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Everything posted by mattb65

  1. Don't worry, we've got your snow in Hawaii. .BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-040215- /O.CON.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 311 AM HST Fri Dec 3 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.
  2. It's a little bit of a crap shoot when a big storm is going to blow up and send a swell but usually late Dec, Jan and Feb are prime. Last year late December had a 20 ft, 20 sec swell with waves completely closing out in Waimea Bay which doesn't happen often, and usually requires 40 ft+ faces. There were surfers paddling and towing in which I can't imagine. Haleiwa is a great town, really laid back. BTW, the storm sending the waves this weekend also triggered the first winter storm watch of the season for the big island but not the first snow. Current forecast is for up to 4 inches with SW winds of 50-80 G100 at the peaks of the big volcanos.
  3. @Ginx snewx i can tell from some of your posts that you love big waves, if you've never done it before you should book a trip to Hawaii in the winter for a big swell, there's almost nothing like it. I live next to this beach, expecting 25 ft bombs with light offshore winds https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Pyramid-Rock/forecasts/latest
  4. I think there's something messed up with the extrapolated pressure. Not just being a weenie. The dropsonde from the last pass measured 936 mb with 13 kt wind (extrap was around 945). There is no way the pressure has risen given the increased wind measured on this pass and satellite appearance to my eyes showing continued improvements.
  5. I've never seen a dropsonde pressure this much lower than the extrap. Is this legit? 935 mb on the dropsonde vs 945ish extrap. On TT it shows 952 mb as the pressure on the map but the dropsonde is the one below, I'm confused...
  6. HWRF, HMON and GFS hurricane models all show pressure drops right up until landfall. Given how it looks now, unless the pace of intensification levels off, this will be right on the edge of CAT 5 strength at landfall.
  7. I'm done, just barely going to miss 10k, there's not much more that the high vaccination states can drop and the delta variant and sunbelt seasonality changes are going to do their thing. I'll bow out for the next couple months.
  8. If and when novavax gets approved in the US, I think it'll be the best fit for you based on everything you've posted. This is a really well written article about it. https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/619276/
  9. If anyone is trying to use scare tactics to get people vaccinated at this point then they are a fool. The people who haven't been vaccinated yet are either hardcore against vaccination and fully bought in to some form of false information that is immovable and not worth investing time to discuss, or they are skeptical and have outstanding questions on the safety and efficacy. The significant number of skeptical people who have reasonable worries that the vaccines were discovered and tested in record time and are still under EUA instead of full approval. I think presenting the facts may be helpful for these individuals. The data doesn't need any editorializing, it speaks for itself. Your point about virus prevalence is fair, but prevalence will constantly change and is influenced by the local circumstances. There are a lot of communities with vaccine rates less than 40% where any vaccine introduction of these more transmissible variants will lead to a localized high risk situation often without warning. We are in the seasonal low point for the virus, it'll start rising again as we go into fall.
  10. There seem to be regular headlines stating that the overwhelming number of new covid hospitalizations are unvaccinated individuals. The specific numbers should be reported, every day. Just like they report the number of cases daily for the past year, it should be. 1. Number of new cases if possible report fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated and unvaccinated as sub-groups of the new cases 2. Number of new hospitalizations including the number fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated and the number unvaccinated 3. New deaths - fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated and unvaccinated The CDC is gathering this data but it's voluntarily reported so not exactly a full picture - more for surveillance purposes to identify if there's a cluster that might indicate a concerning new variant - https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html The hard data may be powerful enough to move some skeptics across the line to finally choose to protect themselves. I'm not sure if this data is being collected at scale though.
  11. The 7 day is down to 11,158 on worldometers which I think is partially from reporting changes, partially because this weekend became a partial holiday weekend from Juneteenth. If lawyer Craig updated today in pretty sure it would be sub 10k, I'll just have to settle for my celebration this Friday while I'll be on vacation in Maui, watching the sunset and drinking a Mai Tai.
  12. Considering it's the Bills, what I could see happening is that they have another dominating regular season, their team looks great so long as everyone stays healthy. Then come playoff time a covid outbreak sidelines all the anti vax players and they get knocked out. Not sure if this would embolden the antivaxxers because of "discrimination" or if it would be a wake up call that choices have consequences. Considering that Beasley would rather retire than get vaccinated, I'm pretty sure most will choose the former.
