Paleocene

Side note, if you like tracking JV models, the RGEM is running now and is out to hour 48 on pivotal (free): https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022011312&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype&m=rdps (it's called RDPS on there)

Bit chilly sunday AM on the NAM eh?

This bad boy (circled in blue)? It seems to have strengthened 00z - 06z - 12z

The pivotal free site does seem to spit out the 3 hour intervals slightly before TT gets the next six hour interval.

I'll be happy if it snows with WAA as projected late sunday afternoon --> evening before the changeover once it's dark. Waking up to a slush/melted mess on Monday would be lame, but can't win em all, especially inside the beltway

Agreed, but panels like this bring a bit of gloom for me - especially if it's dumping rain at this hour. Agree, in the metro areas, we hope for dryslot

CWG has a post up on the potential storm with Wes as a co-author: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/01/11/dc-snow-chances-cold-pattern/

expectations any time the models show anything even resembling a major storm =

974mb low directly over NYC 24 hour QPF panel (it's out of DMV by this time). This thing brings the juice

Surface freezing line basically parallels 95 at hour 138 (06z mon)

Heavy snow in ATL at 120 hours.

Uppercut punch of heavy rain with a 990 low over basically Fredericksburg at hour 138, 6z monday.

This look like a full bazinga to me...

boom

love the new prof image. really digging deep with that one

BrooklynWX: "There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms. There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past. Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. " Vice-Regent: "BIG STORM MAKE ATMOSPHERE HOT AND WET, NO SNOW SORRY" Who you gonna believe?

.2 of frozen fluff would be basically better than the entirety of 20-21 winter for MBY, so I'll be happy.

Missed today's storm (still visiting in laws in Maine) but driving home to Silver Spring tomorrow. And probably 6 inches of frozen goodness on my shaded driveway :-D. To think, I semi-purposefully scheduled this in-law trip to see snow over the holidays, and where we are in Maine got basically a trace since the 26th while Jebman's old spot in Dale City got a freaking foot. Love it! If we get snow on snow Thurs/Fri, I will bow down to the snow gods and be a weenie forever. Will greatly make up for the 2019-2021 snow drought in the close-to-dc area.

Put your location in your profile Dawg

I'm in Maine visiting the in laws on the coast since just after Xmas (downeast, north of bar harbor). It's been quite warm and there's no snow cover! Almost hit 50 yesterday. Gulf of Maine was warmest on record this past warm season. Gonna miss the snow in the metro area tomorrow, but we may get an inch or two this evening up here.

Christmas eve - lock in the KU for early Jan!

I had a hosta sprout a leaf in my backyard! lolz

100% guarantee that this won't happen!

i'm going to Maine around new years and Ithaca in mid-january, I'll fedex some flakes back. JK it won't snow there either

This thread reminds me that I went to the OBX after christmas last year and sat on the beach in a tshirt on either the 26th or 27th. Boiling the oceans FTW