DownpourDave

You know…. sometimes I forget you don’t have a degree in this stuff, you really know your shit. My degreed PhD Research Advisor could learn a thing or two about long range forecasting(teleconnections in particular) and frankly, so can I. I am much better at short range forecasting, looking at different weather maps(upper level charts, surface analysis maps), and forecast what will happen in 1-3 days. Love using bufkit and MOS which are obviously much better for short range forecasting.

Have you actually done your own research/collect data to back that up? That there is a small correlation?

You’re right that you can, my point is it is harder. The answer is a bit complicated. Part of the answer is in the physical process of rain and snow formation and how fast they fall. Rain forms through liquid droplets coalescing in the atmosphere creating larger and heavier droplets that can fall quicker under the force of gravity Snowflakes form when water vapor turns directly into ice crystals. Snowflakes form at a slower rate than rain droplets and obviously the structure is different with air pockets within the snow flake causing them to be lighter than rain drops. Thus, Rain can physically fall at a faster rate than snow and rain forms at a faster rate. This explains it better. https://geo.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Geography_(Physical)/The_Physical_Environment_(Ritter)/07%3A_Atmospheric_Moisture/7.04%3A_Clouds_and_Precipitation/7.4.03%3A_Precipitation_Process Bergeron Process vs Warm-Rain Process Now assuming that one is dealing with the Bergeron Process for areas that get rain and areas that get snow, rain will still fall at a faster rate due to structure differences between a snow flake vs rain drop.

No need to imagine, the way thermodynamics work, it wouldn’t be that QPF if it were snow. It is why you can get 3 inches of rain per hour but not 30 inches of snow per hour. It doesn’t work like that.

It just filled in now.... strange the data is now all there.

I checked the raw data file, it seems the data simply stopped transmitting and is missing. I wonder if maybe they ran into some instrumentation issues/communication issues?

Looks like reconnaissance on Lee will begin tomorrow 07/2330z.

I was hoping it would be a little bit snowier than Geneva in the Finger Lakes region of NY. I am a skier so I am hoping for enough snow for that! I did hear there are many great ski resorts near where I am.

Just moved to Plymouth NH to start my masters degree. Anyone around there that can give me a sense of the winters up here?

Near S concord road and Brinton lake road

Not that it matters that much but Icon just made a step toward the gfs camp.

The critical features to observe that have a domino effect to the rest of the run are only 3-4 days out but your point is valid.

Spoiler: It won't be as a good as the gfs.

The good news is the differences between the favorable solutions and unfavorable solutions GFS and CMC respectively can be traced back to the shortwave over Alaska at 54 hours. Meaning this model "war" should end relatively soon. One should cave "soon"

It really does seem like the PNA getting that right is one of the most important ingredients.

Geneva actually getting lake effect snow? What is this!!!

I would also like an invite

would you rather have 40 inches of rain in Tampa or a 8-12 foot storm surge into Tampa Bay?

Does best track have the current strength and pressure m?

Don’t think it is. A post tropical cat 3 equivalent is unheard of. Definitely still a warm core present.

kinda looks like cold air damming.

You going to the storm conference in Burlington?

My car is shit in the snow. The smallest amount on the roads and I am sliding like crazy. As long at the storm ends before I plan on hitting the road to drive(around 4PM on Saturday), I should be fine. Obviously I would love to ski in powder, just wish the timing of the storm was better.

reverse psy....**** is it working?

Let's smoke cirrus that would be nice. Seriously I do love snow but i am all but snowed out.