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mattb65

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Everything posted by mattb65

  1. The graph shows a dashed line continuing to 80% in May. It's just a graphical form of what they posted. No one said 80% are vaccinated, they projected current rates out in time just like the graph does. 60-70% immunized may be a sufficient amount to achieve herd immunity, we don't know. They posted their opinions, why do you have to be thought police by calling it misinformation. You're too much...
  2. tHiS iS mIsInFoRmaTiOn11!!!11!
  3. I've read their posts for months and disagree that those individuals are propagandists. I don't always agree with their opinions but both offer good faith discussions. I haven't seen either purposefully mislead or spread misinformation. The premise of the posts you had a problem with was correct, that's why I responded. You claimed it is misinformation, I had a proven with that. If you read what they said in context they were writing about rates of adults getting vaccinated. We are a lot closer to things being "normal" than you're willing to acknowledge.
  4. He claimed if the current rate of vaccinations continues that we will reach 80% of adults in about 1.5 months which is correct plotting a linear graph from where we are now per the CDC with a daily rate of 3.1 million shots per day. Do you have trouble with reading comprehension and algebra? y = mx + b You could argue instead that current rates aren't likely to continue but instead you said it's "false information".
  5. They literally posted data from the CDC... we don't have a long ways to go, a couple more months isn't that long. This model has been remarkably accurate to include predicting the plateau/rise in cases over the past 6 weeks - months before it happened. It predicts cases droping dramatically through May and June where June 1st has 33k cases total on June 1 and less than 10k by July 1 - that's total cases not positive tests. At that level and with the majority of high risk people vaccinated, I would bet that the daily death rate will be less than 100. If we have infections and deaths at that low of a level and >60% of adults vaccinated then we will be in a great position to have almost all of the restrictions lifted. If that isn't good enough then nothing will. Source - https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/ In addition to the infection levels getting to such low levels there is also the rational argument that once everyone who wants the vaccine will have had a chance to get it. Once that happens, there's no good argument for restrictions imo.
  6. Give it a rest they are spreading factual information and you are getting hung up on very minor minutia. If vaccine rates continue at their current pace the timelines posted are accurate that we will have a critical mass of people vaccinated by late May with first shots and full vaccination a month later. As was posted the econd shot only provides modest additional benefit. Look at the UK to see how well their first shot strategy is working. I think the bigger concern is that vaccine rates are unlikely to continue at this pace due to reduced demand from people that are actually buying into false information.
  7. Not that much for a couple reasons. 1. 32.5% is a relative risk reduction - aka if the death rate is 1% in the control group then the death rate in the treatment group would be 0.68%. In other words the absolute risk reduction would be 0.32% so 0.32% of people would be saved by this intervention. Relative risk reduction is often publicized by it may exaggerate the benefit, I always try to calculate the absolute risk reduction when deciding how beneficial something is. 2. This is an observational study and subject to confounding bias. Maybe more young people than old people are prescribed zyrtec or other h1 blockers because seasonal allergies don't affect older people as much as younger people. That's why the authors say that prospective controlled trials are needed. These type of observational trials can be helpful to provide a signal that an intervention might be beneficial but the prospective trial to try and account for any confounding variables is needed to prove it.
  8. If I recall correctly, you caught covid about a year ago, right? If you've had the virus before, the vaccine hits you harder. You'll both be fine by tomorrow. Take a Tylenol.
  9. If my appeal to common sense and anecdotes didn't have any effect (seems like anecdotes are better than data on the internet) How about you consider some evidence from observational studies. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768533 How about the data in the non hospital setting? https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536 It is admittedly hard to study this stuff because it's all observational which means there will always be significant confounding variables and messy data. But in this case common sense and the data are both lining up and showing the same thing. Masks aren't a panacea but they are an effective tool in reducing transmission when worn properly and in the right circumstances where risk of spread is high.
  10. If you can't understand why wearing a mask properly for a respiratory pathogen helps to prevent infection then I don't think there's much help for you. Would you go into a known heavily infected person's room without a high quality mask? I sure as hell wouldnt. How do you explain how the many physicians and nurses treating highly infected covid patients not getting infected? The masks cause people to get weakened immune systems and cause them to get covid, that's your claim, right? Once we got proper ppe protocols in hospitals, providers stopped getting covid, why is that?
  11. Except for rare circumstances, anyone can choose to get vaccinated. Comparing this to something like the ugly history of segregation which has been based on innate qualities most commonly race is a pretty terrible false equivalency. There was also no rational basis to segregate people based on things like race or gender in the past. There is a very clearly rational basis to give vaccinated individuals different treatment compared to unvaccinated people given the current circumstances. If a business suffers because of giving preferential treatment to those vaccinated then the free market will sort things out, isn't that what most conservatives preach? Also in terms of moving the country forward, we do so by crushing the pandemic, the best way to do that is by everyone that is able getting vaccinated.
  12. I'm surprised that you're so in favor of this sort of government overreach. Sure the state government can stay out of requiring vaccine passports but why push their agenda on private businesses?
  13. Why is hawaii real estate exploding, how about new jersey, new York, I could go on. Your nonsense post deserved a nonsense response. It's a blatant strawman exaggeration. It's the second day in a row you've made ridiculous posts. You present a hyperpartisan perspective, try better.
