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Everything posted by mattb65

  1. Stopping transmission of the virus stops the mutations and reduces the chance for an escape variant. The vaccines stop transmission, this has been conclusively proven in the real world. You dont need to drag your knuckles here, human ingenuity has given us the tools to win this fight. Globally we're at 35 million vaccinations per day, we're 9 months away from 75% immunized globally. I agree life comes with risk but it's just plain stupidity to purposely increase risk when you have an easy way to mitigate the risk. My buddy James from New England caught covid a few weeks ago, he was 31 years old, he suffered overwhelming multi organ failure and died. He didn't have to die.
  2. Lawyer Craig on twitter but I bet worldometers will also go below 10k shortly afterwards
  3. I didn't think the 7 day average would be below 15k cases on June 2nd though I think some of that is an artifact of the holiday weekend. I bet it will stall for the next week and then dip below 10k the week of the 14th although I'd love to be wrong and have cases just continue to drop sharply.
  4. I haven't seen anything too concerning about his emails but may not be up to speed on everything. Having said that the lab leak concern is definitely increasing in likelihood based on the information I'm reading. Unfortunately I doubt there will be a smoking gun because much has been destroyed or covered up by China plus the soule to find reliable information is especially difficult. Here are some articles I've found to be interesting. https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-how-amateur-sleuths-broke-wuhan-lab-story-embarrassed-media-1596958 https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/
  5. Just like the flu except 3-4x more transmissible and 10x more lethal. Otherwise, same same. Good point Jonger.
  6. More of a reason to be resentful. Getting vaccinated is a much easier life change than changing from an unhealthy lifestyle to a healthy one. In the former you need to take a short amount of your day, endure a minor pain in the arm and maybe a couple days of feeling yucky. In the latter it's often an every day struggle and often comes with a lifetime of baggage for why someone has become unhealthy that needs to change.
  7. I'm pretty optimistic that we'll get below 5,000. It's obviously not going to be eradicated and I'm not sure how low we'll get, if I had to guess I think it will probably nadir somewhere around a 7 day average of 1,500-2,000 cases per day this summer and then rise a bit in late summer/early fall. I wonder when the case counts will stop being tracked on a regular basis.
  8. It's a little ironic, the vaccines work precisely because medical science has developed an understanding of the biology of the immune system and has found ways to utilize the immune system to protect against pathogens without having a person chance getting the full effects of the illnesses caused by the pathogens. These my immune system is great should think about how things were just 200 years ago when small pox, polio, measles and other deadly viruses were running rampant.
  9. Sub 10k 7 day average case count by July 1st is still on track. We are at just one 20k cases and continue to cut cases in half approximately every 3 weeks or faster. I'm thinking we go below 10k cases around June 18th.
  10. mattb65

    RIP James

    Gut wrenching, I feel so bad for his sister and their whole family.
  11. mattb65

