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Newman

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Everything posted by Newman

  1. Newman
    Widespread winter storm warnings now in effect, blizzard warnings for the coast. Berks and Lehigh Valley are 8-16". 14-18 for Philly, 20-24 for Jersey coast under Blizzard Warning
  2. Newman
    Ukie looks good, coming into alignment here. This would honestly be my "base" snow map as far as spatial coverage of heaviest snows
  3. Newman
    Yeah GFS is a tick east but it's just noise at this point. There will be a deep 700mb fronto band on the NW side of this thing that models will not pin down at all. Right now the meso models/GFS have Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Chester as the far western edge of that. It could be east of that, or west. There will be a sharp cutoff
  4. Newman
    Very much agree, these h500 tick improvements are more important than surface output
  5. Newman
    RGEM continues to be unenthused in truly tucking and stalling the low into the coast. The mid-level lows close off just a bit too late and it scoots ENE quicker. It may also be chasing the convection to the east
  6. Newman
    This is again where you go and bring up the Top 5-10 all time lists
  7. Newman
    NAM is a significant increase in totals for Berks and the Lehigh Valley. 12-18" for everyone. Philly and Jersey 2-3 feet. Actually there might be more coming...
  8. Newman
    Agreed, they'll probably go 8-12". Might even see 10-14
  9. Newman
    NAM coming in even more amped, heights higher and cleaner phase. Here we go
  10. Newman
    Not my gif, got this from somewhere else. But wow.
  11. Newman
    HRRR develops an eyewall
  12. Newman
    Long range 12z HRRR is just insane, wow
  13. Newman
    SREFs coming in even more tucked and amped!
  14. Newman
    Yes it was Juno in Jan 2015. Different storm evolutions and scenarios though, that was a Miller B with a late capture. Still, a similar final outcome is still on the table though not likely.
  15. Newman
    I would personally take the 12" line right up to Philly right now, just northwest of Philly 8-12, and Berks/LHV 5-8". Points along the Jersey coast will see localized 24"+. I'm leaning heavily on the Canadian guidance which is right in the middle seemingly of the GFS/Euro. I think the final solution is 20 miles west of the Canadian.
  16. Newman
    Really the only difference between the models is how quickly do the mid level/upper level lows fully close off. Euro is the slowest, meso models/GFS the fastest. This is exactly why I had a fear of it slipping east... Because more often than not these are "late" and end up being NYC -> Boston hits. I'm 100% not calling for whatever the hell that 0z Euro run was, in fact I'm still leaning towards a more GFS solution. But it is a valid concern and we will see at 12z here what happens.
  17. Newman
    I have a very hard time believing the Euro would be as east as it is with what it's giving us at the upper levels. It's essentially lock step with other guidance now, perhaps 20-25 miles further east with the h7 low passage. For folks in the Lehigh Valley and Berks, yes those 20-25 miles could be the difference between 6-8" or 12-16". For Philly SE, I think the Euro is still catching up
  18. Newman
    Ukie backs even further west again, precip shield looks weird and again I'd argue it could/should be better with where the h5 and H7 lows stack
  19. Newman
    GEFS mean snowfall. Yes, ensemble MEAN.
  20. Newman
  21. Newman
    GFS mega band at 10pm Sunday. This run is gonna be insane!
  22. Newman
    If you look at the H5 and H7 tracks/pivot compared to th NAM, it's barely different at all. It's just banding differences and it seems like to me the RGEM is struggling with the precip output.
  23. Newman
    Here comes the GFS...
  24. Newman
    ICON!!!
  25. Newman
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