BooneWX

Well ahead of pace here with temps... uh oh 

The main cloud deck is just now approaching western Georgia...it’s going to be interesting to see how much cooling can happen before then.

Just now, GunBlade said:

To echo Brad P. The 3K NAM initialized with CLT dew point 3-4 degrees higher than they are currently. 
 

Matthews, NC NOAA station (just south of Charlotte) is currently at 29 degrees. 3K NAM initializes CLT at 33 degrees. BIG difference when 1 degree determines who gets cold rain or not.

Brad and about three other Mets I follow have expressed similar concern. Looks like the models don’t have a handle on the CAD (no surprise)

I need to start using whatever model suite you guys are using

GSP increased their totals on the ice accumulation map

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah the NAM actually lowered my ICE Totals but the HRRR still has over 3/4" here... models will go back and forth with minor changes from thus point on

I’ll happily donate my ice totals to anyone that wants them 

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Models trending warmer at the last minute, no way! Shouldn't complain though could save me from days of power issues. Last 2 NAM runs have ticked warmer 

I think they’re just starting to hone in on small nuances at this point more than anything. 3K more than doubled my ice total from 6z. We’re Nowcasting at this point anyways.

edit: plus the HRRR is trending towards a more significant event which is not good news. It was spot on 2 weeks ago. 

A lot of that falls with temps around 32 in many areas. I can’t imagine it accumulates at the rate depicted by the 3K if temps aren’t at least in the 30-31 range. 

Can a met in here explain why we are seeing so much warmth aloft when the low is practically in the gulf?

We need to remember that this high isnt nearly as transient as with recent storms. It’s much easier to lock in a long duration event when we have a feed of dry air from the north. I’m nervous about this one.

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

3K NAM getting worse here instead of better. Does show a little more sleet along the Blue Ridge 

Bad time to be a tree at South Mtn state park

2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I'm almost there.  I dont mind the cool temps as much as I mind the wet.  This is getting ridiculous, and if the summer ends up dry thats even more painful.  I was hoping to plant my first full one acre crop this year using my new gravity fed drip irrigation system.  (I'm NOT  a farmer).  This is a fun project for me that mother nature is not making any easier.  Cant get the field ready, too wet, and cant get my rain totes in place to catch the rain we have now.  

And even worse, the dogs have muddy paws every freaking day!  

I understand your pain with the muddy paws. This nonstop rain is putting a damper on our walks/runs. My area recorded over 90 inches of rain last year, so I don’t need it to be dry necessarily but maybe average levels of rain for once would be nice ...

What a painful sight today to see that slug of moisture moving through with temps in the low 30s. Meanwhile, historic snow on the way for Houston and Louisiana.
 

I’m over winter. I want torch. I want the SE ridge to deliver 80s and historic warmth every single day in March and not a single night below 45 until November of next year. If we can’t get snow, that’s totally fine but enough of it raining 10 inches a week in the 30s. 

Obviously the OP, but I’d be perfectly happy if this verified. Mid-upper 60s to wrap up February and maybe some severe weather to start tracking. 

Any winter without significant snow is a let down, but this winter is a solid C to me. Especially when you consider the fact that it was supposed to be a blow torch for the duration. At least we had some things to track, a few surprises and seasonal weather. 

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Guilty 

We’ll forgive you 

I blame whoever it was a few days ago that said “there’s no way we go 0/4 on these events.”

6 days out and the signal is still very much there. Consider that a win with the track record of the model runs for this winter. 

4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I think it’s the constant delaying of the cold  that kills hope. It seems like a mirage at this point.

Oh I agree entirely. I just think it’s hard to say definitively that it’s 7 days out, 10 days out or 5 days out. The last two snowfalls for this forum weren’t even on anyone’s radar up until 48 hrs before go time. Goes to show that it’s not worth stressing over anything past hour 100, and that might even be stretching it.

The signal is there for cold and shots at snow, why is everyone cliff diving? Of course the models aren’t going to be consistent. They’re missing half their data.

I don’t think I’ve ever been happier for a group to get snow than our upstate folks. I’ve lived in Wnc my whole life and I know very well how hard it is to get good snow south of 85, even into the foothills of SC. Congrats!

I wouldn’t  fret with the same models that showed the upstate getting rain up until 12 hrs before the storm hit last night. 

Managed to get about 3 inches (or maybe a little more) in Burke. Compaction and melting is on full speed but it was still nice to score a decent storm for once. I’d love more down the road but I can come to terms with spring now. Just wanted one good one.

Scored a little over 3 inches out of this one. Awesome storm! Melting is happening fast.