    RIP James

    Just want to add my condolences, his posts were always a highlight when I lived in Boston, it didn't matter if it was a chance for something tropical or snow he was always optimistic to the bitter end and extremely enthusiastic for everyone even if he was stuck in the pouring rain while everyone else was getting buried. RIP James
  12. I don't doubt that some people get bell's palsy from the vaccine but it wouldn't be hours after the shot. One of my colleagues published a case of bell's most likely from the vaccine. Bell's palsy also isn't that rare so you have to compare to baseline rates. It's also a condition that usually recovers fully or nearly fully in most people.
  13. I'm a Neurologist, I diagnose and treat various forms of paralysis. I'll comment on the three reports in your post and then in general. First case on the left sounds like bell's palsy but it started immediately after getting the vaccine. There's no way the vaccine could have caused this, the pathophysiology of bell's palsy is such that an immediate bell's palsy within hours of vaccination would be caused by something else. Case 2 sounds like a classic panic attack/hyperventilation syndrome. Of the 3, the third one could be a vaccine reaction or it could be a stroke or a number of other things. So though you say there's 1348, the ones you posted screenshots of are not generally what people think of when they think paralysis, most think unable to walk like after a major spinal cord injury not facial droop or panic attack. Of the 1348 there's going to be a very small percent that are concerning levels of paralysis and most are probably not vaccine related. There's only a handful of vaccine related reactions that cause paralysis, things like myelitis, stroke or guillain bare and there hasn't been an explosion of these despite hundreds of millions of doses administered.
  14. I'm shocked that he hasn't provided any updates.
  15. Sorry to hear that, has your associates co-worker shared any additional information about what caused them to get paralyzed? Did they have a stroke, spinal cord injury, something else? How do they know it's permanent?
  16. You would need to see more information before making this sort of determination including is there a difference between the groups in the titer levels (multiple studies have shown that high titers matter in preventing infection and severe illness) and what are the titers at 6 months and 12 months in each group. There was a lot of discussion early on when shots were in short supply to give one shot and delay the second because the first shot gives a lot of protection. This should continue to be studied when considering how best to immunize globally.
  17. Down below 30,000 on the 7 day average, we are experiencing exponential decay, the halving is happening about once every 3 weeks right now, if the rate of decay remains constant, we'll be below 10,000 on the 7 day average in ~5 weeks, approximately June 22nd. That would be cutting it closer than I'd like for my bet. Hopefully the declines gain more momentum.
  18. Glad the unvaccinated folks are being so responsible and considerate. /s I bet if you could anonymously poll, the vast majority of those 25% are vaccinated and just generally cautious/anxious about covid. I'm looking forward to the governor here giving businesses the option to set their own policies on masks. We have over 70% of adults and 60% total with their first doses, our governor is saying he wants to wait until we have herd immunity to lift mask mandates but doesn't say the number he wants. I wish he would at least just pick a date or number or something like most other states are doing.
  19. In just one month average daily cases dropped from ~66,000, to ~34,000 and this has happened with people being much more sociable and active even in states with relatively lower levels of vaccination. The seasonal effects to suppress spread of the infection are very powerful this time of year and when you thrown on top of that strong negative pressure from 55-60% of the population having immunity from prior infection and vaccination - you get big time infection decay. It's perfectly logical why the CDC has decided now is the time to say ditch the masks if you've been vaccinated. I'm going off of Lawyer Craig's numbers which I believe only include the 50 states and DC - they are often different from worldometers which includes puerto rico and other territories. On Worldo it's at 36,650 down from 72,300. No signs that the decline is slowing down yet, if anything the decline has been gaining steam. Sadly the lame Hawaii governor decided to keep in place the mask mandate including outdoors because he says there's no way to tell who is vaccinated or not. Really mind boggling - we are in the top 3 in rates of vaccination and top 3 lowest per capita case rate right now and he is not ready to implement CDC guidance. He's worried about people being able to tell who is vaccinated or not, at this point, why does it matter? Over 59% of the entire population and over 70% of adults in Hawaii have gotten their 1st dose. Vaccines are widely available at no cost to anyone that want it. Sure, young children can't be vaccinated yet but follow the science here they don't get any more sick than they do from the hundreds/thousands of viruses they get exposed to all the time, ugh. This is the kind of stuff that really rubs people the wrong way.
  20. I'm still liking my chances here, the trajectory on the decline looks good. By July/August this thread is going to be dead anyways just like the pandemic.
  21. My arm where I got the shot was pretty sore especially when I used it so I'm pretty sure you're not going to want to do any heavy exertion until it gets better. Took about 48 hrs for me after each shot.
  22. As others noted, there are a number of problems here. 1. You can't add these two groups because there's a lot of overlap. 2. Vaccines give ~80-90% protection on average and infection probably also gives ~80% protection. So even if we somehow miraculously have no overlap, we're still at best around 75% population immunity which would definitely be sufficient. 3. Local level of immunity will be important, if the entire northeast is sitting at 70% of the population vaccinated + 10% with immunity through infection but not vaccinated then 80% total x 80% efficacy = 64% immune to virus introduced in that area, the virus will have a hard time finding new targets to sustain an outbreak. If you have the large sector of the southeast where only 50% get vaccinated + 15% immune through infection but not vaccinated then you get 65% total x 80% efficacy = 52% immune to virus introduction. Outbreaks still significantly mitigated but 12% would be a substantial difference. Fortunately it does seem like the elderly and high risk are getting the vaccine more so it may not matter in terms of the important metrics like death and disability. I'm still optimistic that things are overall going to be fine, everyone who doesn't want to get vaccinated will deal with the consequences ultimately. We're at the point where it is about choice and not access.
  23. As time goes on the total % vaccinated is becoming more and more similar to the 2020 election map, pretty remarkable, the consequences to the areas that have bought into the lies about the vaccines will probably be seen next fall and winter. I wonder if we see the per capita new infections and deaths start to look the same.
  24. This is an interesting study on how well natural infection induced immunity protects against reinfection. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00158-2/fulltext It was prospective and looked at usmc recruits. 10% of those with antibodies got infected and roughly 50% of those without antibodies got infected over a 6 week period. Based on this study, evidence of prior infection provided about an 80% protection. The reinfected individuals also had a lower viral load so probably less severe illness compared to the control group. Higher antibody levels also provided more protection. The study population was mostly young males so it may not necessarily apply to other ages/genders. Still interesting. Though not directly tested in the study, I think it implies that the mrna vaccine provide more protection against infection than natural immunity from prior infection.
  25. In this study there is exposure of lung cells in a petri dish to the spike protein. With the mrna vaccine, expression of the spike protein is induced in cells in the arm, and in the virus vector vaccines, the spike protein is also only in the muscle in the arm. The immune response then kicks in based on these foreign proteins in the arm. The theory from this paper is that the spike protein itself, not the immune response to the spike protein may contribute to the long term symptoms by affecting gene expression in cells exposed to purified spike protein. The vaccine doesn't expose lung cells to the spike protein, thus infection would cause these problems because lots of lung cells are exposed to the spike protein but not vaccination. This is all very theoretical though, there is not translational research to say whether or not the changes seen in this in vitro study would have the effects in vivo.
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