Paleocene

For illustrative purposes, check out this site. It lets you paint areas below a given elevation above mean sea level as blue. https://www.floodmap.net/?ct=US. it's not perfect but close enough for a zoomed out view. Here's our (inner) region if sea levels were 100 meters higher. Note how 95 in Maryland between DC and Baltimore basically traces that 100m contour. If you're below 100m, you're gonna have a soggy time tomorrow

I don't have the hi-res maps, but it seems like cold air should be in place somewhat before that low pops off the coast.

41/20 inside the beltway near downtown silver spring.

Yeah, let's wait for the EPS before we throw in the towel based on a day 10 euro op map.

lol, mappy's is trees in snow, mine is a summer sailboat edward hopper painting called "ground swell" . petition to make avatars larger so we can see them better!

it holds frozen through 13z in and around DC. not bad? with that kind of forecast, definitely a 2 hour delay + situation for MD counties.

I learned last year that in these marginal setups, these positive snow depth change maps almost never verify for MBY. But hey, we'll get on the board in some way maybe?

The day when I get accumulating ZR inside the beltway and you don't in Gaithersburg will be an interesting day.

Yes, for MBY, this one has "hey a bit of sleet on the grass, my trees look kind of icy! but the roads are wet, and those look like raindrops, and its 34 degrees... oh moco schools are cancelled? cool i guess" written all over it. But i'll hold out for a pleasant crunchy icey surprise

Lol

Take it and run! (most/all of this will be washed away by rain, but potential for an icy/slushy/snowy start is clear)

Yes. I was in TP at that time and we were quite warm and drippy while folks NW (not even that far NW) partied. As others noted though, that was a great winter so I was able to deal. Especially after the March overperformers that came a few weeks later.

Euro op run disagrees with GFS on the CAD at 120H.

Legit (and seemingly deepening) CAD poking down into NC

the only time of year that someone won't come in and say something about the sun angle! but seriously, for folks like me inside the beltway, the UHI is murder and our streets rarely ever cool off for a lot of snow to stick, except for sustained 29F and below snow events. And when there has been sustained cold prior to the storm.

Going to be in beautiful Harrisburg, PA visiting relatives for Thanksgiving this year. Time to track obsessively! Looks like this one could hit the interior, but, 9 days out and all that.

I would listen in and keep my mouth shut for a big threat.

The NYT just posted this graphic, not sure if it's paywalled, but it's good: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/29/us/hurricane-ian-flooding-fort-myers-florida.html

It's too humid here in Silver Spring but I do have to say that all of the rain has left my little corner of the region looking extremely green. Flowers everywhere, none of the usual midsummer burnout. Crape myrtle trees look great this year

South of you in silver spring (near downtown), and I saw multiple cloud to ground bolts to the north. All were quite bright and loud. We did not lose power

The pepco outage map is still pretty bad for that area, including College Park, Berwyn Heights, etc. Good luck to you +your dad! good article with pics from UMD student newspaper: https://dbknews.com/2022/07/13/umd-college-park-storm-prince-georges-county/ Pics in article are from the route 1 corridor.

Escaped the worst of it in east silver spring, neighbors a block away had this large split at the base and topple onto some smaller trees. Missed their house though. Otherwise not much damage in the immediate vicinity. We lost power for about 15 minutes after the line passed through. Seems like the line strengthened as it headed east toward PGC, the pepco outage map is really lit up in the NE quadrant of the beltway - Hyattsville, College Park, Greenbelt, and neighboring towns.

I was in Falls Church near the west falls church metro at the time. Like @nj2va, I remember an unbelievable amount of blue flashes in the sky from both lightning and blowing transformers. It was honestly hard to tell the difference. The sky was an absolutely surreal dark purple/black color. There were trees down across the neighborhood and our house lost power for about 36 hours. It was hotter than heck, so I abandoned ship and went to my parents in PA for the weekend the following morning, as it became clear we weren't getting power back anytime soon. Some folks in my office, particularly those served by PEPCO in the bethesda/chevy chase, silver spring, and takoma park areas were out of power for 5-10 days.

That was me earlier this month. So much for 'mild symptoms' eh? But agreed, would like to see the sun here...

Beautiful morning here in Silver Spring. This weather makes me miss the cicadas :-( Good news for fellow long-range weenies , the EPS (euro ensemble) plots on tropical tidbits have been significantly expanded. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2022051700&fh=276 Wayyy more options and temporal resolution now. Can't wait to hallucinate upcoming blizzards with more ensemble detail.