Newman

That 12Z GFS run definitely on the far western edge of the NHC cone and envelope, Florida East Coast most certainly gets in on outer rain bands in that scenario. TS Watches are up along coastal Martin to Volusia counties in East-Central Florida (Melbourne CWA)

0z hurricane models. More showing the stall and turn east motion now.

Agreed. I work at FDEM as one of the mets and we've been trying our best to communicate the uncertainty in the forecast at the 3-4 day range. But at this point, most people expect a solid "answer". Not expecting any direct impacts from Imelda here, but are keeping our Florida East Coast partners well informed. On another note, South Carolina has just declared a state of emergency

Should have PTC 9 at the 5pm or 8pm advisory at the latest, it's coming up on Tomer Burg's site as a PTC now. By the way, some really nice value added products on his tropics site: polarwx.com/tropical

The trend in the forward motion of 94L is perhaps one of the biggest changes in the past day or so. The GFS went from having it buried in the Bahamas late Sunday/early Monday to being 12 hours away from a Carolinas landfall at that same time. This has certainly helped with the questions regarding interactions between 94L and Humberto. Such a faster 94L eliminates really any fujiwhara conversations. But, we are still within the 4-5 day range where I wouldn't take much off the table yet, other than perhaps a northern Mid-Atlantic and New England hit with such strong confluence present up there

The trend in the recent GFS and Euro runs has clearly been towards a stronger HP system over the top of Humberto, which effectively allows it to strengthen faster, move slower, and travel more on a west-northwest heading vs purely northwest. This allows for greater spacing between 94L and Humberto, it "escapes" out ahead of Humberto without any real fujiwhara or interactions. Humberto plays a big role in the final evolution of 94L. How quickly 94L can develop once crossed over Hispaniola also is huge, but we don't know that yet. Until a well-defined center of circulation and system is there, there's lots of uncertainties

In most cases I wouldn't even think twice about the Euro AI showing a system developing in the Western Carribean at Day 11, but it is interesting to note that both the Google Deep Mind GenCast and regular Google Deep Mind ensemble are highlighting TC genesis in the same location and time, and then tracking into the Gulf. What are the AI models picking up on (or not) that the physics-based deterministic aren't? And to note, even the NHC is using the Google DM in their official forecasts. It has done very well this season.

Quite the bust with this wave. The Euro AI did well on not biting on this one

A couple climate statistics for Allentown as we wrapped up August: The average temperature was 70.0F, the coolest August since 2008. Likewise the average minimum was 58.3F, the lowest since 2008. The lowest minimum recorded was 45F, which is the lowest August min since 2000 (which tied with a min of 45). The next year that recorded a lower minimum in August is 1986! 1.6" of precip fell, which is the driest August since 2008.

Echoing what Andy said on twitter here, this has been my thinking with any tropical system development in the MDR this month: https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1952439813619003854 We've had round after round of SAL outbreaks across the Atlantic the past month or two. It looks to relax a bit in this favorable stretch approaching, but I won't believe any model until we see a potent AEW with persistent convection. Also, beyond just a wave developing into a TC, I think the real key in the modeling is how they handle the weak ULL in the north Atlantic and if that allows for a weakness for a TC to slip north. Current SAL situation: 12z GFS with the tropical wave and some lessening of the dry upper air regime.

The WPC just issued a Moderate risk for flash flooding across the I-95 corridor tomorrow. The HRRR and NAM are both showing PWATs upwards of 2.2-2.5" and the front looks to be draped right across NW PA with plenty of moisture transport into the region

My brother in Lititz last night got smoked with nearly 6" of rain. More on the way today

Confirmed/observed tornado just 6-7 miles east of Laramie today, crazy storm. Went and picked up some golf balls once the storm passed. Probably 2-3 inches of accumulated hail in the hardest hit areas

16/7/3

Photos I took of the Akron, CO tornado yesterday. Edited slightly to make the tornado pop a bit more, the dust made the visibility super low!

Things look stormy and active from Wednesday through the weekend across the front range and plains. A pretty potent shortwave trough and -PNA will result in quite a few disturbances rotating through the region. The orientation and strength of the PNA will determine where the bulk of the precip goes and whether the front range gets in on a favorable moisture advection regime. Currently a marginal risk from the SPC for Wednesday

I'm not sure we even picked up 1 inch here in Laramie, under a WWA for 3-6"

Gotcha, was just going off the MesoWest site https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KRDG&unit=0&timetype=GMT

My folk in Fleetwood had a big tree go down in the backyard this afternoon. Looks like peak gust at KRDG was 57 mph this afternoon. More shallow convection moving through right now

From my folk just in Fleetwood... Over an inch of snow on cold surfaces this morning before things started to melt. Certainly didn't expect accumulating snow to get as far south as Berks, let alone over an inch

12z Euro is pretty much bone dry for the next 10 days across the Lehigh Valley. GFS keeps temps in lower 50s while Euro gets into mid-upper 50s. Quite possible this final stretch of February gets some climate stations back closer to normal for the month after a cold start

To be honest, the coastal storm itself is probably long gone at this point for much of the SE PA region. The ULL snows though are very much a plausible possibility with a C-1"

Did the 12k NAM just give Philly like 8 inches? Lol. Even the 3k NAM, which skunks Philly, shifted quite a bit NW and gives ACY like 4-6. Don't believe it

Quite the h5 look, so close to something big but it'll probably be too little too late. If at this point the ULL/trough was neutral and not slightly positive, you'd be able to scoop up enough PVA to swing it into at least the Philly area. Some very intense curvature vorticity being advected towards the downstream flank of the trough, but that pesky confluence streak in northern Maine is helping to slow how quickly this turns neutral (as well as the fast flow in general). If a long range smoothed ensemble picked up on this exact h5 look, I'd be screaming KU too. But when it came down to it, we were about 12-18 hours off in timing.

Quick glance seems like H5 is improved on almost all models, if the trend continues I'd expect some ticks back NW. However even with improvement still dealing with a lack of PVA getting into the region with the ULL turning neutral just too late