Scarlet Pimpernel

All joking aside (and you know who I was sort of poking fun at), that is a very reasonable estimate.

So, not your first final call, or your final initial estimate to be revised later, but an actual final call??

I like seeing a consistent ~0.3" QPF in the DC area, my expectation in this area is on the order of 2-4" in a fairly short period of time through early morning. Tomorrow promises to be quite wintry...it will be clearing out but it will be cold and getting windy, with snow on the ground!

I say let it happen, and let it crash!!!

Thank you! It was amazing. I looked outside from my apartment and saw the color just in time to rush up to the rooftop deck and grab a few shots before it disappeared. I love the sunset color at this time of year!

You mean like THIS? (Took these not long ago, just in time to capture that amazing sunset...and yeah, I enhanced the color)...

Yeah that's kind of what I was thinking with my comments above about the broad "bowl" type look. I would think that at least keeps a fair bit of cold air on this side of the hemisphere, which keeps a solid amount of cold air ever lurking in Canada. If we don't have some jacked up ridge form that floods all the cold air out, we can perhaps score what you're mentioning...a CAD overrunning event, and even if it flips to rain, there is still cold air nearby that can come right back in behind the system. At least that's the hope!

Paging Beethoven (and @stormtracker, @Maestrobjwa...fellow classical music afficionados!)...

Can you zoom that out to the global scale, please??

Well, I sure hope that's the case. The long post I put above the one with the "Lord, it's a miracle!" gif was just some stuff I observed from cursory looks at the 500-mb flow. I'd much prefer (and assume others as well) a broad bowl than a pumped up ridge that not only would torch us but would blow away cold air in Canada which would take a longer time to regenerate. BTW...you don't care for "Shawshank Redemption" (the gif I put up there), with the weenie tag emoji??

I can't recall exactly what the overall 2013-14 and 2014-15 500-mb look was like, but yeah. I somehow seem to remember we really lucked out (particularly in 2013-14) with a more persistent +PNA, we had little or no help on the Atlantic side, and it was a Nina as well. But it worked out! Another thing, taking these plots at face value for now even though it's waaay out there in time: I've noticed the model cycles that look better, less torchy, or even amazing like last night do not amplify things such that we end up with a ridiculous 588+ dm ridge over the East Coast. Yeah, I know that's obvious, but my point mainly is that while the PNA looks negative, there is a strong ridge over western AK and there's more of a "bowl" like broad trough through Canada and the northern US, with occasional shortwaves pressing down to potentially deliver cold air. That's not something you see in a wall-to-wall torch pattern, and not something that floods Canada with warm air. I'm kind of encouraged by that look! In a way it almost reminds me as well of February 2007, there was a wide, broad trough that covered much of the CONUS, or something like that, which enabled delivery of very cold air from Canada. If one ignores the color shading for the anomalies on the map above, and just look at the overall height contours, you can maybe see what I mean here (there's also a hint of confluence in the northeast).

Sorry about that, it is a painful memory! I still recall watching the game and literally started cheering (as were a bunch of other people) because the kick actually looked good, then I saw the refs indicate otherwise. Only upon replay was it clear it was JUST a bit outside. Oh well. Yes, hopeful for Saturday night! I'm impressed at how bullish LWX is going but makes sense given current indications and trends.

Let's just not pull an FSU with a wide-right miss! I still remember being there as a grad student for the first "wide right" vs. Miami in 1991 (FSU was ranked #1 and Miami #2 at that time)...ugh!!

That would be God-awful to see in JULY (let alone December)!! We'd be talking triple digits if it were summer!