  14. No, we just need to create giant colonies like leper colonies for the people that subscribe to anti vaccine fauci bill gates 5g nanochip conspiracy theories. Even better we can send them all to Florida and put them on giant carnival cruise ships. That way Gov DeSantis will be happy. What do you think? The rest of us will all get our vaccines and get on with life.
  15. This is a great story about oneof the scientists that was instrumental in the development of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/health/coronavirus-mrna-kariko.html#click=https://t.co/N6BYZGqyD0 For all the kids cheating their way through school, hopefully there are a handful like Dr. Kariko that fall in love with learning and discovery.
  16. I don't know about anyone else but my social media has had a noticeable increase in people getting their vaccines over the past week. The vaccination trends for the next few weeks will be pretty telling in terms of how much vaccine hesitancy is going to be an issue. If we continue to see 7 day averages pushing over 3 million shots a day or higher then we're going to have no problems with having enough people vaccinated or immune from infection to reach herd immunity levels. If it levels off or starts going down I'll be concerned. In addition, I am feeling confident that nationwide we are probably approaching a peak in the current plateau in cases and that the rate of rise in Michigan is slowing down and will hopefully start to turn in the other direction in the next week or two. I attribute these changes to the states reachng a critical mass of 30-40% immunized which is enough to cause cases to decline given the current precautions people are still doing. Just my view after looking at the data and trends, I could definitely be wrong.
  17. It's not a question of whether I agree or disagree, if he wants to do these activities, those are the current requirements. My observation had been that even though I'm in hawaii where it is always humid and rarely gets below 70, the mask does not get significantly affected by sweat or ruined by use in those activities. The WHO is probably overstating the risk of masks during normal levels of physical exertion. The only masks that have had a noticeable affect on my breathing are when I've had to wear a medical grade n95 to see patients with covid.
  18. My 1st grade aged son has been going to in person school all year and wears a mask the whole day except for lunch including during PE. I wouldn't have a problem with him doing sports even if they required masks. He has adapted to wearing it no problem and the school as a whole has successfully navigated >3/4th of the school year without any infections. He's done cub scouts and has needed to wear masks on a hike and during recreational activity like biking during scouts. We've had him doing swim lessons without any masks for obvious reasons. Staying physically and socially active even with the potential covid risks and even with having to wear masks when doing those activities provides way more benefits to his well being than not doing them in my opinion. Generally speaking, hawaii has had a much lower level of covid than almost anywhere in the US, if it was more widespread I might have needed to adjust the activities somewhat.
  19. At least in the last few pages you only wrote about contaminated masks so I'll give you that, obviously anyone wearing a contaminated or visibly dirty mask probably has more things than covid to worry about. Most of the anti mask crazies (not you) wildly exaggerate the risk of causing bacterial pneumonia or other infections or blocking air flow or other similar misinformation. The gist of the conversation seemed to be drifting towards that anti mask nonsense but I want to be fair that you aren't making those claims.
  20. The article you posted did not say that wearing a mask increases the risk of infection, it claimed. 1. Masks can cause acne "mascne" especially if you use fabric softener. 2. Mask wearing may promote mouth breathing which may lead to dry mouth, bad breath and tooth decay (this all seems like a stretch to me) 3. If people fail to wash their hands after frequently adjusting their masks, maybe they could increase their infection risk. So the article recommends using the elastics to remove the mask. So no, the article you posted did not provide evidence to support your position.
  21. You are claiming that there is a well documented link between masks and causing/increasing infections as if it is common sense then refusing to provide evidence of the claim is pretty telling. It's just like yesterday when the claim was made that Florida fudged their covid data while simultaneously refusing to put forward any evidence to support the position. You have frequently called people out for using this sort of tactic. I think it's pretty obvious that any "evidence " you could come up with to suggest that masks cause infections would either be extremely low quality evidence e.g. anecdotes or some forum of anti mask conspiracy nonsense.
  22. It's remarkable how predictable the top 3 or 4 culture war or other related crisis du jour people bring up when they are expressing their outrages at their fellow Americans these days. Often based on the chryron from where one consumes their news. (This is a criticism of anyone hyperpartisan spare me the victimhood/persecution narrative) Please keep those things out of this thread unless there is a clear and compelling link to coronavirus. All those things do is inflame, divide and put people further into their tribes.
  23. I appreciate the diversity of opinion and background in the vaccine discussion and my opinion is that no one is expressing their views entirely in bad faith as a full blown troll trying to get a rise out of someone. There are some that most certainly do this sometimes. I wanted to share a really thorough Twitter thread from a reputable source that discusses a lot of what is at stake for people choosing to get vaccinated or not vaccinated. Some of it is a review on herd immunity thresholds. In particular, I think this part of the thread is applicable to assume if the discussion about whether a low risk individual choosing not to get vaccinated will have a larger impact.
  24. Well I said when everyone had a chance to get it. If people choose not to get it, they get to live with the consequences. At that point it becomes nanny state to impose unreasonable restrictions assuming the activity in question is reasonably safe. I think certain activities like going on a cruise could reasonably require anyone boarding to be vaccinated or have a negative test. Those things were like petri dishes for the virus when this thing started.
  25. In about 8 weeks once everyone has a chance to get their vaccines.
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