chris21

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I guess I was more thinking lawns were dead last summer by August in drought… ground vegetation wilted not long after that, and then I’d figure the trees cut their losses for the year early and went dormant.

What was the drought situation in Great Lakes last summer?  Similar to parts of Northeast?

Obviously there are a lot of factors, I guess my point was there are extenuating factors but I probably have better photo documentation than most folks and it happens to end within a general 7-10 day period yearly.

Theres much more variation on the front end of fall foliage, but even in the warmest years it hits a point where it falls off a cliff and changes extremely rapidly.  I always assumed that was the solar input.

Like sometimes it’s a long foliage season with almost two peaks between Sept 15-Oct 15 here… other times it’s a quick acute change Oct 5-15.  But after say Oct 15th, for whatever reason (solar?) it’s very hard to carry a full forest of leaves at this latitude.  Even if they just go golden brown and fall off.  There’s a much sharper back end to it IMO, the variation is more on the front end.

By October 20th, even the leaves in the high elevation areas in the Allegheny mountain region of West Virginia are long gone. Already have had many nights in the upper 20s and lower 30s out that way. Can’t imagine leaves would still be out in NNE.

The coolest anomalies have always rarely made it to the coast following fall fropa in my experience.

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Ian over on Twitter is also debbing the threat a bit (saying it may be shifted NE of us). I get these opinions - though at the same time mesoanalysis DOES show 500-1000 MLCAPE in the area. That should be enough to sustain some sort of threat. Sure - best may be NE of us - but I'm not ready to deb at all yet. Breaks in the clouds are close enough to many of us as well. 

Sun is out just east of DC in Riverdale.

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think the tornado risk west of the bay is pretty marginal. Any chance of a decent TOR is probably across Delmarva or S NJ. 

A position diametrically opposed to the latest SPC discussion.

Looks like models might be setting up a second, lesser qpf max from dc-south jersey

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z NAM.  Complete disaster if this had been a snow storm.  Lot of forecast busts on the way…

Ehhh... the models are going to struggle with the placement of the heaviest rains as is typical in this situation.  Either way, a lot of times the east side of these storms is where the most action occurs.

3 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Exactly!

We don't really get blistering triple digit heat any more.  90s with mid to upper 70s dews are worse!
Yesterday felt great!

We get more triple digit heat than we ever did before. Check out the new averages.

Actually snowed 5-6 inches on the bay in Ridge, MD mid April in 2006 or 2007.  Crazy intense nighttime snow squalls. Melted from the ground up!

I know it's incredibly rare but 3/29/84 is a good example of a late season anafrontal snow. 

43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Anafrontal snow in April. Lock it up.

39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EURO

The ole’ Chincoteague late March jackpot. 

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Love the dry look. Idc if it is +15 or -15. With little/no chance for snow, bring the dry and lots of wind. 

Sounds good to me also! Heading to Canaan valley for a long weekend 5-8th hoping for some upslope. After that... fishing season is on!! Also the season for hanging out on the patio with some cold ones and 73-74 dead on the stereo.

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GEFS shows 5-day 2m temp positive departures throughout the run for us.  I’m good with that.

Wow... the gefs is kind of on an island with regard to next weekend then. Looks quite colder than normal across guidance unless I’m missing something.

1 hour ago, Potvinsux said:

Snow just started falling in Snowshoe.   27" still OTG!

Is the circus in town?

Lol at the extreme synoptic differences between the gfs and para and cmc after day 4. Just for posterity... the cmc and the 00z ec are very close synoptically with the para in that camp as well. What’s 30 degrees and a couple inches of qpf between friends anyway. CMC with a completely different solution as well bringing cold and snow showers next weekend. 

3 hours ago, leemoshack said:

Come to Annapolis one block from the bay and our high yesterday was 48. Still have snow in north facing areas although today it should be done. We struggle with spring due to cold bay waters 

As an avid fisherman... It’s honestly kind of brutal until the bay warms up to around 65. Last year, even down in Lusby, east flow caused temps in the mid 50s and drizzle on Memorial Day weekend.

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

GEFS saying pack it in, EPS saying one more shot of glory.  Obviously just a ten day snapshot but the EPS looks more conducive to trying to keep winter opportunities around.

Para actually looks a lot closer to the Euro at 6z. Interesting to see such a crazy divergence between the American models going forward.

11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

OT but that will forever be one of my most vivid weather memories. My mom had just had a hip replacement and was at home recovering, my aunt was staying with us to help take care of her and my dad had just had a standby generator put in (finally...after losing power so much in the years before that). 

I remember seeing the huge swaths of warnings but the diminishing radar appearance and thinking it might be a dud once it got to us. But once it became clear it was intense, I told some friends of mine who were in a little boat on the bay to get back to shore. They laughed me off like I was over exaggerating - but I finally convinced them it was the right call. The next day they told me that they honestly think that night might have been a very different story for them had I not been on the phone with them pleading with them to get to shore. 

And seeing Ian's story of being down in DC trying to shelter from the storm was one to remember too. 

It easily topped June 4, 2008 for me. The only reason June 4, 2008 REALLY stands out for me is that I was still in HS and had to sprint home after school to make it home before things got really nasty. I'm actually not sure I even lost power in 2008. 2012 I was without it for days. 

I’ve been on the bay during some nasty storms... you no doubt prevented a bad situation... having experienced the 2012 derecho, a small boat in open water in the bay most likely would have capsized very quickly in 70-80 mph straight line winds.

Absolutely dumping in Canaan per the white grass webcams. From a brief analysis of the data on Canaan snow, the 23 inch snowpack there appears to have a remarkable liquid equivalent (over 8 inches of qpf has fallen as snow with little melting for the past two months).

Legit light-mid snow in nw dc. 32/24. Sticking on all exposed surfaces.

5 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

There’s like zero chance of that map being right, but come March, I’m ready for it.

And @WxWatcher007, if you’re sneaking around this thread looking for victims, count me out. I’ll still be looking for snow between fishing days.

Same. Shad should be running in three-four weeks even if it’s cold.

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Every single torch this winter  modeled at range got muted to just 1 or 2 days of 5-10F above normal.  I'm going with seasonal trends 

I’ll say this... I have a snowboarding trip to Canaan on March 4-7th.... not too worried about it being wintery. Look at the 12z models. Being a resident of dc for 30 years... spring doesn’t come cheap.

2 hours ago, Fozz said:

2021 has the potential to be one of the best years of my life. I'm hoping it's the year I get engaged.

As for the weather, March is looking really damn warm especially in the first week. If only last spring had that warmth when the lockdowns were just getting started...

Lol... que the 12z runs gfs/para and a persistent east coast trough with a building -NAO. Wouldn’t bet against March blocking this year given the seasonal trends (really going back to last fall).

Light snow (rimed flakes) coming down at a decent clip in adams Morgan/mt. Pleasant. 29.

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s not getting about attention the fact wave 2 was on all guidance at 0 and 6z and most at 12z then just totally failed. It was a consensus .2-.3 qpf. Imagine if that was it...we would have been tracking a 1-3” snow that totally evaporated to nothing 12 hours out. Guidance is really struggling right now. It’s understandable to have shifts like that from 48 hours on out but they are struggling with things in nowcast even. 

In a winter where guidance has consistently struggled... I’m still stunned by the divergence between the gfs/para and really all of the other models (although most now depict a tenth of inch of qpf). 18z GFS shows a really nasty ice storm overnight. 

Just now, wkd said:

On the Nam or GFS,  looking at the "positive snow depth change" usually is much more realistic but not as fun to look at.

That works until it doesn’t lol. When there is an actual snow event it will almost always under forecast  totals.