Cobalt

Looks effectively identical to 0z's output, though definitely subtracted a bit East of DC.

10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will?

Wow, this clearly shows that record highs have been outpacing record lows at a near 4:1 or 5:1 rate since 2020. Even at the apex of record highs in the 1930s the ratio was only 3:1 at max. Chris Martz is incredibly agenda-driven so that is likely why he didn't accompany this graph with one showing the ratio of high to low records, it would've dismantled his entire argument. Instead he has to rely on big scary numbers and his audience's lack of critical thinking, which is a pretty easy thing to bank on.

0z drove the primary into Buffalo so this is decisive improvement.

It's not the GFS, that's for sure.

Even just modest snowstorms in La Ninas are rare and to be appreciated any time they happen. This is missing Feb 12th from last year, but here's a list of every 5"+ La Nina snowstorm at DCA in the 21st century. The 2010s had just one instance.

@qg_omegahas the easiest job on planet earth in predicting warm East coast winters and has been wrong 2 years running. After predicting record warmth last winter and being off by 5+ degrees I’d have hopped over to the basket weaving forum if I was him. At least there’s less of a chance of being wrong over there.

Where's your mention of all of the cities in the Western US that have had record warm starts to the winter?

Wow, 6F per century if this trend line continues.

this post title from after that winter sums up Ji's entire persona quite well

Out in weenie land but Euro showing a high of 3F for DC on the 27th and a low of -10F on the 28th. Can't see I've seen that modeled by the Euro at any range lol

Boston is running 5.1F colder than 1931-32 at this point in the winter.

CAPE storm back in 2022. GFS was the only one giving that storm a chance up until like 54 hours out. Euro jumped from nothing down to Virginia Beach all the way to 8"+ in DC in maybe 3 runs.

Who doesn't love it when the NAO enters the middle of the country and disrupts the fried eggs coming out of the gulf?

snowman19 only responding in emojis? Why, what happened?

Euro AI Ensemble features BN 850 temperatures from hour 228 through the end of the run. Its accuracy at range was dubious during the overwhelming -WPO regime, but perhaps this will be a better test for it.

What do the median numbers look like? I recall you posting those numbers from pivotal a while back (I believe it's a Pivotal+ exclusive). I'm guessing there's a handful of members who go extreme with the SE ridge and pump big AN anomalies, while the colder scenarios provide pedestrian, yet serviceable cold that does little to revert the mean. Just a guess.

I forget who it was exactly, but during the 2020-2021 winter someone ran the numbers on "snowless" mid-winter stretches at DCA and found that virtually every year in the modern era had at least one 30-45 day break between snowfalls. A few of the analog winters had even more prolific stretches, such as 2005-2006's 58 day break. I suppose that these types of breaks are more stressful in La Ninas because of how snowfall climo runs downhill as winter progresses, but the latter halves of 05-06, 17-18, and even last winter show that this is not always the case.

Not according to the academic literature of the time, but I can see how selective memory would only hold onto the predictions of cooling.

Only 10% of the literature even suggested the idea of predicting global cooling (while 62% predicted warming), but sure. Remember what you want to remember

I don't mean to act like I'm not actively refreshing the kuchera panels as we speak

We're looking at maps so distant in time that quantum computing might come out and improve model accuracy x100 times over before the event actually gets to our doorstep

August 1st through December 21st has averaged 60.7°F at DCA, the coldest for that stretch since the year 2000 (58.4°F), and 1.5°F below the 30 year average.