is being portrayed was 1999.

That 99’ storm was really brutal in Bethesda. Power out for a week and extensive tree damage even though the temp warmed up to 50 the next day. Not sure anyone has been forecasting that (3/4 inch of ice)... but an RGEM/euro combo would be a warning level Ice storm in the district with temps in the 20s.

Just now, CentralVaNATS said:

Ice Storm Warning now. However the NAM doest think so as it barely gets precip up to EZF

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

It gets about .2 qpf up to dc.

5 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

I am not sure where you live, but for me in Herndon this is currently a non-event. Short Pump to Eastern Shore looks interesting...

I think even .03 of freezing rain in these temps in dc would be more impactful than any event we’ve had. I could be wrong... just my experience with ice events with cold temps.

3 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

2 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

Looks like a non-storm for our area. Same pattern we have seen for most of the winter and especially the past few weeks. I think it is time we join @BristowWx  with our favorite beverage and FORGITABOUTIT!!

I think this will actually be the most impactful event in dc so far this winter. Not saying much...

4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

So much contradicting commentary on the PBP lol

Lol! I’d say the NAM pretty much held serve. Roughly .2 of qpf at 12z with maybe .16 at 18z. The 3k is a lot wetter though... it had no precip within 50 miles of dc in the 12z run. Goalposts prob narrowing but each model now shows between .15 and .4 of sleet/freezing rain falling with temps between 26 and 29.

RGEM would be over .2 qpf... a bit of sleet to freezing rain with temps around 26-29 in DC, while the icon went back to the idea of a half inch of ice with temps in the mid 20s at 12z.

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

NAM looks to be making a comeback so far...

I know everyone is rooting against the ice storm, but as psu mentioned, a stronger wave on sat would not allow the Sunday wave enough space to amp up.

7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

HRRR has light icing in the area saturday afternoon but its spotty...seems like decent consensus now for this to be a spotty icing event...some issues still but not all that bad

I’m still seeing .15- .2 qpf of ice with temps of 28-29 in dc by hr. 42 with freezing rain ongoing.

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Normally a day and a half out, I could look at that euro projection and be rather confident that it will at least be close to verification. Honestly though, lately, I might as well be looking at the 51 hour RAP.

6 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Such a cold airmass that DCA got down to 30 last night (forecast of 27) so another high bust on a low. Forecasted high of 31 so it will be close- meaning it already is. (Actually has already been 31 today, but we will count daytime high.)

You could do this nearly everyday for the past ten years if you are using DCA as an example. DCA is the warmest reading in the entire area at least 9/10 times. The city is usually 2-5 degrees colder (at least my weather station in mt pleasant is).

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

ICON showing the fail scenario mentioned...cold air scoured out...as storm approaches. Dang it...

Lol, for next week? The 00z run I’m seeing has temps in the teens and low 20s. What’s your bar for cold?

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GFS showery/light precip look is probably what you wanna root for if you like accretion.  It’s not gonna be cold enough for heavy rain to accrete I’d think.  

It will still accumulate on everything (particularly at night) if the temp is 31 or below even with heavy rates, it just won’t be as efficient at accumulating.

22 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

The GFS has a discombobulated nonsense system that gives nobody in NOVA/MD significant anything. It does, however, support snow this evening for parts of NOVA. Spoiler alert: it’s probably wrong about this evening based on the EURO/NAM/PARA/HRRR

It spits out a tenth of an inch of freezing rain which would actually still be impactful with a temp in the upper 20s. The GFS is the driest solution by a long shot at this point.

3 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Who wants to bet on zero surface ice accretion in downtown DC?

I bet this will be the one time we overperform.  We certainly did with the ice two weeks ago.

Wow, the NAM is a lot more enthused about the ice prospects after a really dry run at 12z.

UK gets an inch to an inch and a half to dc.

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know most of ya'll don't care about this panel but this... this'll do.

Hey man... the HRRR has dc in some light snow tonight for the first time as of the latest run. I’m starting to care a bit more after this latest debacle. 

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

CMC is a nasty ice storm Saturday night and also has the light snow through my area Monday. The Tuesday storm is snow west of the cities and ice in the cities. Quick hitter like the ICON.

CMC really beefed up qpf for Saturday. Kind of surprised to see that to be honest. 

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

this winter reminds me of some of the 90s storms (aka mixy).  it wouldn't surprise me if the generally above average atlantic temps (notably the gulf stream) are playing a role as well.  i think there's something to be said about starting the season off cold from canada on down for snowpack and cooler water temps.  if it's going to take longer in the season to get those variables to work in our favor, then feb could be even more of a prime climo here than before.

This could also be why March has become more of a winter month in dc lately.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month!   This looks like a match to every big DC snow period. And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have  suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate. 

It will snow again in DC!!

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Anything marginal is rain in the DC area. The "ice threat" is code for more rain. Not that ice on trees is fun or anything. I'll take 50 and sunny over mud and broken trees.

We had a nice ice storm that accumulated on the roads here in nw dc less than two weeks ago.

35/31 rain snow mix in NW.  

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The UK is better for the DC area. A little colder at least. 

Yeah... the trends def are not good but we have a major issue with calling  a storm before it even starts. The last three day snowfall was  an excellent example... everyone was whining and bitching for days but we still managed 5.5 beautiful inches in nw and I enjoyed it thoroughly. Some of our members would should check out Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations.

2 minutes ago, ge0 said:

have we ever busted high? I can't remember the last time. 2009 maybe?

We have busted high many a time. Most recently Jan 2019 was a nice positive bust.