Scarlet Pimpernel

I know from looking at various types of events (not just for snow) that the AIFS (Euro) has done a stunningly good job out to 5 or even 7 days for situations that are rather tricky. And it tended to lock in, not go all over the place. Granted, those cases were just specific individual ones that maybe were more favorable for it, but you get the idea. I'm pretty impressed with how the AI models have done.

Question for anyone more knowledgeable about the internals of AI models, both the Euro and GFS versions. Do they tend to "hold onto" or continue to reflect previous runs in general, for a couple of cycles? That is, if they show a great hit, do they tend to still sort of show that in the next run and perhaps gradually diminish over time? I ask that in terms of the standard dynamical models which rely upon initial conditions based upon a short forecast from the previous run, so some of the "information" gets propagated so to speak. This doesn't happen all the time, but there are notable events (ahem, some storm in Dec. 2010!) that held on to "good" runs for us before finally later giving up on that idea. Vice-versa has also happened I'm sure (but we tend to recall the bad busts!). I don't know if AI models do the same or if they just take an initial field, and based on the same long training sample they were derived with, come up with whatever forecast regardless of what the immediate preceding run(s) showed. Not sure if I asked this correctly and hope it makes sense, but I am curious.

Grey scale?

Too many people had too much tequila, and...well, you know!

Well, the last 3-4 pages were an "interesting" read!! I swear some people in this place. Thanks to those who kept it grounded and real, no reason to abandon everything due to different deterministic solutions a week or more out. To lighten the mood and give some hope, today is apparently "World Snow Day"!!! Gotta be worth something!!

Well for my part I didn't have a dog in the fight personally. But I will say I have a bit of animosity for the Broncos, as a native Clevelander. I witnessed "The Drive", and "The Fumble" in the AFC championship games in consecutive years (1987, 1988), Cleveland vs. Denver. Ugh!!!

And yet...they still managed to force overtime!

Can't wait for @stormtracker's drunken 00Z PBP...regardless of what the outcome is, that will be more entertaining and informative than the past couple of pages of crap posting and negativity!

Weren't you talking about how all ensembles were showing their greatest agreement with a pretty decent amount, several hours ago?

Looks to me like that big, cold high is notably farther to the northwest compared to 12Z, rather than moving in over-top. So the wave and low are a lot further north.

I absolutely expect this. It's not a setup like, say, the Jan. 2016 blizzard that was locked in consistently on every single model a week in advance where the only issue was how much and whether we'd get sleet as well as a ton of snow. As long as the main overall idea is there with a decent wave throwing moisture into very cold air remains consistent and doesn't get can-kicked, that's good right now in my opinion. Individual deterministic runs will vary all over the place, as expected right now, and hopefully ensembles will still be hammering that time frame.

Hush!!! Don't "JI"nx it!!!

That's the best...when we've got something on the doorstep and other potential events to follow after!!! Better than grasping at shreds of hope during shit the blinds periods, by showing week 4 Euro weeklies and MJO charts!

...of the AmWx mid-Atlantic forum, in order to form a more perfect Snowftorm... (yes, I purposely used an "f" in snowstorm to make it look all late 18th century!!)

You can always hire a SKELETON crew to work on it! A unique fixer-upper opportunity! If it's condemned, that's what the Reaper would need!

I think that may be one of the lesser known original amendments to the (Weenie) Constitution!

Well, you do still own property here...i.e., the Panic Room...even if you're retired now!!

@mappy...Happened to notice in my search icon that today apparently is "Tulip Day!!!" (The search bar always shows some kind of "such and such day"!). Though perhaps you knew that since you like tulips! Which reminds me, come April or so I'll have to remember to post some tulip photos again if I can get some good ones then!

Thank you very much, good sir! I try to brighten things in here and impart some humor how I can even when things look pretty blah...while at the same time add some value and knowledge to the general storm and weather discussions. And I likewise appreciate your comments, love of good music (especially Beethoven!), and snow! Also, coffee and (in my case) alcoholic drinks are always good! There are a lot of people in here whom I appreciate and always look forward to reading (and met a few at a mid-Atlantic "get together" from 10 years ago!)...just to name several offhand, @stormtracker, @psuhoffman, @MillvilleWx, @Terpeast, @WxUSAF, @high risk, @mappy, @H2O, @yoda, @WxWatcher007, @Mrs.J, @Bob Chill, @ravensrule, @Scraff, @CAPE, @Jebman. (I've probably missed some, my apologies if I have!) Thanks for the community, the weather talk, and great times following all our snow events over the years!

Jeez, the mood swings and tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth in this place!!! You'd think we've gone from a HECS to a 70 degree wall-to-wall torch for the rest of the month given the tone of some posts! Yeah, I know, should be used to it by now in all the years I've been on this forum. But still. I checked some of the models and read some of the better posts in here and...honestly, you cannot ask for a much better placed to be at this point. As several others have said, and I agree, the potential and look starting around Jan. 22-24ish is great! Obviously, that's no guarantee we score anything (the usual caveat statement!). However, every model has been showing at least one and in many cases more than one solid event from next weekend through the end of the month. The ensembles likewise look solid (I think @mitchnick posted the snow means earlier?) and have for a little while now. This isn't some one-off where a stray deterministic run dumps on us one time and then it's gone forever and ensembles showing nothing. This is a fairly consistent indication of waves running into solid cold air...maybe at different times each model cycle but it keeps showing up and it's not being can-kicked. It's kind of like how @Bob Chill says...sometimes you see great looking ensemble means but "under the hood" there's not much there when you should see some good hits, which raises red flags; other times, you see great looking ensembles and there ARE good hits in there along with the same from deterministic models. So yeah, I gotta like what's under the hood here!

Are we in Guy Fawkes ("Guys-Folks") territory????