chris21

2 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Alrighty then....

The ICON predicted a couple mailings for us last year... didn’t work out too well.

10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Might be a scenario where the GFS UHI is too aggressive 

UHI is really tricky for the models to predict. Either underdone or overdone most of the time.

Just now, MN Transplant said:

It is mid-December and the airmass is marginal.  This doesn't usually work out well for the low-landers.

True, but with an epically placed 1040 high we still have a shot.

5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

No man. 0Z euro and 6z gfs are trending significant my worse for 95 crew. I use snow depth maps instead of snowfall, which most don’t want to look at but are way more realistic especially for cities. 
 

Plain truth is warm layers are farther west. Dca went from 9.9” to 2.4”. One op run but I can’t see how this isn’t worse. Ens are still good but like I’ve said for past couple of days. This will eventually shift more west and this is not surprising, and is not great (no sugar coat) for even those 10-15 miles WEST of the belt way. Great being relative, of course

6z

 

0Z 

Pivotal weather snow depth maps are notoriously inaccurate. I’d prob look at soundings and make your own determination rather than rely the snow depth maps. 

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The lack of any cold air in the CONUS this year is stunning.

certainly true, but also not that unusual over the last 30 years in early December.

7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I pretty much agree. I doubt anything happens before Christmas, so then there’s a week after that. Maybe somebody in the forum gets lucky with something but I doubt a widespread accumulating event is in the cards

We all know that climo is hostile to that idea in dec but without more meteorological reasoning I’m not sure what the point of all of these type of posts is.

Check out hr. 105 on the Euro! Light snow!

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I remember one legit one, when I lived in Carroll county. Strong cold front with heavy snow squalls(and thunder) where it melted on the roads for like the first 5-10 mins as temps crashed.

We had a couple good ones in 2013-2015.