  13. Choosing to retire from the NFL and forgo millions of dollars rather than get a vaccine, this is the hill and issue Cole Beasley wants to plant his flag on, what a world we live in... https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/19/us/cole-beasley-nfl-retire-covid-vaccine/index.html
  14. 10,938 - if he was doing daily updates we'd probably dip below 10k on Monday or Tuesday next week. It's down to 12,639 today on Worldometers so a rough estimate on the 50 states would be to subtract 1500-1700 from worldometers. Average vaccinations have also bounced up quite a bit in the last couple weeks too, probably not enough to get to 70% by July 4th but it'll be close. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ Daily average up to 1.36 mil from 936k 2 weeks ago.
  15. I thought we'd get to 10k by tomorrow but looks like it'll probably be some time next week because it looks like the pace of the decline has leveled off in some areas. Without the daily twitter updates and with the holiday lag it's hard to tell for sure. The lawyer craig weekly numbers will come out tomorrow and I think they'll probably be 11k-12k. Worldometers is down below 13k for the first time so we're still gradually getting there... As you mentioned it doesn't decline linearly, it follows exponential decay or half lives. 50% decline from 30K is lot - down by 15k but 50% of 15k is only 7.5k and then 3.75k so it'll naturally level off at some point.
  16. It's unbelievable that the person chose to ruin his life and another person's life over something so trivial. Incredibly sad. It's like these road rage incidents, these people must have barely any control over their emotions or feel nearly no value in their own life and in others' lives.
  17. The more transmissible variants will always eventually become the dominant strain, it's just a matter of time. That's just evolutionary biology, the hand wringing about each variant is a little tiresome for me tbh. More a question of how much of an impact it'll have which depends on the level of immunity present. We probably have more than 60% population immunity from vax and prior infection in most places which will significantly keep things contained.
  18. We'll see, I think the hospital is gong to win this one, the law is on their side. In first federal ruling on vaccine mandates, judge sides with Houston hospital, dismissing claims from staff resisters https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/7672997002
  19. Vaccine mandates are coming. I'm curious how this will resolve itself especially with the Texas governor putting in place policies that effectively enable anti-vax individuals. 178 health care workers suspended from Houston Methodist hospital system for refusing COVID-19 vaccination https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/7616446002 Important to note that this is 178 out of 25,000 employees.
  20. If rather not take my chances. Risk is lower for young healthy people obviously but the vaccine risk is basically nil. So when it comes to deciding on getting the vaccine vs even a miniscule risk of ED or all the other bad things covid can do, it's a no brainer for me.
  21. Did you know that covid infection has been associated with an increased risk of erectile dysfunction? Still rather test your luck by not getting the vaccine? "Just a few days of sniffles"... and a floppy https://health.clevelandclinic.org/yes-covid-19-can-cause-erectile-dysfunction/
  22. See, the 10k bet wouldn't matter, I knew the thread would die this summer. No doubt in my mind we go sub 10k by July 1, only question is will the thread still be open.
  23. He's the kind of person that needs a lottery ticket or similar incentive, completely unable to parse out the relative risks and benefits involved. Also no consideration for others, even if he individually may be low risk, getting the vaccine so that be doesn't accidentally pass it on to someone else doesn't appear to be in the equation. If nothing else jonger, please get vaccinated so that I can get a free beer on July 4th.
  24. I'm not entirely sure I understand your first concern. He seemed to be pretty cautious throughout the crisis about how easily it can be spread. There were lots of debates and confusion about symptomatic vs asymptomatic spread early on and persisting through most of 2020. He admitted publicly multiple times that this virus ended up being far worse than he initially expected. There is tons of asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread of this virus, it's one of the big challenges in containing it. On the second point, he still thinks it's more likely animal to human. I can understand the frustration especially since the lab origin was heavily politicized. There was a scientific push possibly with some questionable motives to push the animal to human origin. You can see some suspicious stuff in the links I posted. I'm still not convinced, I'm also not sure if fauci is the one to blame and think the conservative media frenzy on the emails is a huge overreaction.
  25. I'm not going to argue that obesity is a risk factor for bad outcomes in covid but your presentation of the data here is ridiculous and not even close to factual. 1. Your top 10 deaths are not ranked per capita as you claim look at India 12 per 100k vs US 170 per 100k. 2. Your top 10 most obese countries has no source, where are you pulling that list from? The rate of obesity in India is 3.90% how are they 3rd on your list????? They are among the least obese countries in the world on a per capita basis. https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-obese-countries Edit: in fact many of the most obese countries in the world - Samoa and Marshall islands had no covid cases. In terms if large non island nations that are most obese per capita. From worldometers US #1 with 36% obese is 18th in covid deaths per capita Saudi Arabia #2 with 35% obese is 111th in covid deaths per capita Turkey #3 with 32% obese is 74th in covid deaths per capita Egypt #4 with 32% obese is 124th in covid deaths per capita I could go on but you get the point. This looks like a huge #JongerFail
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