Cobalt

That warm nose on the Euro is nuts... warmer up at 700mb than it is down at 925mb. Not an airmass we can get a stone cold beatdown with, but still seems wintry.

There's guidelines against not including ice measurements in seasonal totals, right? Might as well tally it up and say I have had 14 inches of "'winter" when those storms are all said and done.

Only if the Euro is wrong, which hasn't happened for a long, long time..

Yes, Feb 20-21 2015. One of my favorite storms as a young weenie. That was near the peak of our arctic blast, and so when precip arrived, temps were still in the mid teens for most across the area. Took a substantial amount of precip until it finally changed over, with 6"+ from IAD west, as well as a glacier on top of it. Pretty sure temps rocketed the day after, but the snowpack was encased pretty well. In fact some areas maintained that snowpack from then until after the March 5-6 snowstorm (another personal favorite).

RAP I'm assuming? At the very least it seems like some areas in our subform will get a shot at substantial precip on both wave 1 and wave 2. Was always thread the needle to get those areas to overlap, but at least most areas are in the game for something, even if minimal.

Wave four

He's put a hex on us for making him quit this board again. That can't be good.

Hm... Canadian remains all snow for NW of DC for this weekend's system. Somewhat light on QPF so that might be why

Canadian is pretty weak sauce wrt wave 2.. it didn't really go south, but it's just not as juiced. At the very least it seems like the jogs south have halted for that. Famous last words.

New GFS wildly disagrees lol. There's quite the difference in output for wave 1 to say the least

RGEM has it too, but maybe a bit slower to develop although 850s are substantially colder. Seems like a pretty interesting system for then. Meanwhile ICON is a complete whiff lol Although the ICON is a pretty substantial hit for next week. Looks to be the period of most interest, and lucky for us we have 2 systems to occupy our minds until then

12k NAM wants to keep scattered precip in the area from Friday until the Saturday system.. are we sure the Saturday storm isn't just wave 3???

Remember when the Euro/Ukie completely willed the Jan 28th storm away at medium range? Seems like the Euro went on a drinking binge after than to celebrate and now the two of them have split up. Euro might be on hard times right now lol.

I remember when the Euro showed 0" 72hrs out for NYC back for the Jan 31st storm. How did that work out lol. But nah, it won't head back in our direction because that's not the Euro way lol

Yup. Stronger confluence in Maine (that's been the trend since 0z today), overall less energetic shortwave. Pretty sure the Euro is now the farthest south with wave 2. Bummer.

Haha there's just a bit going on over the next 7 days

Yup, seems to be less confluence pressing down in Maine vs 12z. That's after the previous two runs strengthened that piece of energy. Seems like most of 18z guidance has halted the southern slide for wave 2, so that's good news at the very least.

Yeah, that's just about my take from the 18z suite so far. Yesterday the prevalent trends were that the initial wave was looking substantially weaker, but also at the same time then the secondary wave wasn't a sure thing. We're pretty certain that wave two will paint a stripe of snow somewhere, I guess it just comes down to if those waves overlap each other in location or not.

ICON is something like a 2-3" deal for this weekend, at least for the general DC area. Hard to tell fully because it's obscured by the last event, but will be easier to see when surface panels come out.

it's also substantially better with the 2nd wave. Probably not worth much because well yunno (it's the icon), but this looks pretty significant.

Is the NAM the only meso showing those substantial mixing issues for the initial wave? All panels (850s, 925s, etc) are a fair bit below freezing from EZF north, yet it still shows 0.1" QPF worth of sleet. Regardless, 0.3"-0.5" QPF for a good bit of the area for wave 1 on the NAM.

GFS and Euro swapped places for Monday lol. But yeah the core of the cold is definitely sticking to our west. Handling of TPV is going to cause some chaos for sure, but still seems like the stage is set for multiple frozen events coupled with at least some cold, even if not arctic.

1041hp isn't pressing down as much as 0z, but the setup still looks super intriguing. Will take that at day 6+ leads.