Paleocene

Butting in; we do not maintain a semblance of happiness and we are all depressed. Our forum has been mostly a complete disaster since the "epic pattern" and "brutal cold" before christmas produced light flurries and high temps in the high 20s. But then we get a KU every 7 years and we're ok. 0.0" for the year

Eh the primary (which cuts) dies in ohio then redevelops off southern NE but why am i dissecting a 240 op run of the GEM

Alright, so we've got suppression train on the GFS, a monster cutter on GEM. So what will the euro do? split the difference?

Still have another low hanging out down there at 180 hours, though? Edit: also suppressed

This thread needs bump. Euro has been spitting out some great D10 storms this year.

Euro still aggressive with the cold D8-10. But where's the juice?

yeah its squashed for quite a while but i think we still get blued

This may be one of the better <240 hour runs weve had so far this digital winter coming up! Loving the position of the high at 200 hours

White rain in Silver Spring

The air outside this morning in my urban heat island eternal firestorm zone has that "almost snow" sense to it. Hoping y'all NW can at least see a few flakes while I rain. Godspeed. 39/29

Normally I disagree with your (or anyone's) pessimism but as we near february and we keep can-kicking past 240 I have to agree. I think I need to take a couple days off and see if we're still "in it" by the weekend. But I won't.

For the memes

digital blue at happy hour! sick

Nam'd a bit on latest run. Flips to rain.

Canadian ensemble also has a half decent cold push around that time frame. I don't know (not an expert) if any of teh other ensembles/ops go past 240? meanwhile euro not bad with the front end thump mid week for northern forum:

If this map comes anywhere CLOSE to verifying and we don't get at least an inch of snow inside the beltway by feb 10th, I'm throwing in the towel. We've got the modeled cold finally

worth noting that euro had the low about 100 miles south in central tennessee at 00z last night, for the same time next weds. headed towards GFS steeper cut solution but maybe we're getting better confluence/colder air

I noticed daffodils sprouting all over the place last week/this week. Snowdrops gonna bloom soon... crocuses before we know it.

I did notice it looks consistently colder north of us after about hour 200, which has been lacking all winter. Montreal has been raining. But I'm sure the little wave D10-11 that runs through the lakes will trend stronger into a massive cutter and pull too much warm in air front of it, so the potential threat that rides the boundary after 300H doesnt have enough cold :-D

Forget next week and come live in digital blue fantasyland with me! Where it always snows!

Yes, I agree, those boom winters happened during our much hotter base state too. Sure, the atmosphere and the oceans have warmed more since 2016, and emissions are rocketing upward, but that doesn't change that we have these recent boom years. They may repeat, or they may not. TBD. Our average annual snowfall is decreasing. Our average annual temperatures are increasing. The chance of a boom snow year (and individual boom storms) have slightly increased; this slight increase is not enough to make up for our loss of average/marginal events. End result = less average snow over time

I hold out hope for this too (and sometimes wonder if CC contributed to 09-10). But aren't we moving away from that becoming more likely? CC may increase the probability of a boom winter, but doesn't it also decrease the probability of that happening sequentially? This is why I wish we had a bigger than 130 year dataset for annual snowfall. We have had warm periods before. How anomalous is this one? I bought myself a fancy north face parka-style jacket last year when it went on clearance. I've worn it on about 3 days this winter during the around xmas cold snap. otherwise i've worn it in Maine, and in upstate NY lol. It will continue to live in the closet. At least it won't wear out fast...right?

Agreed 100% -- the euro prior to 132 hours almost cues up jaws music in my head. This will keep me in the game but I am mindful of how the euro had a more positive depiction (than GFS) of the pre-christmas arctic front storm deal at one week out. GFS won

Seasonal trend has been for these lows to cut NW as we get closer to game time, and not get pushed south. I'll hold out hope for a wiggle S/E so I can get a couple inches of front end like the January storm last year before it flopped to rain in the metros

Euro doesn't cut as strong as the GFS with the mid-week deal next week. Maybe some front end? Marginal temps. Stronger high in quebec but mid level winds out of the toasty south over our region. Let's pray for stronger CAD and a further SE track