Scarlet Pimpernel

Did we find another Rev War Re-enactor??? What the Hessian is going on???

Very much so, agreed! Would take that in a minute!

Could it be...FOLKSY, even?? Of course, 200 hours out, whatever, but I am just glad to see a semi-consistent possibility across all model guidance right now. Euro also looked good at 12Z for the most part.

I think you're fine, probably no need to apologize. Everyone here respects your analysis. Even if you're making less than $150K hahaha! You always appropriately correct or re-state things when required. Besides, at this time range those smaller details like NS shortwaves and such are going to move around every cycle. Key takeaway is there is a solid signal for us in that time period, seems like one or two waves in there that could work?

Decent light snow has been falling for about the past hour or so. Small flake size.

Wow...that's not a very nice thing for Jack to do at your place!!

Bravo! Well played!

Yeah that did look..."interesting"...in terms of development. But hell, looked pretty damned decent to me overall! it appears that it develops a coastal after it has passed us (and dumps a decent WAA thump of snow/mix/ice), while still holding on to a fairly strong primary around the Lakes. But temps look OK verbatim through that time. And then some small disturbance gives more snow a short time after behind all that it appears?

Just be sure to wear your rubbers...I mean BOOTS of course!!!!

Sorry if I came off a bit harsh before. I'm hopeful that whatever warmup or relaxation is relatively short and we can have some real chances thereafter for the latter part of this month and early March. I'm not expecting the level of cold we just had (nobody should be!), but if we can have some decent cold around that can be tapped into with a nicely timed wave, we can do pretty well perhaps. @psuhoffman described this a bit earlier. We may have more variability, but as long as we don't get stuck in a lousy setup I think/hope we'll be good.

But you're only showing it THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY when it will just be underway, and it includes some very cold air expected this weekend. Look, I'm all for it being very muted as much as possible but in reality we should be looking at about Wednesday of next week into the following one. ETA: And yeah, even looking at the plot @Ji posted which would cover more of the moderation...note the warm departures heading our way just to the west. ETA2: Also, every single model, not just the Euro, is projecting a blast of very cold air through this weekend into the early part of next week.

The relaxation, however much it may be, doesn't really START until about the middle of next week. It's from that period onward for however long it is.

Check the dates. Half of that period or so includes the upcoming cold temperatures expected late this week into Monday of next week. Geez.