chris21

24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

30 yesterday 

33 today 

Only 36 for a high so far in NW DC.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

If this fails the lingering of the early week system which decreases the spacing and prevents ridging from really going up behind it is probably the biggest culprit. It’s the biggest change in the overall pattern from when I looked at it a week ago and really like it. The spacing isn’t as good now. Of course as the system approaches we are barely on the cold side and temps crash as the coastal forms...so whose to set had ridging gone up more this doesn’t cut and jump to the coast too far north like a lot of the gefs members that rained on us the other day. Our “win zone” with every storm is so narrow with the current temperature profile.  

I’d also think that traditionally, with a low as strong as the GFS is depicting moving across southern Virginia it would create a larger shield of snow on the north side. 

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

95% of the population lives near I-95. There hasn't been a real ice storm in that zone since 1994.

You are basically in a totally different climate zone from these people. 

We had a terrible one in Jan 99’. At least 1/2 inch of ice.

30 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

In 15 years of living in the city I can't recall ever seeing ice accretion due to freezing rain.. I look forward to this event! 

We have def had ice storms in NW over the past 15 years. It was more than 15 years ago, but there was a huge one in 99’.

Just now, ryanconway63 said:

The 6z Para GFS seems most realistic to me at this point.   I cant get excited with what the Euro is currently showing.....If a MECS was coming the Euro will definitely pick up on it by 12z today.  If not ill remain extremely skeptical 

Not sure we can make any definitive statements on this one yet... the models have been struggling mightily in this pattern. It’s been really tough to even search for trends... every time it seems there is one, the models shift the next suite. I’d keep an open mind...

Just now, CAPE said:

My current forecast is snow/sleet/freezing rain ending as light rain Tuesday morning.

Times are lean, so if I can get a decent coating of something frozen on the ground, I guess I am good with that.

Truth right there

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I mean is it snow for anyone or just some weak dry heave like a cat bringing up a fur ball?

It’s snow, just not that much...

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

That would be a death kiss south of I-70.

Looks like an ice situation south of 1-70

2m temps are scorched on the NAM.

The 3k nam is showing  snow shower/squall potential tomorrow across the region tomorrow.

6 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

This one is going south. 1045 banana high strengthening with each op run. The ensembles look ok but still mostly signal northern va/md as the top of the precip shield. The trend this winter has also been, imo, for waves to trend a little weaker than modeled in 5-7 day time frame. This one will unfortunately probably do the same and with little amplification and a strong wrap around high to our north... this ain’t the one

Wow that’s a pretty bold call 6-7 days out. You could be right, but I’m going to withhold my judgement for a few more days.

There were several severe ice storms (even in dc proper) around the dates on the 6-10/8-14 day analog chart.

Just now, jaydreb said:

GFS looks icy for western areas.  No blue over DC though.  

2m temps are below freezing the entire storm in the metro area. Not even close really.

23 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

It does differ but still offers no snow, looks like freezing rain.  It does have another possible weird looking snow event later in the month but the surface looks really strange.  The euro does offer some front end snow but with the surface track and development its got,  I'm not sure I buy but hope it's right.

I was worried about potential late month cold killing off the newly ubiquitous speckled trout stocks in the lower bay estuaries. Not that worried at this point, next month maybe...

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

North of the CMC???  I honestly thought that cmc run was eye opening bad in how far north it was. Kinda hoped that would be an extreme outlier. 

It was somehow even further north than that at 00z.

5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Unfortunately the Canadian also is onboard the GFS express. It looks much different over Canada at 500h but not enough.  I'm supposed to be a Winter weather Expert and the last two years, there has been no storms to write about. 

I thought the GFS looked somewhat different than the Canadian for the first storm. Am I missing something here?

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS 3 inch probability maps increased from 0Z but the 6 inch prob maps decreased.

Is the storm completely finished by 144?

15 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

The boys at Bam moving right on to cancelling winter now 

Those are somewhat misleading graphics to say the least. Those guys do weather like partisans do politics... which is weird.

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Excellent 

Chya!

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB EURO 1pm next Mon good run!

A light-moderate uncomplicated event. Sign me up!

11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

That looks like quick thump to rain to me.

It’s a quick thump to rain on the GFS. All snow on the Euro.

4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Same climo

Huh? It was like an inch or 2 for long periods of time.  The blinds were closed. 

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

Another late Jan climo map for 15 days - valid for any given year

Ha! you should've seen it last year!

2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

I’ve never been to Romney but I’ve heard some nice things about that town.

I would say 3-8” total event would be a safe bet. Elevation depending. 3” inches for lower elevations up 8” for the mountains.

Id be shocked if Romney got an inch.  Northwest flow snows may provide a snow shower occasionally but in Romney, a NW wind is downsloping which dries up all of the moisture deposited on the Allegheny Front.

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Can you show me on that map where Romney WV is?  I’ve been offered a cabin out there on a ridge of like 1000 feet. I think it’s 10-15 miles sw of town. Do any of you all know much about that spot? I know a lot of you have mountain places. Is Romney a nice town? Jon Jon, is that anywhere near you?

Thanks 

 

Romney is def not my fav spot in West Virginia. I'm sure there are nice cabins, but it is in the rainshadow area.  They may average 25-28 inches of snow per year if they are lucky. 20-30 miles to the west lies dolly sods and the Allegheny Front and 150 inches of yearly snowfall.