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Everything posted by mattb65

  1. I don't think it's fair to call it an anti vaccine site, it's just information reported by people and seems to be pulled straight from the cdc. I agree that the way it is set up without context could easily be used by people to justify an anti vaccine position and to emphasize the adverse reactions. I read some of the detailed reports on the bottom and most of the deaths seem to be people at end of lifewho got the vaccine. There was and clear panic attacks/psychogenic seizures too.
  2. CDC is the agency of record for vaccine safety in the US, here's what they have posted regarding deaths that have occurred in close time frame after vaccination. "Over 145 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through March 29, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 2,509 reports of death (0.0017%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. CDC and FDA physicians review each case report of death as soon as notified and CDC requests medical records to further assess reports. A review of available clinical information including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records revealed no evidence that vaccination contributed to patient deaths." https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html
  3. The clinical trials were scientifically as rigorous and well done as any. There were no shortcuts in any of the phase 3 trials from the three EUA vaccines in use here. Astra Zeneca pulled some shenanigans with their trial data that they'll have to answer for when they go before the vaccine review board. In terms of whether they've gone through the normal full approval phase - as you know not yet but hopefully soon. EUA was the right choice given the circumstances and will likely end up being a decision that saved many thousands of lives. At the same time if a low risk person wants to wait for full FDA approval, that is a reasonable personal choice. My view is that the data is compelling and benefits of vaccine >>> risk of vaccine. Allowing people to have the vaccine for >6 months without major problems will hopefully ease any further worries about their safety.
  4. I can understand and respect the first point of waiting to let others get it first. I encourage you to try to find unbiased reports on the real world efficacy. The data coming out of Isreal and in the early groups immunized in the USA - nursing home and Healthcare workers is very strong and has shown a really good translation of clinical trial efficacy to real world efficacy without any large safety signals popping up aside from the well covered allergic reactions that some have had.
  5. I agree but also think that personal choices can have reasonable benefits and consequences. People that choose to get vaccination shouldn't have to spend a bunch of money to get a pre travel covid test to avoid quarantine in hawaii for example. But an unvaccinated person should still need to get their test to prove that they aren't carrying the virus. Many colleges require a whole host of immunizations to attend same with elementary school, same with the military. This isn't a new concept.
  6. You may have already posted this but why specifically are you against the covid vaccine? Would your opinion change once it's fully FDA approved or change under any circumstances?
  7. Probably by that time it won't be necessary assuming no unexpected changes in the virus and vaccine effectiveness. I understand that this is a complex issue logistically and when you throw in how vaccine hesitancy has taken one political bent. I put in under current circumstances because by June/July vaccine supply should be more than enough to meet demand and I completely understand the argument to let people make their own choices and live with the consequences. I'm not hard-core must show vaccination to do everything.
  8. Going to concerts and sporting events are a privilege and under the current circumstances, showing proof of vaccination is a reasonable requirement from event organizers. States require seatbelts for the same reason. People flying to Hawaii need to provide proof of a negative test to bypass quarantine, usually paid for out of pocket and usually >$100 - not sure having to show a negative covid test to go to a concert is really what you want. Worse than showing that you're vaccinated.
  9. We pray that it doesn't happen, there will be intense evolutionary pressure on the virus to circumvent vaccine immunity in the next couple months which is exactly why the health officials have been emphasizing how this is the critical time to avoid increases in viral replication. We are really vaccinating fast so I think we'll be able to suppress it to low levels here. Hard to be confident that places like most of the EU countries, Brazil and developing countries will be able to keep it contained enough. Might be a bit of whack a mole for a while. Hopefully we can get the virus suppressed enough that we can get ahead of things with better surveillance to contain things this time.
  10. Like you said, no clear answer on whether vaccines prevent long covid but quite a few anecdotes of the vaccines essentially treating and resolving long covid symptoms in many individuals. This recently published article is an apropos look at this exact question. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/03/vaccines-long-covid/618406/
  11. Many have been speculating that the Michigan surge may skew hospitalizations towards a younger cohort due to vaccinations and also likely lead to less mortality from this wave of infections. This far it looks like the first point is bearing out and probably the cfr will be lower this round due to vaccinations. Really interesting article discussing this https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/03/michigan-sees-alarming-increase-in-covid-19-hospitalizations-among-unvaccinated-adults.html As more and more great data continues to confirm the vaccine trial data in real world scenarios, the hesitancy will hopefully continue to decline. There is almost no rational reason to avoid getting the vaccine.
  12. I think we all try to build a narrative that explains the various waves of the virus and assign causation to policies or lack of policies. Inevitably there are too many variables involved to actually determine which specific ones that stand out do so due to correlation or causation. Most will just fall back to their preconceived biases to explain things. Above is a perfect example - mask mandates were in place but the cases still spiked - aka masks do nothing. But there's no good control case and how do we know whether mask mandates actually increase our decrease mask use? It's very hard to measure especially since much of the spread of covid seems to occur through family and friends behind close doors. There's obviously some additional public mixing that contributes to the spread. There's also clearly a strong seasonality to the virus that leaks in different regions at different times. I don't envy the policy makers at all in all of this because many of the decisions they are making are lose-lose situations. Thankfully I think this current wave will be much smaller than before, much less deadly and that ultimately the vaccines give us the silver bullet we need to come out of this. I'm impressed by the way vaccines got through all the regulatory hurdles under Trump incredibly fast and glad the Biden administration took over when they did to improve the delivery and distribution problems.
