Scarlet Pimpernel

I know you weren't canceling anything...I was being humorous and facetious because the moods in here give one whiplash (people posting 360+ hour ops maps and freaking out, OMG!!!! And that right after partying at a crazy snowstorm the GFS showed at 06Z.). You've been spot on steady as a rock about "your" period of about Feb. 20 through Mar. 15. And I agree with your thoughts on this upcoming next week. While I was hopeful (still am!) and it would be cool to score before the time that will be more truly favorable, it is kind of an iffy prospect. You did state that to be sure (an iffy prospect next week), while at the same time saying that you weren't discounting any snow threats prior to the 20th. I thought that was a fair take. (And, BTW, I appreciate the educational and philosophical discussions as well).

I kind of understand what you're saying here, but this isn't exactly how models work. At least not dynamical models that compute a complex set of dynamic/thermodynamic equations through time, given a set of input initial conditions. Now, the AI-type models might be able to do this. Does the Euro AI use some historical database of the Nino state (or any other factor, like MJO), in its forecasts? You can argue that perhaps the dynamical models don't respond as well as they should to the overall atmospheric state, but it's not a situation of where some "base state" is ignored; it would be sort of indirectly factored in by the input data. If you ran the GFS in the Jurassic era (using those observations the dinosaurs took, hahaha!), it would still work and it would respond to what the atmospheric state was at that time, within the confines of the model biases and such. Regardless of the atmospheric state, the physical and thermodynamic laws are still the same. Of course, as I said, one can look into how well any particular model or ensemble can handle that or how well those equations are represented. But that's a different conversation.

Wow, the mood in here seems to have deflated faster than a Tom Brady football! We've been following the later February into March time frame as being a very favorable time for good opportunities, for a little while now. Yeah, the 06Z GFS with the crazy 40" amounts is not going to happen and I don't think anyone truly took that to heart. But it showed the potential, as have other similar storms that have shown up in that time frame a handful of times. Now, everyone semi-loses it because the GFS and Euro ops show rainers, and now we're talking like, "well, it's a Nina, so we're doomed regardless" or "what if the blocking doesn't work", etc. Of course there is no guarantee with a favorable setup, but I would think there will be several chances to score all the same. If people are looking for a top-5 HECS system here, you're likely going to be disappointed even though that could happen, sure. If you're looking for some solid MECS events, that's a better shot in this environment (i.e., yes, a Nina!).

So...we're canceling the PSU window now?

Elementary, my dear Maestro!

LOL! Well the only F bomb we all really want to hear is FOLKS of course! The frickle thing reminds me of this old New Yorker cartoon. It shows this couple on a date and the man says, "Do you like Kipling?" To which his date says coyly, "I don't know, I've never Kippled!"

Next weekend? Today is this weekend LOL!

Looking at that loop through the past few cycles, it seems clear the 00Z was a very anemic outlier. It really stands out. All other GEFS means in that loop have a similarly wide area of decent or better snow, though it of course wavers back and forth.

That 06Z storm was insane. But something like that has shown up in that general time frame a few times now.

What the frack is a frickle? But seriously what is the GFS showing next weekend, I haven't check 12Z yet? At one point it was showing some kind of snow/ice scenario, then had more of a cutter... Seemed to be back and forth.

Same here, I'm always re-reading and checking and still miss stuff! I don't use autocorrect or auto-fill on my phone or anywhere else because it's annoying and sometimes is just plain wrong (or gets in the way), LOL! Now, back to tracking our long-awaited @psuhoffman storm!

Perhaps you were internally thinking the potential for this upcoming week was rather...weak! (And my previous post was of course all in fun and humor!).

I just "new" you would say that!!! (sorry @stormtracker, couldn't resist, I await the "ban-hammer" for continuing that joke! ).

That kooky storm the 06Z GFS showed at the end of its run (and I love its kookiness!) is like the 2nd or 3rd time that a major storm has shown up in the @psuhoffman "window" in the ops models in the past few days. I hope that's a good sign. Obviously, you can't take any one of them too seriously and at face value at this point, but I'd like to think that seeing big hits like that show up in the ops indicates a solid potential.

That's doesn't sound half bad, really!

FYP!

Yeah I think I see the same thing you're showing and describing. I like the orientation of the later TPV somehow (the 18Z one), seems like it allows for colder air to establish maybe, for something to run into?

I honestly focused more on @mitchnick's first image ending on Wednesday, Feb. 12, which is for the first event or whatever we're calling it. That mean is a lot better looking than what the ops GFS and Euro showed, and the GEFS mean, for that time frame. But I agree to some extent, the lower plot that shows snow through Thursday, that total will involve some kind of snow/ice to rain for the 2nd event at this point.

Unless that one word is...FOLKS!!!

Looks like that wave off the Pacific northwest coast gets a little more separated in the latest run? Allowing for what looks like a more north-northwest flow out of Canada?

The PSUHoffman-Brooklynwx Storm! I'll let them decide who should be referenced first!

Meh...looks drier. You had a bigger glass at 00Z!

Taking this to Banter... When I think about it, I generally agree with you. Neither type of post is great to have to scroll through when there are tons of each. But generally the "doom posts" tend to overwhelm most everything. I get just as down or frustrated when there are model cycles that seem to look worse or trend worse, but I don't feel the need to dump a ton of what I feel in the main discussion threads. That kind of stuff should be put here in Banter (or the semi-defunct Panic Room?). I'm just as guilty as anyone with putting "banterish" posts in the main threads, though generally I try to keep those a bit lighter with some humor. There is a certain amount of leeway in what one can post in those threads, which is totally fine (outside storm mode, when we have that). Especially in the "down" periods between model runs. But I also try to put some things here in Banter as well instead of the other places.

You just noticed? But I agree, it's crazy some of the stuff.