DownpourDave

Latest metar for MHT METAR KMHT 231153Z COR 05004KT 1SM R35/P6000FT -SN BR FEW008 OVC021 M01/M03 A3018 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/4 SLP237 P0009 60038 70038 T10111033 11006 21011 58004

I honestly couldn’t find the warm layer. 850s and 925 below freezing from where radar says the sleet line is. Using cc as the sleet line, NAM is a touch too far north and HRRR is a touch too far south.

Do you think the NAM is right with the mid level warm surge. Now casting says the depiction is full of shit. Current 850s NAM 850s

No it is not. At least 850 temperatures.

I personally think 8-12 is a good guess along with a wintery mix with maybe a flip back to snow at the end. If it verified a little colder aloft, those higher totals that the models are spitting are very well might verify.

RGEM shows a Waterville Valley Jackpot. I might decide to ski Cannon on Sunday.

Lourdes did not leave, she was promoted to Provost. If you want I can say “someone from x class year” says hello if you’re not comfortable giving your name but are comfortable sharing what class year you were. Do you know Scott Reynolds who works at the CWSU in Nashua, NH? He teaches at Plymouth. I mention him because he’s one of my favorite professors there, him along with Dr. Sam Miller.

Can anyone guess when the precip started?

Anything specific I should say so that they know who the “hello” is from? I am guessing you were before Prof. Eric Kelsey’s time.

Pasty 1-2 inches here near Plymouth. Can confirm 93 is not great.

Most of the snow will be occurring at night so that will help with accumulations. This is probably a more realistic map.

Respectfully, you are wrong. CAD has a tendency of being under estimated by the models.

Surprised no one mentioned that the whites look to do well this weekend. CAD setup suggested by many of the models. You might even get some snow dendrite this weekend. At the very least the ski resorts like Waterville Valley and Cannon will replenish some of what they lost. Thermal profiles suggests the snow will be of the heavy wet variety so definitely will not be skiing on powder on Monday.

@NorthArlington101 pm please not sure if you got a notification for it

Also, The historic 09-10 winter, 2016 one storm wonder, and the winters you mentioned all had neutral to positive PDO at times. That is one of the main differences between 09-10 and now (the PDO). We do not actually know if that historic winter would have worked with a strongly negative PDO. @psuhoffman

in the grand scheme of things, 2016 was not that long ago. Have we warmed that much since 2016/reached a tipping point? Maybe the Tonga eruption was a factor in having us go past the tipping point?

maybe this is a dumb question, was the max storage increased to 50 mb recently?

Could it be that the SSW was a reflection type so it ruined the blocking pattern? Pulled directly from the paper Cite: Kodera et al, 2015 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD023359 What are your thoughts? Just thought I would try and search for an answer looking at past research. Edit: There is obviously a lot to this paper but what I got was that not all SSWs necessarily lead to a blocking pattern (-NAO/-AO)

I might decide to do my thesis on it. Any suggestions for a title? Half kidding but I really might.

Have any of the mets here done Pathways? Going to go for it with several Student Trainee Positions opening up in Meteorology(https://www.usajobs.gov/Search/Results?j=1399). I know they accept undergraduates as well but I am hopeful I have a shot as a graduate student.

Copied from a post I made on a different site: Okay I identified these two areas as important. The shortwave over BC, and the TPV. You want the TPV further east and that shortwave a little more amplified and orientated more North to South. In terms of the shortwave over BC the 12z euro is an improvement over the 6z gfs but not as good as the 12z gfs. The reason why the 12z euro looks bad is because of the less favorable TPV position. I will be paying close attention to the position of the TPV over the next few runs as well as seeing how much that vort coming in from the Pacific is able to amplify and have a more favorable orientation

@psuhoffman I see almost nothing wrong with this map. PNA in a perfect spot, semblance of a 50/50, almost as good as a “look” can get. Even has that trough over Alaska which you typically see before a big snowstorm for the EC.

With a -3 or -4 sigma NAO don’t you need a -PNA anyways, like a +PNA wouldn’t work, again long range and analyzing teles are not my strong suite.

Obviously it’s past the deadline but I might post a late entry just for fun later today.