  13. Be quiet with your logic here. Fwiw, I didn't get the sense that people in this thread were feeding too much into the media hysteria about the mask mandate issue. So much of the ebbs and flows of this virus seem to be driven by seasonal factors, it's extremely hard to assign causality to the rise and fall in cases. Like you said it's a function of human behavior and the innumerable environmental factors that affect transmission. At this point I'm not sure how much unenforceable mandates on mask wearing affects human behavior. Having said that there is very obvious and clear cause and effect data coming out of Israel, Nursing Homes in the US and Healthcare workers in the US that validates how insanely effective the vaccine is at preventing infections.
  14. Per CDC data, total of 1.9 million hospitalizations - https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions Edit: this is from August 2020 to within the past week so not including the first waves of the virus. The total number would be significantly more. dta posted above that 95% don't require hospitalization, that's 5% that do require hospitalization which is insanely high and appropriately covered by the media as a big deal. For reference, according to CDC data approximately 1-1.5% of all influenza cases require hospitalization. When you take the hospitalization rate in combination with how extraordinarily more transmissible covid is compared with influenza it is expected that almost all the news would be terrible about the virus. 2020 was a terrible year for so many reasons.
  15. The vaccine effect on deaths and hospitalizations diverging from cases is becoming more and more apparent especially now that cases are starting to level off our even tick back up slightly. With the pace of vaccines providing protection to the vulnerable and slowing of transmission things should be generally open everywhere and restrictions lifted by the end of April or May at the latest imo. I agree with those that are saying that we aren't giving enough positive incentives and positive messages about the benefits of widespread vaccinations and how rapid we will be way low on deaths and hospitalizations. I think it's partially fear of a variant taking off and the difficulty to walk things back plus the political fall out if you over promise and under deliver. I'm pretty sure people are paying enough attention to see where things are going with the pandemic end in sight.
  16. That's fair too, I would never talk to a patient like this either. If you go back a few pages I did go through in detail the risks and benefits which is how I'd discuss it on an individual level. Ultimately it's the individual's decision.
  17. I'm a physician, it's literally my job to review the medical information and assess the risks and benefits or a particular intervention to make a treatment recommendation. Ultimately it's the individual's decision to follow the advice or not. I think the @winterwx21 scenario is interesting. Since he already had covid I would say putting off the vaccine is a reasonable decision considering all of his individual factors but once we know more about the durability of the immune response to infection it'll be important to consider making a different recommendation if vaccine boosters are needed. I'm a little curious why his medical recommendation changed from it coming from his cardiologist to now coming from his primary care.
  18. I understand that there has been a narrative about vaccine hesitancy in the black community which is why I found the survey results that I posted interesting. It turns out that only 25% of black people in the poll linked above don't intend to get vaccinated vs 30% of white people. This would support the primary issue being an access problem rather than a hesitancy problem. Back to the discussion of why people that have access to the vaccine choose not to. It's one of fear, selfishness or poor comprehension of risk vs benefit calculation which goes back to fear. And I suppose there's a handful of people deep in conspiracy land. @winterwx21 can you link to the JAMA article that you referenced about the anaphylaxis rates.
  19. Black people not getting the vaccine appears that it may be more of an access problem rather than interst in getting vaccinated, hopefully the state, local and federal programs will improve this problem. I am all for appealing to selfish people by making enjoyable things like traveling by plane internationally contingent on being vaccinated. My mistake, re: the republican white men, I fixed it
  20. You've got your groups wrong, top people rejecting the vaccine: 1. Republican men 2. Trump 2020 supporters 3. White men without college degrees 4. White evangelical christians 5. Under 45 6. Latino 7. Rural 8. Independent men 9. White 10. Black In fact 30 % of all people are saying no but only 25% of black people. Source - https://www.tomfriedenpublichealth.net/tom-frieden-blog#it-aint-over-til-its-over-3-13-21 My point still stands it's frustrating that something like vaccinations that should be apolitical is now yet another partisan thing. You fit right into the core anti covid vaccine demographic. Fwiw I'm all for using whatever carrots or sticks are needed to get the necessary numbers of people vaccinated to crush this virus.
  21. Yup, tells us a lot about the segment of the population that needs to be given these carrots or beaten with these sticks to take something obviously beneficial on both an individual and societal level. Says something about those people not about the scientists doing the science and presenting the information.
  22. To me it has been very encouraging to continue to see the weekly decline in cases, hospitalizations and deaths even as the variants are becoming the dominant strain in more and more locations. We all know that we're getting close to a critical mass of people vaccinated and/or immune from prior infections but not quite there yet. I think what may be working in our favor is that the people who were most careful and least likely to get covid are first in line to get vaccinated and the plandemic types have already been infected and are already part of the herd. I know this is an over generalization and lots of people who were careful also got infected but I bet this is part of what's helping to keep numbers down.
  23. Sometimes attribution of the cause of death can help families in their grieving process. I think the article provides a balanced accounting of the facts known so far. It's possible that the vaccine caused her to go into liver failure but lots of other things can cause acute liver failure. With over 300 million doses worldwide, there hasn't been any other widespread cases reported so even if this one is determined to be linked to the vaccine it would appear to be vanishingly rare.
  24. Unfortunately more data that refutes the widely held belief that the virus will mutate to become less lethal over time. With the UK strain, the evidence is pretty compelling that in this instance the opposite is true. Fortunately the UK infection and mortality curves show that we can still win against variants by attacking them with aggressive vaccinations and public health measures.
  25. A rare time where I agree with you, pretty dumb headline by CNN, the CDC isn't doing anything with "freedoms". They are providing expert advice and guidance...
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